Tweet
After a really hot start, combined with a pair of miracles last week, my luck has been in the dumps the last few days. Feel like babbling to get my thoughts together on a Friday night.
Edit: Got a much needed outright win on Vandy ML tonight, so I'm in a much better mood. Thoughts haven't changed much, but I will sort into plays and leans.
Plays:
New England +1.5 at Miami. The Patriots let me down last week. I said I was going to be high on them this season, and I said Miami would underachieve. The issue here is that even though I took the Colts to beat Miami with Daniel Jones last week, the fact that Daniel Jones whooped their butt was pretty rock bottom. Miami was shockingly bad last week against a Colts defense that can be swiss cheese at times. New England looked decent last week, and they're getting +110 on the money line still. Miami is 9-1 ATS last 10 against New England, and have covered the last 4. If either team was playing anyone else, I would take New England and fade the Phins, but recent trends and the humiliating loss last week give me slight pause. Miami has just owned the Patriots since Brady left.
I talked myself into making New England a play this week. With a line less than 3, they're saying that New England is the better team here.
Miami has covered 9 in a row against New England, and I will call an end to the streak, probably for the 4th or 5th time by this point
KC +1 vs. Philly. This is why you have to evaluate on a weekly basis, because last week I said KC would have a down year and that Travis Kelce would retire after this season, yet I'm looking at them this week as a home dog for probably the first time in 6 years. This is a rematch of the Super Bowl where Philly whooped their butt. Except this time KC is missing Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. If this was in Philly the line would be much higher and I would lay off. However, getting Philly at pickem here sounds a little too easy, even if Patrick Mahomes is on track to be the greatest QB of all time.
Jacksonville +3.5 at Cincy. Trying to be careful here as apparently the world knows the Cincy typically gets off to slow starts, and it was no different last week against a Cleveland team with no QBs. Jacksonville also looked pretty decent last week, albeit against the Carolina Panthers. I saw the line at -3 at some points this week, which was surprising, but it's back up now. To me it's Jacksonville or nothing here, but keep it small.
San Fran -3 at New Orleans. Seems like a short line, but San Fran did not look good last week. And they're running a backup QB and a ton of injured players on the road. Unfortunately, I think this will be a really down year for the Saints. They really need a QB, and there may be a Manning available the next draft, but there's also a chance that Archie Sr. tells them not to draft him. We'll see.
Arizona -7 vs. Carolina. Last week I said "in what world should Arizona be a 6 pt favorite on the road against anyone?" Not surprisingly, they covered against New Orleans after an early hiccup. Carolina looked bad last week, but I still think people remember how Bryce Young played towards the end of last season and aren't as down on Carolina compared to last year (they ended the season 6-2 ATS). With Arizona's team total surprisingly high this season, I think they get the win here. Would lay the points even though this is a high consensus pick.
Leans:
Baltimore -11.5 vs. Cleveland. Division game, but this has the feel of a Baltimore route after Cleveland's defense kept Cincy in check last week. I think this game could get really ugly.
Moving this down to a lean. I didn't consider that public perception must be really low on Cleveland this season with 4 QBs, yet not having a any kind of a plan. Baltimore offense looked really, really good on SNF. The line probably should be closer to 13ish than 11ish.
Detroit -6.5 vs. Chicago. I tried to post a link to an article a few days ago, but I guess it was against the rules. Basically it was an article based on conversations with insiders discussing how immature Caleb Williams is. It's basically a caricature of a a bust QB. The guy doesn't listen to coaches, doesn't know the playbook, requires oversimplification, and has a bad attitude. Now I understand why the Bears team total is so low this season. Expect a bounceback here from the Lions. Detroit may not be the same team without Ben Johnson, but Dan Campbell is still a pretty good coach. And even a good coach like Ben Johnson needs buy-in from his QB to succeed.
Looking to take Atlanta, but despite Penix's solid performances, he's still 1-3 as a starter. Also not sure if JJ can carry over his second half momentum, or if it was just the bears.
2025 Season
4-3 Plays
1-1 Leans
Edit: Got a much needed outright win on Vandy ML tonight, so I'm in a much better mood. Thoughts haven't changed much, but I will sort into plays and leans.
Plays:
New England +1.5 at Miami. The Patriots let me down last week. I said I was going to be high on them this season, and I said Miami would underachieve. The issue here is that even though I took the Colts to beat Miami with Daniel Jones last week, the fact that Daniel Jones whooped their butt was pretty rock bottom. Miami was shockingly bad last week against a Colts defense that can be swiss cheese at times. New England looked decent last week, and they're getting +110 on the money line still. Miami is 9-1 ATS last 10 against New England, and have covered the last 4. If either team was playing anyone else, I would take New England and fade the Phins, but recent trends and the humiliating loss last week give me slight pause. Miami has just owned the Patriots since Brady left.
I talked myself into making New England a play this week. With a line less than 3, they're saying that New England is the better team here.
Miami has covered 9 in a row against New England, and I will call an end to the streak, probably for the 4th or 5th time by this point
KC +1 vs. Philly. This is why you have to evaluate on a weekly basis, because last week I said KC would have a down year and that Travis Kelce would retire after this season, yet I'm looking at them this week as a home dog for probably the first time in 6 years. This is a rematch of the Super Bowl where Philly whooped their butt. Except this time KC is missing Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. If this was in Philly the line would be much higher and I would lay off. However, getting Philly at pickem here sounds a little too easy, even if Patrick Mahomes is on track to be the greatest QB of all time.
Jacksonville +3.5 at Cincy. Trying to be careful here as apparently the world knows the Cincy typically gets off to slow starts, and it was no different last week against a Cleveland team with no QBs. Jacksonville also looked pretty decent last week, albeit against the Carolina Panthers. I saw the line at -3 at some points this week, which was surprising, but it's back up now. To me it's Jacksonville or nothing here, but keep it small.
San Fran -3 at New Orleans. Seems like a short line, but San Fran did not look good last week. And they're running a backup QB and a ton of injured players on the road. Unfortunately, I think this will be a really down year for the Saints. They really need a QB, and there may be a Manning available the next draft, but there's also a chance that Archie Sr. tells them not to draft him. We'll see.
Arizona -7 vs. Carolina. Last week I said "in what world should Arizona be a 6 pt favorite on the road against anyone?" Not surprisingly, they covered against New Orleans after an early hiccup. Carolina looked bad last week, but I still think people remember how Bryce Young played towards the end of last season and aren't as down on Carolina compared to last year (they ended the season 6-2 ATS). With Arizona's team total surprisingly high this season, I think they get the win here. Would lay the points even though this is a high consensus pick.
Leans:
Baltimore -11.5 vs. Cleveland. Division game, but this has the feel of a Baltimore route after Cleveland's defense kept Cincy in check last week. I think this game could get really ugly.
Moving this down to a lean. I didn't consider that public perception must be really low on Cleveland this season with 4 QBs, yet not having a any kind of a plan. Baltimore offense looked really, really good on SNF. The line probably should be closer to 13ish than 11ish.
Detroit -6.5 vs. Chicago. I tried to post a link to an article a few days ago, but I guess it was against the rules. Basically it was an article based on conversations with insiders discussing how immature Caleb Williams is. It's basically a caricature of a a bust QB. The guy doesn't listen to coaches, doesn't know the playbook, requires oversimplification, and has a bad attitude. Now I understand why the Bears team total is so low this season. Expect a bounceback here from the Lions. Detroit may not be the same team without Ben Johnson, but Dan Campbell is still a pretty good coach. And even a good coach like Ben Johnson needs buy-in from his QB to succeed.
Looking to take Atlanta, but despite Penix's solid performances, he's still 1-3 as a starter. Also not sure if JJ can carry over his second half momentum, or if it was just the bears.
2025 Season
4-3 Plays
1-1 Leans
Comment