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Getting this started early while my mind is still focused. Lots of +1.5 games, and I need to think through them.
Pass on the Thursday game. It's high consensus, but that's a ton of points for a Miami team that's on the downhill. With the way that defense is playing, it could get ugly fast. Not worth it. You'll probably be very right, or very wrong. And I tend to think a Buffalo blowout of the more likely outcome.
Plays:
LA Rams +3.5 at Philly. After some more thinking, I like the Rams a little better than the pick below for similar reasoning. The "they haven't played anyone angle" which I think is a fallacy. Probably how the Rams have quietly been able to go 2-0 and 2-0 ATS. My book has this expensive at -120, but i locked it in in case there's some movement tomorrow and it gets down to 3. I really want that hook and I'll pay for it.
Arizona +2 at San Francisco. This is obviously pricing in Brock Purdy not playing. He's progressing well, and has a chance to play this week, but I think they hold off. Mac Jones played well last week and turf toe is something you just needa lay off of or you're going to aggravate it again. With that said, I'm thinking Arizona in this spot, regardless of whether Purdy plays. I've seen a lot of "they haven't played anyone" logic lately, and so far that logic is 0-2 on games i followed closely. The defense is playing well enough, San Fran is 2-0 and winning ugly.
I remember Arizona being pathetic against the run at times last year, but they used their first 5 draft picks on the defense this year. Quick google search shows that their first rounder hasn't done much the first couple of games, and their third rounder is on PUP, so it's mainly been the defense stepping up.
My main angle here is the over 8.5 team win total, along with the Niners 10.5. I like them both to go over, so I needa see if I can find 7 wins elsewhere for the cardinals and 9 more for the Niners who are missing the starting QB and their best WR.
This line got as high as -3 with Brock Purdy having a shot at playing this week, but it dropped back down after his highly doubtful designation.
Minnesota -2.5 vs. Cincy. The Backup Bowl. Carson Wentz vs. Jake Browning. We've seen both of these guys play a lot, but only Browning with the Bengals, and he's looked good.I think Cincy already broke the string of "slow starts" by getting two close wins this season.
This line has moved up to 3 for some reason. In that case, I'll give the 3. In a crapshoot game, I feel like there's too much value on Browning who has looked good whenever he plays.
Atlanta -4.5 at Carolina. I likely pass on this one altogether. Line seems about right. Atlanta's offense looked terrible on SNF. Carolina was able to get a very unlikely backdoor. This is looking like it could be the consensus pick of the week, but I'll need to check back.
This is like the biggest line movement I've ever seen off an opening line from Sunday without an injury. Atlanta went from -2.5 to -5.5. I think Penix plays better this week with an inferior opponent. He's a big play or bust kinda QB. That should be enough to cover the line.
Thinking About:
Houston +1.5 at Jacksonville. This is probably a "must-win" angle for Houston Backers. Overall, Jacksonville has played better this season, but Houston drops to 0-3 with a loss and the Colts are favored at Tenn. Will need to check the division winner line and see how I feel about it.
Pittsburgh -1 at New England. Slightly surprised to see Pitt as a favorite on the road here. But I guess it is Aaron Rodgers, and he did play well in week 1. New England got a nice win last week, but they blew a 12-0 lead and needed almost a miracle to take the lead late in that game. Giving this some thought. Not sure if the Patriots won because Miami's defense is awful, or because their offense is improving. This is the same team that lost 17-10 against the Raiders who I regretfully just watched for the past 2 hours.
Chiefs -5.5 at NY Giants. Primetime Giants is a surprise. Chiefs 0-2, and at +300 to win the division. Sounds fair. We're only 2 games in. I would actually risk a teaser on Chiefs ML if you have another game that looks good if you add 6.
I think I would take a shot here on a teaser/ml parlay KC +0.5 and Atlanta +1.5. Will make that a play this week.
2025 Season:
6-6 Plays
3-1 Leans
Pass on the Thursday game. It's high consensus, but that's a ton of points for a Miami team that's on the downhill. With the way that defense is playing, it could get ugly fast. Not worth it. You'll probably be very right, or very wrong. And I tend to think a Buffalo blowout of the more likely outcome.
Plays:
LA Rams +3.5 at Philly. After some more thinking, I like the Rams a little better than the pick below for similar reasoning. The "they haven't played anyone angle" which I think is a fallacy. Probably how the Rams have quietly been able to go 2-0 and 2-0 ATS. My book has this expensive at -120, but i locked it in in case there's some movement tomorrow and it gets down to 3. I really want that hook and I'll pay for it.
Arizona +2 at San Francisco. This is obviously pricing in Brock Purdy not playing. He's progressing well, and has a chance to play this week, but I think they hold off. Mac Jones played well last week and turf toe is something you just needa lay off of or you're going to aggravate it again. With that said, I'm thinking Arizona in this spot, regardless of whether Purdy plays. I've seen a lot of "they haven't played anyone" logic lately, and so far that logic is 0-2 on games i followed closely. The defense is playing well enough, San Fran is 2-0 and winning ugly.
I remember Arizona being pathetic against the run at times last year, but they used their first 5 draft picks on the defense this year. Quick google search shows that their first rounder hasn't done much the first couple of games, and their third rounder is on PUP, so it's mainly been the defense stepping up.
My main angle here is the over 8.5 team win total, along with the Niners 10.5. I like them both to go over, so I needa see if I can find 7 wins elsewhere for the cardinals and 9 more for the Niners who are missing the starting QB and their best WR.
This line got as high as -3 with Brock Purdy having a shot at playing this week, but it dropped back down after his highly doubtful designation.
Minnesota -2.5 vs. Cincy. The Backup Bowl. Carson Wentz vs. Jake Browning. We've seen both of these guys play a lot, but only Browning with the Bengals, and he's looked good.I think Cincy already broke the string of "slow starts" by getting two close wins this season.
This line has moved up to 3 for some reason. In that case, I'll give the 3. In a crapshoot game, I feel like there's too much value on Browning who has looked good whenever he plays.
Atlanta -4.5 at Carolina. I likely pass on this one altogether. Line seems about right. Atlanta's offense looked terrible on SNF. Carolina was able to get a very unlikely backdoor. This is looking like it could be the consensus pick of the week, but I'll need to check back.
This is like the biggest line movement I've ever seen off an opening line from Sunday without an injury. Atlanta went from -2.5 to -5.5. I think Penix plays better this week with an inferior opponent. He's a big play or bust kinda QB. That should be enough to cover the line.
Thinking About:
Houston +1.5 at Jacksonville. This is probably a "must-win" angle for Houston Backers. Overall, Jacksonville has played better this season, but Houston drops to 0-3 with a loss and the Colts are favored at Tenn. Will need to check the division winner line and see how I feel about it.
Pittsburgh -1 at New England. Slightly surprised to see Pitt as a favorite on the road here. But I guess it is Aaron Rodgers, and he did play well in week 1. New England got a nice win last week, but they blew a 12-0 lead and needed almost a miracle to take the lead late in that game. Giving this some thought. Not sure if the Patriots won because Miami's defense is awful, or because their offense is improving. This is the same team that lost 17-10 against the Raiders who I regretfully just watched for the past 2 hours.
Chiefs -5.5 at NY Giants. Primetime Giants is a surprise. Chiefs 0-2, and at +300 to win the division. Sounds fair. We're only 2 games in. I would actually risk a teaser on Chiefs ML if you have another game that looks good if you add 6.
I think I would take a shot here on a teaser/ml parlay KC +0.5 and Atlanta +1.5. Will make that a play this week.
2025 Season:
6-6 Plays
3-1 Leans