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Getting an early start again. Have to mention that the Rams game is probably the second worst beat I've ever had in my entire life. A blocked FG for a TD with zeros on the clock is pretty bad, but having +6.5 in basketball and LEADING by 8 with 3:30 left and somehow losing by 9 will still be the worst beat I've ever had. That's an 18-1 run in 3:30 when most women's basketball games teams don't score 18 pts in a whole quarter.
Anyways, here goes with the notes.
Plays:
Green Bay -7 at Dallas. Dallas getting this many pts at home seems a bit high, especially the way Green Bay played last week. But Dallas's defense has been absolutely horrid this season. I'm kinda picturing this as a big of a repeat of the playoff game from a couple of years ago. Dallas will get their points in, but the defense just can't stop anyone right now. Green Bay by double digits.
Edit: Still like Green Bay, but no longer think this is a repeat of that playoff game. Props and line movement on the total are telling me under. Green Bay 20-7 or 27-14.
Minnesota -2.5 at Pittsburgh. Very surprised to see Carson Wentz favored at Pittsburgh considering they're both 2-1 teams, and one team has Aaron Rodgers. Lean Minnesota at first glance. I think 3-1 start for Minnesota keeps them on pace for over 10.5 wins this season after JJ Mccarthy comes back. They have a murderous schedule coming up and need this win. Next 6 at Pitt, at Cleveland, vs. Philly, at LA Chargers, at Baltimore, at Detroit.
Getting these next 2 games, plus a split of the next 4 will put them at 6-3 with and allow them to finish the season 5-3 to hit that win total with JJ.
Edit: This game is actually in Ireland, so the line makes a little more sense. Still like Minnesota though.
Atlanta +1 vs. Washington. Looks like Washington is going to need to keep winning to keep up with Philly. Atlanta has historically played them very tough, and Washington has needed last minute drives to win. Lean Atlanta off the embarassing loss last week. Washington's defense is not special, and Mariota facing his old team is probably not great for him. Penix should be able to big play the ball most of the game.
Atlanta fired their WR coach this week. Might be a spark to ignite some passing.
New England -5.5 vs. Carolina. This feels like a game that New England covers by the skin of their teeth. The Patriots have played decent, but one could argue that Carolina has played better the last 4-5 quarters. This line feels a bit high in that case. Like New England to win by 6 in a nail biter. Possibly last 8 minute field goal and a stand on the last possession.
Indy +3.5 at LA Rams. I think this Daniel Jones story has legs, and I'm willing to go about 5-6 weeks with it. Won't buy that the Rams are angry about the loss on Sunday. It was downright shameful how they couldn't score for the last 25 mins or so of the game, and allowed 21 pts to a Philly team that was dead before the half. Line opened at 4.5 but is being bet down. Feels about right for the Daniel Jones deniers to continue fading him. I think Indy jumps out 7-0 or 14-0 in this one in a wtf moment.
Indy's team win total is at 10.5 right now with +100 on over. I only see a reasonable 7 more including the next 2 games, so this one is key to the over.
Baltimore -2.5 at KC. The Chiefs just aren't good as a pickem in the 4 oclock primetime slot lately. Getting +125 on the ML for the Chiefs at home against a team that has serious flaws seems like too much value.
Leans:
Arizona +1 vs. Seattle. This line has a bit of movement off the open of Arizona -1.5 to +1 in a couple of days. It's a bit negligible to the outcome (probably), but noteworthy. I suspect the line movement may be from James Conner being put on IR. Seattle blew out the Saints, but that's not saying much this season.
Lean Arizona for now due to the size of Seattle's victory. Though I do remember taking Arizona last year, and Geno and Kenneth Walker basically punished them on the ground with little resistance.
Detroit -9 vs. Cleveland. Rumors of the Lion's demise were greatly exaggerated. The Lions are still very much a good team. You just never know what Cleveland team is going to show up. They usually do when you least expect it. I think 9 pts is enough to entice people to take Cleveland this week. I don't really expect a blowout, but just enough to cover.
San Fran -3.5 vs. Jacksonville. Going to throw this in as a lean as well. San Fran has been winning ugly. They get Purdy back this week, but they're still a wounded team that we don't know really know what to think of them. Jacksonville has been incredibly inconsistent for several years now.
No Play
Houston -7 vs. Tennessee. The Titans are only looking slightly improved from last season. With Houston in a must win or season's over, I expect them to play pretty desperate this week. Not sure if I feel comfortable laying the points. This may be a teaser scenario.
This is probably going to be a survivor play for a lot of people this week. So this is a no play on the -7. I was going to say teaser with green bay, but I don't think you'll need to tease there. Should just play that one straight.
MNF
NY Jets +3 at Miami. I've been talking down about Miami this whole season, and at 0-3 Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat to be first coach fired as I predicted. Zac Taylor may have inadvertently had his job saved with Joe Burrow's 3 month injury.
This feels like a Jets play, but I won't do a play or a lean on them. The Jets haven't been good on MNF for pretty much my entire betting life, and I'm not going to risk my money on them. Miami's defense has been terrible, but their offense has been able to move the ball easily at times the last two games. The Jets were able to cover by a fluke last game, and expecting that to happen again, and for them to hold off a Tua last drive is not something I'm signing up for. NO PLAY or take Miami.
I'm seeing a lot of Jets love, so I'm putting a lean on Miami. Don't think Miami will lose every game, but they're 0-3 and have at Carolina, vs. LA Chargers, at Cleveland, at Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington coming up. That's probably 2-8 or 3-7 right there.
Cincy +7/7.5 at Denver. I thought it was a bit suspect that the Bengals were desperate to find another QB after Burrow's injury. Browning has been very good at times, and it felt like they may be able to survive without Burrow. Didn't look like it last week. Denver really gained people's trust last year going 9-3 during a stretch last season and 10-2 ATS. It felt like Sean Payton had Bo Nix in the perfect system to help him succeed. Maybe they just ran into tough opponents (Daniel Jones and Chargers).
Small lean to Cincy here, but the defense really worries me. That's the type of defense a successful system QB can carve up. And that's what Bo Nix is, a perfect system QB that can RPO and hit the first read.
I pause because the majority of the time that I've seen Jake Browning, he's been moving the ball and scoring points. He's not an unknown.
Will interesting if this line actually goes down with all the teaser and ML parlay money that is likely to come on game day.
Last week 2-2 plays. The games I was "thinking about" went 2-1, but I didn't list them as leans, so I won't count them.
2025 Season
8-8 Plays
3-1 Leans
Anyways, here goes with the notes.
Plays:
Green Bay -7 at Dallas. Dallas getting this many pts at home seems a bit high, especially the way Green Bay played last week. But Dallas's defense has been absolutely horrid this season. I'm kinda picturing this as a big of a repeat of the playoff game from a couple of years ago. Dallas will get their points in, but the defense just can't stop anyone right now. Green Bay by double digits.
Edit: Still like Green Bay, but no longer think this is a repeat of that playoff game. Props and line movement on the total are telling me under. Green Bay 20-7 or 27-14.
Minnesota -2.5 at Pittsburgh. Very surprised to see Carson Wentz favored at Pittsburgh considering they're both 2-1 teams, and one team has Aaron Rodgers. Lean Minnesota at first glance. I think 3-1 start for Minnesota keeps them on pace for over 10.5 wins this season after JJ Mccarthy comes back. They have a murderous schedule coming up and need this win. Next 6 at Pitt, at Cleveland, vs. Philly, at LA Chargers, at Baltimore, at Detroit.
Getting these next 2 games, plus a split of the next 4 will put them at 6-3 with and allow them to finish the season 5-3 to hit that win total with JJ.
Edit: This game is actually in Ireland, so the line makes a little more sense. Still like Minnesota though.
Atlanta +1 vs. Washington. Looks like Washington is going to need to keep winning to keep up with Philly. Atlanta has historically played them very tough, and Washington has needed last minute drives to win. Lean Atlanta off the embarassing loss last week. Washington's defense is not special, and Mariota facing his old team is probably not great for him. Penix should be able to big play the ball most of the game.
Atlanta fired their WR coach this week. Might be a spark to ignite some passing.
New England -5.5 vs. Carolina. This feels like a game that New England covers by the skin of their teeth. The Patriots have played decent, but one could argue that Carolina has played better the last 4-5 quarters. This line feels a bit high in that case. Like New England to win by 6 in a nail biter. Possibly last 8 minute field goal and a stand on the last possession.
Indy +3.5 at LA Rams. I think this Daniel Jones story has legs, and I'm willing to go about 5-6 weeks with it. Won't buy that the Rams are angry about the loss on Sunday. It was downright shameful how they couldn't score for the last 25 mins or so of the game, and allowed 21 pts to a Philly team that was dead before the half. Line opened at 4.5 but is being bet down. Feels about right for the Daniel Jones deniers to continue fading him. I think Indy jumps out 7-0 or 14-0 in this one in a wtf moment.
Indy's team win total is at 10.5 right now with +100 on over. I only see a reasonable 7 more including the next 2 games, so this one is key to the over.
Baltimore -2.5 at KC. The Chiefs just aren't good as a pickem in the 4 oclock primetime slot lately. Getting +125 on the ML for the Chiefs at home against a team that has serious flaws seems like too much value.
Leans:
Arizona +1 vs. Seattle. This line has a bit of movement off the open of Arizona -1.5 to +1 in a couple of days. It's a bit negligible to the outcome (probably), but noteworthy. I suspect the line movement may be from James Conner being put on IR. Seattle blew out the Saints, but that's not saying much this season.
Lean Arizona for now due to the size of Seattle's victory. Though I do remember taking Arizona last year, and Geno and Kenneth Walker basically punished them on the ground with little resistance.
Detroit -9 vs. Cleveland. Rumors of the Lion's demise were greatly exaggerated. The Lions are still very much a good team. You just never know what Cleveland team is going to show up. They usually do when you least expect it. I think 9 pts is enough to entice people to take Cleveland this week. I don't really expect a blowout, but just enough to cover.
San Fran -3.5 vs. Jacksonville. Going to throw this in as a lean as well. San Fran has been winning ugly. They get Purdy back this week, but they're still a wounded team that we don't know really know what to think of them. Jacksonville has been incredibly inconsistent for several years now.
No Play
Houston -7 vs. Tennessee. The Titans are only looking slightly improved from last season. With Houston in a must win or season's over, I expect them to play pretty desperate this week. Not sure if I feel comfortable laying the points. This may be a teaser scenario.
This is probably going to be a survivor play for a lot of people this week. So this is a no play on the -7. I was going to say teaser with green bay, but I don't think you'll need to tease there. Should just play that one straight.
MNF
NY Jets +3 at Miami. I've been talking down about Miami this whole season, and at 0-3 Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat to be first coach fired as I predicted. Zac Taylor may have inadvertently had his job saved with Joe Burrow's 3 month injury.
This feels like a Jets play, but I won't do a play or a lean on them. The Jets haven't been good on MNF for pretty much my entire betting life, and I'm not going to risk my money on them. Miami's defense has been terrible, but their offense has been able to move the ball easily at times the last two games. The Jets were able to cover by a fluke last game, and expecting that to happen again, and for them to hold off a Tua last drive is not something I'm signing up for. NO PLAY or take Miami.
I'm seeing a lot of Jets love, so I'm putting a lean on Miami. Don't think Miami will lose every game, but they're 0-3 and have at Carolina, vs. LA Chargers, at Cleveland, at Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Washington coming up. That's probably 2-8 or 3-7 right there.
Cincy +7/7.5 at Denver. I thought it was a bit suspect that the Bengals were desperate to find another QB after Burrow's injury. Browning has been very good at times, and it felt like they may be able to survive without Burrow. Didn't look like it last week. Denver really gained people's trust last year going 9-3 during a stretch last season and 10-2 ATS. It felt like Sean Payton had Bo Nix in the perfect system to help him succeed. Maybe they just ran into tough opponents (Daniel Jones and Chargers).
Small lean to Cincy here, but the defense really worries me. That's the type of defense a successful system QB can carve up. And that's what Bo Nix is, a perfect system QB that can RPO and hit the first read.
I pause because the majority of the time that I've seen Jake Browning, he's been moving the ball and scoring points. He's not an unknown.
Will interesting if this line actually goes down with all the teaser and ML parlay money that is likely to come on game day.
Last week 2-2 plays. The games I was "thinking about" went 2-1, but I didn't list them as leans, so I won't count them.
2025 Season
8-8 Plays
3-1 Leans
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