Week 11 Notes

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  • recovering77
    Public Fader
    • Mar 2007
    • 495

    Week 11 Notes

    Last week 4-3

    System 1 continues to be on a tear. Last Week 5-2-1
    System 2: Last Week 0-1

    I changed the line on a couple of games because I go by what the line was around Friday/Saturday. Just forgot to update. This is just for tracking purposes.


    Minnesota -3 vs. Chicago. We're into rematch season. Rematch of Week 1 MNF where the Bears blew a 17-6 lead and scored nothing in the second half until the last 2 minutes. I'm still kinda holding onto that team total in my head. I think Minnesota can flirt with 9ish wins, which means they'd have to have a pretty strong next 8 games and win a few vs. teams they should beat.


    San Fran / Arizona OVER 48.5. Another rematch game. First game was a snoozefest with Murray and Mac Jones. Was 44.5 that game, which ended 16-15. We're up to 48.5 this time with Purdy and Brissett in. Looking at the over here, but still looking.


    Kansas City -3.5 at Denver. The Broncos are 4-1 , 4-1 ATS, and covered their last 4 at home. Getting the field goal and the hook seems excessive, even for KC. Looking at the Chiefs in this one. The Chiefs are also 1-4 ATS on the road this season. If they lose another one, they're in serious danger of missing the playoffs.

    LA Rams -3 vs. Seattle. I think everyone knows by now that Seattle has won like 10 games in a row on the road. Both coming into the game 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Both off blowout victories, but the Rams game ended up being closes than it was. Think I like the Rams here.


    Cleveland +8.5 vs. Baltimore. The Browns have played very well at home this season. The line seems high, but it's because it's Baltimore and they're coming off 3 straight impressive wins. This is in contrast to Denver who have been winning, but barely against teams they shouldn't have problems with.



    Pass:

    NY Giants +7.5 vs. Green Bay. Normally I would be all over the Giants this week after they fired Daboll. Unfortunately, I'm having trouble pulling the trigger with 7 and the hook at home against the Packers who have looked terrible the last 2 weeks. I will likely reluctantly pass on this one.



    System 1 (11-3-1):
    Green Bay -7.5 - Tough to grade because it was 7 at many books throughout the week, 7.5 only came everywhere late.Think I will treat it as a push.
    Jacksonville +3 - W
    Dallas -3 - W



    System 2 (3-4):
    Washington +2.5 - L
    Philly -2.5 - W
    Last edited by recovering77; 11-20-2025, 07:48 AM.
    2023
    39-39-2 Plays, 26-25 Leans, System Plays (2-1), Half System Plays (2-4)
    Playoffs 6-4 Plays, 4-1 Leans

    2022
    43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
    Playoffs 8-4 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays

    2021
    36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans; Playoffs 3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans

    2020
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans; Playoffs 6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2019
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
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