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Why do I ever play anything other than the system? Feels like I'm wasting valuable picks every week. I think it's because it's doing so well that I figure it's going to even out eventually.
Last week 2-3 picks.
System 1: 2-0-1, or 2-1 depending on the line you got.
System 2: 1-1
Not really feeling this week, but will try and put something together.
Minnesota +6.5 at Green Bay. Will likely have to go with Minnesota again for the 3rd week in a row. Really sick of JJ Mccarthy not doing anything for 3 quarters, then teasing me in the 4th the last 2 weeks. However, Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Jordan Love doesn't play well when he's nursing injuries. He injured his shoulder last week. Was able to play through because it was the Giants crappy defense, but the Vikings are a step up.
Lean under as well. Probably the only way Minnesota can cover.
KC -3.5 vs. Indy. KC has covered 4 in a row at home, and won all 4 by double digits. Can't say that Indy hasn't played anyone yet. They have wins over Denver and the Chargers. KC may be having a slightly down year, but look at that schedule. Lost to Denver, Buffalo, Philly, LA Chargers, and at Jacksonville who just walloped the Chargers. They've done pretty well against bad defenses, and I consider Indy to have a bad defense.
Atlanta +2.5 at New Orleans. Having Kirk Cousins in moved the line 5.5 points? Cousins has been BAD this season. Will get released this offseason, and the way he's played the contract will be so tiny he may just retire. The Saints are 1-4 ATS at home this season. The Falcon are 1-4 ATS on the road, and losers of 4 in a row on the road.
Oh yeah, Atlanta isn't just missing Penix. They're also missing Drake London which is a pretty big deal. Line move makes a little more sense now. Still, that's a huge move for a team with Tyler Shough as their QB.
Carolina +7 at San Fran. Line seems a bit high considering Carolina's surprising 6-5 record and Bryce Young coming off throwing for 448 yards and 3 TDs. However, the Niners had a pretty impressive win last week. And Carolina has had a couple of pretty ugly duds vs. good teams this year. The away team has done pretty well on Monday night this year. That's one thing I'm not trying to do as much anymore. Fade the trends based on the time slot of the game. Like how underdogs have killed it on Thursdays, and they continue to kill it.
System 1 (13-3-2):
Cincy +7.5 - W
LV Raiders -4 - L
Atlanta +2.5 - W
System 2 (4-5):
Arizona +2.5 - L
Philly -3 - L
Carolina +6.5 - ?
Last week 2-3 picks.
System 1: 2-0-1, or 2-1 depending on the line you got.
System 2: 1-1
Not really feeling this week, but will try and put something together.
Minnesota +6.5 at Green Bay. Will likely have to go with Minnesota again for the 3rd week in a row. Really sick of JJ Mccarthy not doing anything for 3 quarters, then teasing me in the 4th the last 2 weeks. However, Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Jordan Love doesn't play well when he's nursing injuries. He injured his shoulder last week. Was able to play through because it was the Giants crappy defense, but the Vikings are a step up.
Lean under as well. Probably the only way Minnesota can cover.
KC -3.5 vs. Indy. KC has covered 4 in a row at home, and won all 4 by double digits. Can't say that Indy hasn't played anyone yet. They have wins over Denver and the Chargers. KC may be having a slightly down year, but look at that schedule. Lost to Denver, Buffalo, Philly, LA Chargers, and at Jacksonville who just walloped the Chargers. They've done pretty well against bad defenses, and I consider Indy to have a bad defense.
Atlanta +2.5 at New Orleans. Having Kirk Cousins in moved the line 5.5 points? Cousins has been BAD this season. Will get released this offseason, and the way he's played the contract will be so tiny he may just retire. The Saints are 1-4 ATS at home this season. The Falcon are 1-4 ATS on the road, and losers of 4 in a row on the road.
Oh yeah, Atlanta isn't just missing Penix. They're also missing Drake London which is a pretty big deal. Line move makes a little more sense now. Still, that's a huge move for a team with Tyler Shough as their QB.
Carolina +7 at San Fran. Line seems a bit high considering Carolina's surprising 6-5 record and Bryce Young coming off throwing for 448 yards and 3 TDs. However, the Niners had a pretty impressive win last week. And Carolina has had a couple of pretty ugly duds vs. good teams this year. The away team has done pretty well on Monday night this year. That's one thing I'm not trying to do as much anymore. Fade the trends based on the time slot of the game. Like how underdogs have killed it on Thursdays, and they continue to kill it.
System 1 (13-3-2):
Cincy +7.5 - W
LV Raiders -4 - L
Atlanta +2.5 - W
System 2 (4-5):
Arizona +2.5 - L
Philly -3 - L
Carolina +6.5 - ?