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All beats are hard, but I had a pretty tough loss with the under on that Jacksonville last game. Forget that they needed to score more than 14.5 in the last 7 mins or so. Forget that Trevor Lawrence threw 3 picks on his side of the field, one returned for a TD. Forget that Jacksonville had 70 yard TD on 2 running plays to start the game. I still would have won if Jacksonville could have gotten a 3rd and 1, or a second try 4th and 1 to end the game. They could not. /End Rant.
Last Week 2-3 Plays.
System 1: 2-1
System 2: 0-3
My plays are basically going to be the systems this week, but I like them.
New Orleans +5.5 at Miami. I think I was wrong about Tyler Shough. They actually might not need to tank for a QB. Shough isn't lighting the world on fire, but he's been miles better than he was in preseason and training camp. 70% completion percentage the last couple of games. Miami's defense should let them keep this game competitive. Miami is off their bye week.
Washington +6.5 vs. Denver. The Broncos may be the best example of playing down to their competition that I've seen. They've beaten and covered against Philly, Dallas, and KC, but didn't cover against the Jets, Raiders, and Giants. Line seems a bit high for a home team that can score at times, but with Denver's win against KC, and Washington losing 6 in a row, including 4 blowouts against good teams, +3.5 isn't gonna cut it. Daniels is out, but Mclaurin will be back this week. Washington is off their bye week.
NY Jets +3 or Team Total Over 16.5 vs. Atlanta. Not sure if I want to do Jets or the Team Total yet. Funny that a team with arguably the worst QB in the league has somehow covered 4 games in a row, and without Garrett Wilson or Quinnen Williams for much of that. Tyrod Taylor gets the start this week. The Jets are too dumb to tank for a QB, and I don't think there's blue chip prospects in next year's class. Unless the scouts really like Indiana or Vanderbilt's QB. The Falcons aren't out of the playoffs yet I don't think, but their season is effectively over with Penix done for the year and Drake London out again.
I may take the Team Total Over 16.5 instead. Seems high against Atlanta's defense, but they haven't put together 2 good performances in a row all year.
Carolina +10.5 vs. LA Rams. Bryce Young followed up his 400 yard passing performance with a dud in primetime. LA Rams crushed Tampa in primetime. Feels like recency bias is pretty strong here. Carolina has yet to put up back to back dud games all season. I like the trend here.
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. Arizona. This is a high consensus play, but Tampa has lost 3 in a row after that hot start. Tampa is coming off a blowout loss. Baker is expected to play, but the thought of him taking one bad hit and them having to trot out Bridgewater again is probably why the line is lower than you would expect.
Seattle -13 vs. Minnesota. Seatle couldn't cover this line against the Titans last week, not sure how the public expects them to cover against a Minnesota team that actually has some talent. JJ Mccarthy is out, and some people would argue that anyone is an upgrade over him. Sometimes the backup surprises you, but sometimes the backup falls on their face. I think this is the latter.
All 4 weeknight games qualify for System 1. I'm not going to count those officially, because I only do Sunday, but here they are in case you're wondering. Again, it's not a hard system to figure out.
System 1 Weeknights: (Not Counting This Towards Season Total)
Detroit -3 - L
Kansas City -3.5 -L
Baltimore -7 - L
Philly -7 - L
Holy Cow, 0-4. Was not expecting that, but system 1 was due for a reversion big time.
System 1 (15-4-2):
New Orleans +5.5 - W
Washington +6.5 - W
New England -7.5 -W
System 2 (4-8):
Carolina +10.5 - W
Last Week 2-3 Plays.
System 1: 2-1
System 2: 0-3
My plays are basically going to be the systems this week, but I like them.
New Orleans +5.5 at Miami. I think I was wrong about Tyler Shough. They actually might not need to tank for a QB. Shough isn't lighting the world on fire, but he's been miles better than he was in preseason and training camp. 70% completion percentage the last couple of games. Miami's defense should let them keep this game competitive. Miami is off their bye week.
Washington +6.5 vs. Denver. The Broncos may be the best example of playing down to their competition that I've seen. They've beaten and covered against Philly, Dallas, and KC, but didn't cover against the Jets, Raiders, and Giants. Line seems a bit high for a home team that can score at times, but with Denver's win against KC, and Washington losing 6 in a row, including 4 blowouts against good teams, +3.5 isn't gonna cut it. Daniels is out, but Mclaurin will be back this week. Washington is off their bye week.
NY Jets +3 or Team Total Over 16.5 vs. Atlanta. Not sure if I want to do Jets or the Team Total yet. Funny that a team with arguably the worst QB in the league has somehow covered 4 games in a row, and without Garrett Wilson or Quinnen Williams for much of that. Tyrod Taylor gets the start this week. The Jets are too dumb to tank for a QB, and I don't think there's blue chip prospects in next year's class. Unless the scouts really like Indiana or Vanderbilt's QB. The Falcons aren't out of the playoffs yet I don't think, but their season is effectively over with Penix done for the year and Drake London out again.
I may take the Team Total Over 16.5 instead. Seems high against Atlanta's defense, but they haven't put together 2 good performances in a row all year.
Carolina +10.5 vs. LA Rams. Bryce Young followed up his 400 yard passing performance with a dud in primetime. LA Rams crushed Tampa in primetime. Feels like recency bias is pretty strong here. Carolina has yet to put up back to back dud games all season. I like the trend here.
Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. Arizona. This is a high consensus play, but Tampa has lost 3 in a row after that hot start. Tampa is coming off a blowout loss. Baker is expected to play, but the thought of him taking one bad hit and them having to trot out Bridgewater again is probably why the line is lower than you would expect.
Seattle -13 vs. Minnesota. Seatle couldn't cover this line against the Titans last week, not sure how the public expects them to cover against a Minnesota team that actually has some talent. JJ Mccarthy is out, and some people would argue that anyone is an upgrade over him. Sometimes the backup surprises you, but sometimes the backup falls on their face. I think this is the latter.
All 4 weeknight games qualify for System 1. I'm not going to count those officially, because I only do Sunday, but here they are in case you're wondering. Again, it's not a hard system to figure out.
System 1 Weeknights: (Not Counting This Towards Season Total)
Detroit -3 - L
Kansas City -3.5 -L
Baltimore -7 - L
Philly -7 - L
Holy Cow, 0-4. Was not expecting that, but system 1 was due for a reversion big time.
System 1 (15-4-2):
New Orleans +5.5 - W
Washington +6.5 - W
New England -7.5 -W
System 2 (4-8):
Carolina +10.5 - W