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Finally a little bit of luck last week. Figures I'd finally have a good week when I scale the wagers back and try to relax for the holiday weekend.
System 1 is hitting at an unsustainable pace. But maybe the way Thursday/Friday played out was good enough to reset.
Last week: 4-1 Plays
System 1: 3-0
System 2: 1-0
System 1 is setting up like last Thursday/Friday again with basically all favorites (they all lost), but it's the way I've been picking it so can't do anything about it. Sad, because I know this many picks is going to tank the win percentage either way.
Detroit -3 would qualify for System 1, but like last week I'm not counting Thursday games.
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Miami. Did Mike Mike McDaniel just save his job? After starting the season 1-6, Miami has quietly won 4 out of their last 5. The Jets have quietly covered 5 in a row. I have a feeling about the Jets, but since it's against my system I may pass.
Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Indy. Another game that goes against the system. This is a wide open division all of a sudden. Crazy Jacksonville is +145, Indy +140, and Houston +115 to win this division. Can Indy lose the division after that 7-1 start? Can Houston win it after that 3-5 start?
Indy has a tough schedule coming up. I changed my mind. I actually like Indy here now. I think they're going to be the ones fighting for the division with Houston at the end.
Looking at Indy's schedule closer, there's a plausable scenario where Indy could lose every game. This really is a must win IMO. Jacksonville should win at least 2 more to get to 10 wins.
Houston should win 3 more to get to 10 wins. And they have the tiebreaker over Indy, so they can be a game behind going into the last week and still get in.
Minnesota +1.5 vs. Washington. Great game by Mariota on Sunday night. But if they trend continues, he's going to follow up the next game with a dud. Minnesota has done well at times when they've had a chance to exploit bad defenses this season. JJ has done it twice, but I'm pretty sick of betting the Vikings. This is only under consideration if Mariota and JJ start. Otherwise no play. Daniels has a chance to play this weekend, and it looks like JJ is in after sitting out last game due to a concussion.
Minnesota also clinched the under on their season win total last week.
Daniels is in. JJ is in. Still thinking about it.
Atlanta +7 vs. Seattle. Seattle came into the Rams game on a 10 game road winning streak (and 10-0 ATS). They lost that game, but covered. Then they won, but lost ATS at Tennessee the week after. So both the 10 game road and ATS winning streaks are over now. Do they start it right back up again, or does it continue reversion?
Sam Darnold hasn't looked great the last 3 weeks. 2 TDs and 4 INTs over that span. Granted he's done enough for what he's been asked. After the crappy performance last week against the Jets, I think Atlanta's defense can step up this week.
Cincy +5.5 at Buffalo. Looking closely at this one. I still think Baltimore wins the division, but the line seems low with the Ravens as a 6 pt favorite tomorrow and likely winner to take a game and a tiebreaker from the Steelers. They are likely still pricing in the small possibility of Cincy winning the division.
Buffalo is still in a fight with New England for the division. If Buffalo beats New England on the next head to head, and New England loses at the Ravens next week, it could get interesting.
Green Bay -6.5 vs. Bears. Is the fatigue over with fading the bears yet? Maybe, but Vegas is really low on a Bears team with 9 wins right now.
LA Chargers +2 vs. Philly. This play would go against the system, but for some reason I feel like Phily is running away with this division a little too easily. Dallas has an easy schedule coming up. They could win out. Philly Would need to win this game and 2 more to lock up the division, and I don't see it coming easily.
System 1 (18-4-2):
Minnesota +2.5 - W
Miami -2.5 - W
Tampa Bay -8.5 - L
Indy -1.5 - L
LA Rams -8.5 - W
KC -3.5 - L
Philly -2.5 - L
System 2 (5-8):
Atlanta +7 (This actually qualifies more for system 2 than system 1) - L
System 1 is hitting at an unsustainable pace. But maybe the way Thursday/Friday played out was good enough to reset.
Last week: 4-1 Plays
System 1: 3-0
System 2: 1-0
System 1 is setting up like last Thursday/Friday again with basically all favorites (they all lost), but it's the way I've been picking it so can't do anything about it. Sad, because I know this many picks is going to tank the win percentage either way.
Detroit -3 would qualify for System 1, but like last week I'm not counting Thursday games.
NY Jets +2.5 vs. Miami. Did Mike Mike McDaniel just save his job? After starting the season 1-6, Miami has quietly won 4 out of their last 5. The Jets have quietly covered 5 in a row. I have a feeling about the Jets, but since it's against my system I may pass.
Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Indy. Another game that goes against the system. This is a wide open division all of a sudden. Crazy Jacksonville is +145, Indy +140, and Houston +115 to win this division. Can Indy lose the division after that 7-1 start? Can Houston win it after that 3-5 start?
Indy has a tough schedule coming up. I changed my mind. I actually like Indy here now. I think they're going to be the ones fighting for the division with Houston at the end.
Looking at Indy's schedule closer, there's a plausable scenario where Indy could lose every game. This really is a must win IMO. Jacksonville should win at least 2 more to get to 10 wins.
Houston should win 3 more to get to 10 wins. And they have the tiebreaker over Indy, so they can be a game behind going into the last week and still get in.
Minnesota +1.5 vs. Washington. Great game by Mariota on Sunday night. But if they trend continues, he's going to follow up the next game with a dud. Minnesota has done well at times when they've had a chance to exploit bad defenses this season. JJ has done it twice, but I'm pretty sick of betting the Vikings. This is only under consideration if Mariota and JJ start. Otherwise no play. Daniels has a chance to play this weekend, and it looks like JJ is in after sitting out last game due to a concussion.
Minnesota also clinched the under on their season win total last week.
Daniels is in. JJ is in. Still thinking about it.
Atlanta +7 vs. Seattle. Seattle came into the Rams game on a 10 game road winning streak (and 10-0 ATS). They lost that game, but covered. Then they won, but lost ATS at Tennessee the week after. So both the 10 game road and ATS winning streaks are over now. Do they start it right back up again, or does it continue reversion?
Sam Darnold hasn't looked great the last 3 weeks. 2 TDs and 4 INTs over that span. Granted he's done enough for what he's been asked. After the crappy performance last week against the Jets, I think Atlanta's defense can step up this week.
Cincy +5.5 at Buffalo. Looking closely at this one. I still think Baltimore wins the division, but the line seems low with the Ravens as a 6 pt favorite tomorrow and likely winner to take a game and a tiebreaker from the Steelers. They are likely still pricing in the small possibility of Cincy winning the division.
Buffalo is still in a fight with New England for the division. If Buffalo beats New England on the next head to head, and New England loses at the Ravens next week, it could get interesting.
Green Bay -6.5 vs. Bears. Is the fatigue over with fading the bears yet? Maybe, but Vegas is really low on a Bears team with 9 wins right now.
LA Chargers +2 vs. Philly. This play would go against the system, but for some reason I feel like Phily is running away with this division a little too easily. Dallas has an easy schedule coming up. They could win out. Philly Would need to win this game and 2 more to lock up the division, and I don't see it coming easily.
System 1 (18-4-2):
Minnesota +2.5 - W
Miami -2.5 - W
Tampa Bay -8.5 - L
Indy -1.5 - L
LA Rams -8.5 - W
KC -3.5 - L
Philly -2.5 - L
System 2 (5-8):
Atlanta +7 (This actually qualifies more for system 2 than system 1) - L