Tweet
First of all, I never liked Philip Rivers. Now, I really don't like Philip Rivers. Friday/Saturday line movement cost me a bundle on that game. 10-0 lead with +5.5 wasn't enough with that bum.
Second of all, when you call for Baltimore to win the division all season since like week 6, and the path is clearly in front of you with only 2 games left, don't chicken out because the odds look too juicy. That was a very nice +150 and +160 ML payout with Baltimore and Cleveland that I passed on. Only took Cleveland plus the points. Baltimore to win the division future was +900 going into Saturday. It's -192 now.
Last Week
Plays: 4-0-1. Lost on my ticket because of late line movement.
System 1: 3-3-1. Lost it's fire, and I'm not going to give it the benefit of the doubt much anymore.
Somehow, I tend to do decently in the meaningless last week of the season, but it requires much more thought than usual. The best teams are so well coached that even with backups and nothing to play for they can pull out the wins. Other good teams completely lay down against whoever they're playing (see KC against Denver last year).
Saturday:
Carolina +2.5 at Tampa Bay. I could see Tampa missing the playoffs after that hot start. Will need to give it more thought though. Carolina plays well every other game, but an 8-9 team making the playoffs this season sounds about right. I think Carolina is really just happy with Bryce Young taking another step this season and knowing they don't have to draft another QB already.
This is tough. I've seen it both ways. Jacksonville pulled something similar against Tenn a couple of years ago, but Jacksonville came in HOT that game. Carolina has been hot and cold. So much that I didn't even realize they were still in the playoff hunt until recent weeks.
San Fran +1 vs. Seattle. Should we be surprised to see Seattle favored on the road here against a team they've already lost to once at home? I'm moving away from the revenge angle unless it's the third time in the same season. Did SNF give the public more or less confidence in San Fran since they put up 42 points and won in the clutch. Or is the public less confident because San Fran gave up 38 points in a game that had zero defense?
Notes:
KC -5.5 at LV Raiders. Looking at taking a lot of money lines this week and will take it here rather than giving points. We've seen QB needy teams mess up their draft position by winning, but the Chiefs with a third string QB on the road giving this many points is way overpriced. But I understand, nobody is going to take the Raiders without at least a FG and the hook and even then you're trying to thread a needle.
As a second note, it really would be a game of chess vs checkers if the Chiefs actually threw this game and messed up a division rival. That would force the Raiders to trade up to get Mendoza or miss out and have to do another year with Geno. Do the Raiders "just win baby" in the spirit of Al Davis?
Out of curiosity I'm going to look up the Raiders last game before the Jamarcus Russell draft pick. Answer: They played the 10-6 NY Jets, and they lost 23-3. They lost their last 9 games in a row that season.
Couldn't pull the trigger on KC. It's probably a gimme, but with the line movement and the poorly run organization, the Raiders could mess around and win the game. In a lost season, KC has nothing to gain by messing up their draft position either.
Dallas -5 at NY Giants. The Giants already have their QB, so the fact that they're locked into the #2 draft pick at this point doesn't cement them losing. However, Dallas' coach is still prideful and trying to put up a good showing to end his first season. Dallas was -5.5 at home earlier this season and didn't cover. Now they're facing arguably a better QB on the road, and giving the same 5. Likely taking the money line at this point, but considering laying the points.
No play on Dallas. Could be a sharp trap, but the line is down to an even 3 now, not even the hook. Can't play Giants in this spot though.
Detroit +3.5 at Chicago. I don't expect Detroit to pack it in after being eliminated last week. That was just such an ugly loss that I think the team wants to make amends for it and go into the offseason on a positive note. If anything, I see them right there and going for 2 and the win late.
Line is up to 3.5 now, but I still feel Detroit wins outright. As I said, I think Detroit wants to put together a good performance to end the season, and we saw on Saturday what that high scoring Monday affair did to San Fran.
Minnesota -6.5 vs. Green Bay. Just when I hop off the JJ Mccarthy train for good, Minnesota goes and wins 4 in a row. Line seems a tad bit high when Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup in Green Bay. I kinda like a both side teaser on this with Minn ML and GB plus any points. I really think you could hit both sides with Minn -0.5 and Green Bay +12.5.
Line is up to -10.5 which is ridiculous considering how well Malik Willis played last week, and how mediocre at best JJ Mccarthy is. I paid for the ML on this one.
Tenn +6.5 FIRST HALF at Jacksonville. I may strike this altogether as Tenn is on my no play list. But the Jags need this game, and there usually is some kind of scare in this type of game before they ultimately win. The first half line isn't out yet so I'm just guesstimating. The line at +7.5 might be enough for me to bite.
I'm going to do ahead and take the 13.5 full game here. Just have a feeling this will be close.
Indy +10 at Houston. Maybe, just maybe, I give the Colts a chance to make it right for me. They've screwed me badly 3 times this season, but their backups tend to surprise sometimes. Their backup played one down last week and threw a pick. Nice stat line.
New Orleans +3 at Atlanta. New Orleans has quietly won 4 games in a row, but Atlanta is fresh off a primetime win against the Rams and won 3 in a row themselves.
Switching the play on this one. I like Altanta -3.5 giving the hook to keep Baker out of the playoffs after that fast start.
Ravens -3.5 (ML) at Pittsburgh. I'm still a bit skeptical about this one. When I saw Ravens +900 to win the division with only two +3s needing to win outright, it did seem a bit juicy. I would not lay the points here. It would be a ML only play if it were on the Ravens.
This is also another game I would toy with teasing both sides. Pittsburgh +9.5 / 10.5 with Ravens ML sounds kinda good.
Probably going to kick myself for this one, but I took Pittsburgh and bought points. I think it will be a low scoring game, and points will be at a premium.
I think that's all the games I would have an opinion on.
Washington +7.5 at Philly. Not sure if they even have anything to play for anymore. If not, this line is way too high and I'd lean Philly to finish Washington's disastrous season.
Line is down to 4.5 here. I don't think Josh Johnson can do it again. Like Philly to win the game.
Jets +7 at Buffalo. The Jets have shown zero the last 2 couple of weeks to even give me a reason to lay my hard earned money on them. Currently picking 3rd in the draft, but this is a team that would do something dumb and mess that up. Buffalos defense has been terrible for several weeks, and they won't have Josh Allen to claw his way back this time.
Miami +11 at New England. That's a big line as New England is still in play for the 1 seed. If Tua was playing, I'd be more inclined to give them a shot, but fresh off a win, and knowing New England can make it ugly very fast I just can't make a play here. Miami had them in the first meeting earlier this season.
System 1 (31-22-4):
Dallas -3
Tenn +13.5
Indy +10.5
Green Bay +10.5
Raiders +4.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
System 2 (6-13):
Cleveland +7.5
Miami +11
Second of all, when you call for Baltimore to win the division all season since like week 6, and the path is clearly in front of you with only 2 games left, don't chicken out because the odds look too juicy. That was a very nice +150 and +160 ML payout with Baltimore and Cleveland that I passed on. Only took Cleveland plus the points. Baltimore to win the division future was +900 going into Saturday. It's -192 now.
Last Week
Plays: 4-0-1. Lost on my ticket because of late line movement.
System 1: 3-3-1. Lost it's fire, and I'm not going to give it the benefit of the doubt much anymore.
Somehow, I tend to do decently in the meaningless last week of the season, but it requires much more thought than usual. The best teams are so well coached that even with backups and nothing to play for they can pull out the wins. Other good teams completely lay down against whoever they're playing (see KC against Denver last year).
Saturday:
Carolina +2.5 at Tampa Bay. I could see Tampa missing the playoffs after that hot start. Will need to give it more thought though. Carolina plays well every other game, but an 8-9 team making the playoffs this season sounds about right. I think Carolina is really just happy with Bryce Young taking another step this season and knowing they don't have to draft another QB already.
This is tough. I've seen it both ways. Jacksonville pulled something similar against Tenn a couple of years ago, but Jacksonville came in HOT that game. Carolina has been hot and cold. So much that I didn't even realize they were still in the playoff hunt until recent weeks.
San Fran +1 vs. Seattle. Should we be surprised to see Seattle favored on the road here against a team they've already lost to once at home? I'm moving away from the revenge angle unless it's the third time in the same season. Did SNF give the public more or less confidence in San Fran since they put up 42 points and won in the clutch. Or is the public less confident because San Fran gave up 38 points in a game that had zero defense?
Notes:
KC -5.5 at LV Raiders. Looking at taking a lot of money lines this week and will take it here rather than giving points. We've seen QB needy teams mess up their draft position by winning, but the Chiefs with a third string QB on the road giving this many points is way overpriced. But I understand, nobody is going to take the Raiders without at least a FG and the hook and even then you're trying to thread a needle.
As a second note, it really would be a game of chess vs checkers if the Chiefs actually threw this game and messed up a division rival. That would force the Raiders to trade up to get Mendoza or miss out and have to do another year with Geno. Do the Raiders "just win baby" in the spirit of Al Davis?
Out of curiosity I'm going to look up the Raiders last game before the Jamarcus Russell draft pick. Answer: They played the 10-6 NY Jets, and they lost 23-3. They lost their last 9 games in a row that season.
Couldn't pull the trigger on KC. It's probably a gimme, but with the line movement and the poorly run organization, the Raiders could mess around and win the game. In a lost season, KC has nothing to gain by messing up their draft position either.
Dallas -5 at NY Giants. The Giants already have their QB, so the fact that they're locked into the #2 draft pick at this point doesn't cement them losing. However, Dallas' coach is still prideful and trying to put up a good showing to end his first season. Dallas was -5.5 at home earlier this season and didn't cover. Now they're facing arguably a better QB on the road, and giving the same 5. Likely taking the money line at this point, but considering laying the points.
No play on Dallas. Could be a sharp trap, but the line is down to an even 3 now, not even the hook. Can't play Giants in this spot though.
Detroit +3.5 at Chicago. I don't expect Detroit to pack it in after being eliminated last week. That was just such an ugly loss that I think the team wants to make amends for it and go into the offseason on a positive note. If anything, I see them right there and going for 2 and the win late.
Line is up to 3.5 now, but I still feel Detroit wins outright. As I said, I think Detroit wants to put together a good performance to end the season, and we saw on Saturday what that high scoring Monday affair did to San Fran.
Minnesota -6.5 vs. Green Bay. Just when I hop off the JJ Mccarthy train for good, Minnesota goes and wins 4 in a row. Line seems a tad bit high when Malik Willis has shown to be a very capable backup in Green Bay. I kinda like a both side teaser on this with Minn ML and GB plus any points. I really think you could hit both sides with Minn -0.5 and Green Bay +12.5.
Line is up to -10.5 which is ridiculous considering how well Malik Willis played last week, and how mediocre at best JJ Mccarthy is. I paid for the ML on this one.
Tenn +6.5 FIRST HALF at Jacksonville. I may strike this altogether as Tenn is on my no play list. But the Jags need this game, and there usually is some kind of scare in this type of game before they ultimately win. The first half line isn't out yet so I'm just guesstimating. The line at +7.5 might be enough for me to bite.
I'm going to do ahead and take the 13.5 full game here. Just have a feeling this will be close.
Indy +10 at Houston. Maybe, just maybe, I give the Colts a chance to make it right for me. They've screwed me badly 3 times this season, but their backups tend to surprise sometimes. Their backup played one down last week and threw a pick. Nice stat line.
New Orleans +3 at Atlanta. New Orleans has quietly won 4 games in a row, but Atlanta is fresh off a primetime win against the Rams and won 3 in a row themselves.
Switching the play on this one. I like Altanta -3.5 giving the hook to keep Baker out of the playoffs after that fast start.
Ravens -3.5 (ML) at Pittsburgh. I'm still a bit skeptical about this one. When I saw Ravens +900 to win the division with only two +3s needing to win outright, it did seem a bit juicy. I would not lay the points here. It would be a ML only play if it were on the Ravens.
This is also another game I would toy with teasing both sides. Pittsburgh +9.5 / 10.5 with Ravens ML sounds kinda good.
Probably going to kick myself for this one, but I took Pittsburgh and bought points. I think it will be a low scoring game, and points will be at a premium.
I think that's all the games I would have an opinion on.
Washington +7.5 at Philly. Not sure if they even have anything to play for anymore. If not, this line is way too high and I'd lean Philly to finish Washington's disastrous season.
Line is down to 4.5 here. I don't think Josh Johnson can do it again. Like Philly to win the game.
Jets +7 at Buffalo. The Jets have shown zero the last 2 couple of weeks to even give me a reason to lay my hard earned money on them. Currently picking 3rd in the draft, but this is a team that would do something dumb and mess that up. Buffalos defense has been terrible for several weeks, and they won't have Josh Allen to claw his way back this time.
Miami +11 at New England. That's a big line as New England is still in play for the 1 seed. If Tua was playing, I'd be more inclined to give them a shot, but fresh off a win, and knowing New England can make it ugly very fast I just can't make a play here. Miami had them in the first meeting earlier this season.
System 1 (31-22-4):
Dallas -3
Tenn +13.5
Indy +10.5
Green Bay +10.5
Raiders +4.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
System 2 (6-13):
Cleveland +7.5
Miami +11