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Starting a thread that I'll modify as we get closer to week 1.
Wanted to throw in a couple of futures. If you check my post last season, I said I was big on New England. Didn't expect them to make the super bowl, but I thought they would surprise.
This season my two primary futures are around Kliff Kingsbury and Mike McDaniel, who I believe are two of the more underrated offensive minds in this league.
Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 wins (-115). Dan Quinn is going to regret having differences with Kliff, because he's a very mediocre old fashioned coach, and those are dying these days. I think Washington will at least have some initial growing pains with David Blough as their new OC. They'll be in the hole early.
Freak accidents can happen to any QB. Tom Brady tore his ACL. But Daniels with and his slight frame, and his constant injuries are probably going to be regular in his career.
LA Chargers Over 10.5 wins (+130). Jim Harbaugh is a solid coach, but the addition of Mike Mcdaniel should make them one of the teams to beat this season. I'll pass on -140 at 9.5 and go with the 10.5 for extra value. I'm showing about 5 losses, plus 2 each for a split between KC and Denver. So they'll have to overperform by 1 game to hit this.
LA Chargers AFC West Winner (+190). Odds are pretty even between the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos. With Mahomes coming off injury and Kelce getting married and getting older, I think this team's window is fading until they can get some real weapons on offense. I don't see Denver repeating. They won a ton of close games last season, and Bo Nix is really a system QB.
Week 1: (Updated)
Plays:
Baltimore / Indy Over 47.5. I think Baltimore comes out firing this season as they usually can until Lamar gets hurt. Was actually surprised to see Daniel Jones back already, but here he is. Any team with a pulse has been able to score on Baltimore in recent years.
Tenn ML -120 vs. NY Jets. Tennessee is usually on my no play list, but it's a new season and it's against the Jets. I've never respected Geno ever since he dropped out of the first round of the draft, then got so mad that he fired his agent and almost didn't come back for Day 2 but changed his mind. We'll see if after 15 years in the league that he's actually a capable QB, or if playing for Seattle made him look better than he is. I think he's a crappy QB, and always will be.
Philly ML (-218) vs. Washington. Losing AJ Brown will hurt, but losing Kingsbury will hurt Washington more. I don't like that Washington's dysfunction is so known on a national level now though.
New Orleans +7 at Detroit. No commentary on this one. Just something I'm seeing that's sticking out.
Leans:
Carolina +2.5 vs. Chicago. This is really a prove it season for Bryce Young. He's probably a better QB than we gave him credit for considering he's winning with Carolina and and Sam Darnold and Baker couldn't. Likely to be the #1 public pick this week.
Minnesota -1.5 vs Green Bay. Was wrong about JJ Mccarthy last season. Even Kevin O'Connell couldn't make him a good quarterback. Will see what he can do with Kyler Murray this season. The new Call of Duty doesn't come out until October 23rd, so he could have a good first 5-6 weeks.
KC -2.5 vs. Denver. I'll take Mahomes not to lose 3 in a row to Denver.
No Play:
Pittsburgh Team Total Under 22.5. This is Aaron Rodgers last season, and the results aren't usually good for those. I tried to fade Tom Brady in his last season, and he lucked out with good defensive performances the first couple of weeks. Will take under Team Total for Pitt in case Rodgers lucks out that way as well.
Edit: No Play for now. This is a bit different than usual with a legend QB since he's so outspoken and kinda playing a villain role. This is mainly a no-play because Tua is out, Penix is out, and Cooper Rush is in. May change my mind back.
Houston +1.5 vs Buffalo. I know week 1 lines sometimes are not inflated because teams are getting the benefit of the doubt, but I'll take a shot here. Don't see how your casual fan can take Houston in this spot with the down season CJ Stroud had last year.
This is the weakest of my plays and I may pull it by tomorrow. Factoring in home field, the fact that Houston is getting points at home, considering they were a playoff team last year, is actually kinda fair.
Edit: Passing on this game. Houston won 12 games last year! Getting points at home, ridiculous. PASS.
SGP:
System Plays:
The system doesn't start until week 2
Wanted to throw in a couple of futures. If you check my post last season, I said I was big on New England. Didn't expect them to make the super bowl, but I thought they would surprise.
This season my two primary futures are around Kliff Kingsbury and Mike McDaniel, who I believe are two of the more underrated offensive minds in this league.
Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 wins (-115). Dan Quinn is going to regret having differences with Kliff, because he's a very mediocre old fashioned coach, and those are dying these days. I think Washington will at least have some initial growing pains with David Blough as their new OC. They'll be in the hole early.
Freak accidents can happen to any QB. Tom Brady tore his ACL. But Daniels with and his slight frame, and his constant injuries are probably going to be regular in his career.
LA Chargers Over 10.5 wins (+130). Jim Harbaugh is a solid coach, but the addition of Mike Mcdaniel should make them one of the teams to beat this season. I'll pass on -140 at 9.5 and go with the 10.5 for extra value. I'm showing about 5 losses, plus 2 each for a split between KC and Denver. So they'll have to overperform by 1 game to hit this.
LA Chargers AFC West Winner (+190). Odds are pretty even between the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos. With Mahomes coming off injury and Kelce getting married and getting older, I think this team's window is fading until they can get some real weapons on offense. I don't see Denver repeating. They won a ton of close games last season, and Bo Nix is really a system QB.
Week 1: (Updated)
Plays:
Baltimore / Indy Over 47.5. I think Baltimore comes out firing this season as they usually can until Lamar gets hurt. Was actually surprised to see Daniel Jones back already, but here he is. Any team with a pulse has been able to score on Baltimore in recent years.
Tenn ML -120 vs. NY Jets. Tennessee is usually on my no play list, but it's a new season and it's against the Jets. I've never respected Geno ever since he dropped out of the first round of the draft, then got so mad that he fired his agent and almost didn't come back for Day 2 but changed his mind. We'll see if after 15 years in the league that he's actually a capable QB, or if playing for Seattle made him look better than he is. I think he's a crappy QB, and always will be.
Philly ML (-218) vs. Washington. Losing AJ Brown will hurt, but losing Kingsbury will hurt Washington more. I don't like that Washington's dysfunction is so known on a national level now though.
New Orleans +7 at Detroit. No commentary on this one. Just something I'm seeing that's sticking out.
Leans:
Carolina +2.5 vs. Chicago. This is really a prove it season for Bryce Young. He's probably a better QB than we gave him credit for considering he's winning with Carolina and and Sam Darnold and Baker couldn't. Likely to be the #1 public pick this week.
Minnesota -1.5 vs Green Bay. Was wrong about JJ Mccarthy last season. Even Kevin O'Connell couldn't make him a good quarterback. Will see what he can do with Kyler Murray this season. The new Call of Duty doesn't come out until October 23rd, so he could have a good first 5-6 weeks.
KC -2.5 vs. Denver. I'll take Mahomes not to lose 3 in a row to Denver.
No Play:
Pittsburgh Team Total Under 22.5. This is Aaron Rodgers last season, and the results aren't usually good for those. I tried to fade Tom Brady in his last season, and he lucked out with good defensive performances the first couple of weeks. Will take under Team Total for Pitt in case Rodgers lucks out that way as well.
Edit: No Play for now. This is a bit different than usual with a legend QB since he's so outspoken and kinda playing a villain role. This is mainly a no-play because Tua is out, Penix is out, and Cooper Rush is in. May change my mind back.
Houston +1.5 vs Buffalo. I know week 1 lines sometimes are not inflated because teams are getting the benefit of the doubt, but I'll take a shot here. Don't see how your casual fan can take Houston in this spot with the down season CJ Stroud had last year.
This is the weakest of my plays and I may pull it by tomorrow. Factoring in home field, the fact that Houston is getting points at home, considering they were a playoff team last year, is actually kinda fair.
Edit: Passing on this game. Houston won 12 games last year! Getting points at home, ridiculous. PASS.
SGP:
- Herbert over 1.5 TD passes X, Over 195.5 yards. X
- Mcconkey over 50 yards ✓
- Garrett Wilson over 50 yards ✓
- Achane TD X
- DK Metcalf TD X
- Ceedee Lamb TD ✓
System Plays:
The system doesn't start until week 2