As usual, I'm going to get started early this week.
2-1 plays, 1-0 juiced money lines. 2-1 leans. Hit my big play with the over on Baltimore, but may have been way wrong about the Chargers this season. It could also be a huge disappointment of a season if Mcconkey misses time, because Keenan Allen isn't there to pick up the slack anymore.
Would have been a good week for me if I had updated for prime times. I would have taken San Fran on Thursday and moved KC up to a play cuz I played it. But no cheating.
Starting with my system plays this week for notes. System 1 was on a tear last season when I started tracking week 5, but leveled out towards the end. Impossible to keep up with the pace that it started with (18-4-2 I believe). Honestly, I'm not positive about the details of System 2, but it was below .500 anyways.
Thursday:
Detroit +5.5 at Buffalo. I usually hesitate taking the Lions because they have such a good offense, yet a terrible defense at the same time. Hearing a lot about it being Buffalo's first game in a new stadium. Buffalo's defense can be pretty bad as well though, and they just allowed 30 to a Texans team that's not exactly known for scoring a lot of points. Line seems pretty fair as Vegas is really saying they're Buffalo is about 1-2 pts better than Detroit, and I would agree.
Bottom line is Detroit usually hangs in there against anyone, and I don't think that changes whether it's Josh Allen or anyone else on the other side. This is not a division game, and in the grand scheme of things, it's probably one of the least important games on both their schedules as it's a non-division, non-conference game. Hopefully in a carefree shootout game 4.5 is enough, because I'll take it.
Plays:
Dallas -4.5 vs. Washington. Will continue the Washington fade for now. Ultimately, I think Dallas' offense will be too much for Washington and they will pull away.
Steelers / Patriots UNDER 41.5. Pulled my Pittsburgh under 22.5 team total last week. Should have kept it as the Steelers only won because of the effort from their defense. With Rodger's arm not as explosive as before, and New England missing AJ Brown, I think points will be hard to come by here. Let's see if the super bowl hangover continues. This is basically back to 2024 Patriots offense without Stefan Diggs and AJ Brown that scored around 15-20 points a game.
These teams need to learn to deal with these primadonna WRs because Philly was a slightly above average team without AJ Brown, but they made the Super Bowl twice with him. You really need one of those guys like an AJ Brown or Diggs if you want to put your offense over the top.
Leans:
Pittsburgh +5.5 at New England. Since I think it will be hard to score points this week for New England, I think it will be hard for them to cover 5.5 as well. Just hope Pittsburgh can score at least 10.
LA Chargers -6.5 vs LV Raiders. Giving the Chargers one more chance before I hit the panic button on the season. The Chargers offense was doing fine until they lost Mcconkey. They moved the ball on most drives. They even started to stop the run in the second half. Mcdaniel should be able to scheme up an alternate gameplan if Mcconkey can't play this week.
Mcconkey looks like hes' out. Brock Bowers is out. Probably no play this one.
No Play:
Arizona +3.5 vs. Seattle. Drew Lock just has a thing with primetime I guess. Arizona showed flashes last year. The Jacoby Brissett led offense has been competent. Drew Lock will need to lean hard on his defense to keep the scoring in the teens for this one.
After reflecting a bit on this game, this is a no play. Seattle giving 3.5 and the hook on the road with a QB that can barely score at times, against a team with a big win does seem a bit high.
NY Giants +7 at LA Rams. Will go with the Giants to continue as a surprise team against one of the most hyped teams in years in the Rams, fresh off Matt Stafford's MVP, and the addition of Myles Garrett and the return of Aaron Donald. Miles Garrett is out though, just went on IR.
Not liking that the line has moved to 7.5 in some places and the Giants have become a public underdog. Re-assessing this.
No Play. Public dog coming off an impressive primetime win.
System 1:
Green Bay -3.5 L
Houston -2.5 L
LA Chargers -6.5 L
Miami +13.5 L
Seattle -4.5 W
Dallas -3.5 W
LA Rams -7.5 W
Detroit +4.5 would also qualify for System 1, but I don't track Thursday games.
Yuck, very chalky week. But I'm going to track whole season, and try to track week 5 on separately maybe.
System 2:
Denver -2.5 W
Indy +6.5 W
Miami +13.5 L
2-1 plays, 1-0 juiced money lines. 2-1 leans. Hit my big play with the over on Baltimore, but may have been way wrong about the Chargers this season. It could also be a huge disappointment of a season if Mcconkey misses time, because Keenan Allen isn't there to pick up the slack anymore.
Would have been a good week for me if I had updated for prime times. I would have taken San Fran on Thursday and moved KC up to a play cuz I played it. But no cheating.
Starting with my system plays this week for notes. System 1 was on a tear last season when I started tracking week 5, but leveled out towards the end. Impossible to keep up with the pace that it started with (18-4-2 I believe). Honestly, I'm not positive about the details of System 2, but it was below .500 anyways.
Thursday:
Detroit +5.5 at Buffalo. I usually hesitate taking the Lions because they have such a good offense, yet a terrible defense at the same time. Hearing a lot about it being Buffalo's first game in a new stadium. Buffalo's defense can be pretty bad as well though, and they just allowed 30 to a Texans team that's not exactly known for scoring a lot of points. Line seems pretty fair as Vegas is really saying they're Buffalo is about 1-2 pts better than Detroit, and I would agree.
Bottom line is Detroit usually hangs in there against anyone, and I don't think that changes whether it's Josh Allen or anyone else on the other side. This is not a division game, and in the grand scheme of things, it's probably one of the least important games on both their schedules as it's a non-division, non-conference game. Hopefully in a carefree shootout game 4.5 is enough, because I'll take it.
Plays:
Dallas -4.5 vs. Washington. Will continue the Washington fade for now. Ultimately, I think Dallas' offense will be too much for Washington and they will pull away.
Steelers / Patriots UNDER 41.5. Pulled my Pittsburgh under 22.5 team total last week. Should have kept it as the Steelers only won because of the effort from their defense. With Rodger's arm not as explosive as before, and New England missing AJ Brown, I think points will be hard to come by here. Let's see if the super bowl hangover continues. This is basically back to 2024 Patriots offense without Stefan Diggs and AJ Brown that scored around 15-20 points a game.
These teams need to learn to deal with these primadonna WRs because Philly was a slightly above average team without AJ Brown, but they made the Super Bowl twice with him. You really need one of those guys like an AJ Brown or Diggs if you want to put your offense over the top.
Leans:
Pittsburgh +5.5 at New England. Since I think it will be hard to score points this week for New England, I think it will be hard for them to cover 5.5 as well. Just hope Pittsburgh can score at least 10.
LA Chargers -6.5 vs LV Raiders. Giving the Chargers one more chance before I hit the panic button on the season. The Chargers offense was doing fine until they lost Mcconkey. They moved the ball on most drives. They even started to stop the run in the second half. Mcdaniel should be able to scheme up an alternate gameplan if Mcconkey can't play this week.
Mcconkey looks like hes' out. Brock Bowers is out. Probably no play this one.
No Play:
Arizona +3.5 vs. Seattle. Drew Lock just has a thing with primetime I guess. Arizona showed flashes last year. The Jacoby Brissett led offense has been competent. Drew Lock will need to lean hard on his defense to keep the scoring in the teens for this one.
After reflecting a bit on this game, this is a no play. Seattle giving 3.5 and the hook on the road with a QB that can barely score at times, against a team with a big win does seem a bit high.
NY Giants +7 at LA Rams. Will go with the Giants to continue as a surprise team against one of the most hyped teams in years in the Rams, fresh off Matt Stafford's MVP, and the addition of Myles Garrett and the return of Aaron Donald. Miles Garrett is out though, just went on IR.
Not liking that the line has moved to 7.5 in some places and the Giants have become a public underdog. Re-assessing this.
No Play. Public dog coming off an impressive primetime win.
System 1:
Green Bay -3.5 L
Houston -2.5 L
LA Chargers -6.5 L
Miami +13.5 L
Seattle -4.5 W
Dallas -3.5 W
LA Rams -7.5 W
Detroit +4.5 would also qualify for System 1, but I don't track Thursday games.
Yuck, very chalky week. But I'm going to track whole season, and try to track week 5 on separately maybe.
System 2:
Denver -2.5 W
Indy +6.5 W
Miami +13.5 L
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