Last week was bleh. Probably not gonna do a ton of teaser type parlays again. I got like 5 out 7, but all 5 would have covered the line without the tease. The other 2 an extra 8 pts was no help.
Last week 2-0 plays. 0-2 leans. 4-1 plays, 2-3 leans on the season.
I had to fix the system plays after the fact cuz I messed up system 2. System 1 went 3-4, System 2 went 2-1. I'm restarting the system tracking in week 5 to see if it does any better after a month of data.
Plays:
Houston -1.5 at Indy. Texans are going to be without Nico Collins again. Colts lost, but took the Chiefs to the brink on primetime. Colts were the surprise team last year, but that was last year. Texans are still similar odds to the Jags of winning the division. And they're already a game behind.
New Orleans -3.5 vs LV Raiders. Both off huge SU wins as 7 point underdogs. The Saints giving 3 and the hook seems a bit high as the Raiders are 2-0. But those 2 wins are against Miami and against a Chargers team that's a mess.
Edit: Wow, I had no idea the Saints have covered 8 games in a row. Geeeez.
Cleveland +2.5 vs Carolina. Don't really like Cleveland this week, but there's a trend here that keeps sticking out. Also the top consensus play this week. The line is down to 1.5 in some places. Carolina should be giving 3 and the hook at minimum if Vegas truly wanted money on both sides.
Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Cincy. Steelers have not looked good this season. But is that worthy of Cincy giving 3 and the hook on the road in a division game? Tempted to take the points, but feel like it should be more like +2.5 or less than 3.5.
Washington +7.5 vs. Seattle. This isn't even a lean. I'm thinking about it. Mariota is in, and he has good games and bad games. We've seen a lot of him the past year, and we know he's capable. Last week Seattle was -3.5 with Lock at Arizona. This week they're giving 7 and the hook against arguably a better team in Washington. Is Sam Darnold returning worth an extra 4 points, pushing it past the key 7 number? That seems high.
Leans:
Detroit -6.5 vs. NY Jets. I feel like every -5.5 or -6.5 has lost this season. Jets should have won last week. Detroit has a million players missing and got smoked in primetime. I think the Jets can definitely put up points here, but Detroit should be able to outscore them.
Jacksonville -3 vs. New England. AJ Brown is on IR and looks to miss 6-8 weeks. New England hasn't looked good at all this season. Line is only 3 though. Is New England inflated because they made the super bowl?
System 1 (3-4):
Houston -1.5 L
Pittsburgh +3.5 W
Detroit -6.5 W
Jacksonville -3 W
LA Chargers +7.5 L
System 2 (2-1):
Washington +7.5 W
Arizona +8.5 W
Last week 2-0 plays. 0-2 leans. 4-1 plays, 2-3 leans on the season.
I had to fix the system plays after the fact cuz I messed up system 2. System 1 went 3-4, System 2 went 2-1. I'm restarting the system tracking in week 5 to see if it does any better after a month of data.
Plays:
Houston -1.5 at Indy. Texans are going to be without Nico Collins again. Colts lost, but took the Chiefs to the brink on primetime. Colts were the surprise team last year, but that was last year. Texans are still similar odds to the Jags of winning the division. And they're already a game behind.
New Orleans -3.5 vs LV Raiders. Both off huge SU wins as 7 point underdogs. The Saints giving 3 and the hook seems a bit high as the Raiders are 2-0. But those 2 wins are against Miami and against a Chargers team that's a mess.
Edit: Wow, I had no idea the Saints have covered 8 games in a row. Geeeez.
Cleveland +2.5 vs Carolina. Don't really like Cleveland this week, but there's a trend here that keeps sticking out. Also the top consensus play this week. The line is down to 1.5 in some places. Carolina should be giving 3 and the hook at minimum if Vegas truly wanted money on both sides.
Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Cincy. Steelers have not looked good this season. But is that worthy of Cincy giving 3 and the hook on the road in a division game? Tempted to take the points, but feel like it should be more like +2.5 or less than 3.5.
Washington +7.5 vs. Seattle. This isn't even a lean. I'm thinking about it. Mariota is in, and he has good games and bad games. We've seen a lot of him the past year, and we know he's capable. Last week Seattle was -3.5 with Lock at Arizona. This week they're giving 7 and the hook against arguably a better team in Washington. Is Sam Darnold returning worth an extra 4 points, pushing it past the key 7 number? That seems high.
Leans:
Detroit -6.5 vs. NY Jets. I feel like every -5.5 or -6.5 has lost this season. Jets should have won last week. Detroit has a million players missing and got smoked in primetime. I think the Jets can definitely put up points here, but Detroit should be able to outscore them.
Jacksonville -3 vs. New England. AJ Brown is on IR and looks to miss 6-8 weeks. New England hasn't looked good at all this season. Line is only 3 though. Is New England inflated because they made the super bowl?
System 1 (3-4):
Houston -1.5 L
Pittsburgh +3.5 W
Detroit -6.5 W
Jacksonville -3 W
LA Chargers +7.5 L
System 2 (2-1):
Washington +7.5 W
Arizona +8.5 W
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