Figures I'd lose my top 2 last week, then win the last 5. Didn't help me much.
Last Week: 3-2 plays, 2-0 Leans. Season: 7-3 plays. 4-3 Leans.
System 2 is doing pretty well this year. See if it keeps it up.
Plays:
Indy -4.5 vs. Washington. Neutral field and this line is looking pretty high. Full disclosure, I circled this game before week 1 with the intention of taking Indy +1.5 at the time. The injury to Jayden Daniels moved the line 6 points despite Washington winning against Seattle last week. Mariota is good in the first game, but we've seen a lot of him. Sometimes the defense really lets Washington down, and I think Daniel Jones can make enough plays and lean on Jonathan Taylor to cover this line.
LA Rams -3.5 at Philly. I still have nightmares of the game from last year. Don't even want to talk about it. Rams get payback here.
Carolina +3.5 vs Detroit. Feels a bit high to be giving this many on the road, but there's a trend that doesn't lie and I'll ride it til it ends. Detroit's defense lets everyone in the game.
Atlanta +1.5 at New Orleans. The Saints are a small favorite which is shocking considering how well they've played this season. Goes against the system, but I like Atlanta in this game.
Leans:
The -2.5 games I'm trying to figure out: First lean is all 3 favorites, but I probably can't do that. Historically -2.5 home teams have not done well.
Cincy -2.5 vs. Jacksonville. Thinking Cincy off the loss to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville off the New England thumping and kneeling with 8 mins left in the game.
Houston -2.5 vs Dallas. Initial thought was Houston here with Nico Collins returning. Houston's offense is so bad, but Dallas lets anyone score. They're almost as bad as Detroit. I'm not a fan of the "must win" angle, but if Houston were to go 0-4, the season would essentially be over.
San Fran -2.5 vs. Denver. Seems like a short line with SF looking like the best team in the league. However, Denver is off a big emotional victory on SNF and the Niners have injuries all over.I think I'm going to change this one to Denver. Seeing high consensus on San Fran.
System 1 (6-5):
Cincy -2.5 L
New England +6.5 W
NY Jets +3.5 L
Miami +9.5 W
San Fran -2.5 W
Carolina +3.5 W
New Orleans -1.5 L
Houston -2.5 might qualify. I'll leave it for now. L
System 2 (4-1):
None.
Last Week: 3-2 plays, 2-0 Leans. Season: 7-3 plays. 4-3 Leans.
System 2 is doing pretty well this year. See if it keeps it up.
Plays:
Indy -4.5 vs. Washington. Neutral field and this line is looking pretty high. Full disclosure, I circled this game before week 1 with the intention of taking Indy +1.5 at the time. The injury to Jayden Daniels moved the line 6 points despite Washington winning against Seattle last week. Mariota is good in the first game, but we've seen a lot of him. Sometimes the defense really lets Washington down, and I think Daniel Jones can make enough plays and lean on Jonathan Taylor to cover this line.
LA Rams -3.5 at Philly. I still have nightmares of the game from last year. Don't even want to talk about it. Rams get payback here.
Carolina +3.5 vs Detroit. Feels a bit high to be giving this many on the road, but there's a trend that doesn't lie and I'll ride it til it ends. Detroit's defense lets everyone in the game.
Atlanta +1.5 at New Orleans. The Saints are a small favorite which is shocking considering how well they've played this season. Goes against the system, but I like Atlanta in this game.
Leans:
The -2.5 games I'm trying to figure out: First lean is all 3 favorites, but I probably can't do that. Historically -2.5 home teams have not done well.
Cincy -2.5 vs. Jacksonville. Thinking Cincy off the loss to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville off the New England thumping and kneeling with 8 mins left in the game.
Houston -2.5 vs Dallas. Initial thought was Houston here with Nico Collins returning. Houston's offense is so bad, but Dallas lets anyone score. They're almost as bad as Detroit. I'm not a fan of the "must win" angle, but if Houston were to go 0-4, the season would essentially be over.
San Fran -2.5 vs. Denver. Seems like a short line with SF looking like the best team in the league. However, Denver is off a big emotional victory on SNF and the Niners have injuries all over.I think I'm going to change this one to Denver. Seeing high consensus on San Fran.
System 1 (6-5):
Cincy -2.5 L
New England +6.5 W
NY Jets +3.5 L
Miami +9.5 W
San Fran -2.5 W
Carolina +3.5 W
New Orleans -1.5 L
Houston -2.5 might qualify. I'll leave it for now. L
System 2 (4-1):
None.