week 9 discussion

[Billy The Kid]

home dogs

Colts +7
Redskins +3.5
Chargers +6


Colts +7 - Indy home off of three straight road games still looking for their first win against an Atlanta team off a bye where teams have struggled some this year. ATL only averaging barely over 17 points per game on the road this year but they do get J. Jones back this week. ATL's run game should be on full display against the terrible Indy run d but still have a gut feeling the Colts are the play. May be a slight look ahead from ATL stand point with New Orleans one deck at home. If Indy can slow down the Falcons run game (a tall task, one that hopefully the home crowd will provide a boost for) I think they have a real good chance to keep this one within the number

Redskins +3.5 - Normally seems like a great spot to take the home dog/ML but the niners are 3-0 this year on the east coast. Redskins offense is horrendous and so don't know if I can justify making a play on them. And I def. won't be playing on Alex Smith on the road. The skins defense is going to have to come up with a big effort and set up some good field position imo for them to win outright. Lean under (37.5) right now as the niners will continue to ride Gore

Chargers +6 - Rivers hasn't looked very good this year and very well may be injured but I still think he is the second best quarterback the packers have faced this year behind Brees week 1. Green Bay's pass d hasn't been anything special and the Chargers have plenty of options to spread the ball around. November is always a good time to start to buy the Chargers, never mind being off a bad loss against KC on MNF where it now seems public perception is very low


other leans:


Jets +2 - This is pretty close to a must win for the Jets imo and I think they come out on top when all is said and done. Jets have gotten back to the ground/control the clock game and Sanchez has been very efficient, which doesn't bode to well for the Bills imo. Bills have also faced only 1 top 10 defense this year and lost that game. Very strong lean on the Jets right now. Maybe udog has some houghts on this one

Broncos- +7 - Last week everyone was on the Tebow bandwagon, this week people can't jump off fast enough. Seems like a solid time to play on the ponies to me. There is a new QB on the other side of the field as well, one who has been with his new team for only three weeks and is not Joe Montana despite being hyped as this replacement savior. McFadden also out for the Raiders. While Bush is more than capable of carrying the load, the offense does take a big hit without the main work horse. Broncos D has also been somewhat respectable the past few weeks against the run. Def. think this number is inflated and will prob. have a small unit on the Broncos ML as well

[Daws1089]

i think the chargers are a good play. A lot of people will only remember phil rivers' blunder on mnf and see the pack only laying 6 and think this game is an easy bet. I think this is a good situation ot back sd.

[Underdog88]

I think over could be the way to go with GB/SD. Was looking at SD tt o22.5 earlier this week.


Can't fade the Bills right now. The Jets have the better talent defensively, but overall right now I think Buffalo is the better team. More thoughts tomorrow

[akatdrake]

ATL/IND - Can the Colts stop the run?
TBB/NOR - Blount needs to have a huge day for TB to have a chance.
NYJ/BUF - UDog right about Buffalo here, they're the better team, more aggressive and getting more consistent offensive play out of QB and RB.
MIA/KC - Miami coming off short week and win with some luck. Think KC's def is built to stop Reggie Bush - fast 3-4 def that will push him outside into the LB'ers.

Read an article about books inviting action on SF and GB as the say the public will see a short line on the hot Niners vs the struggling Redskins and pound SF, and getting GB at less than a TD vs a downtrodden Chargers team... currently 86 percent on SF and line dropped from 4.5 to 4, and 77 percent on GB line stayed at 5.5

I have Rams/Cards -1/-1 and why is everyone backing the Rams here? Kolb playing inconsistently, but that's been his MO thoroughout his career... good to have Beanie back for the Cards, and maybe perception is Rams ran all over New Orleans, they can do it vs Arizona? I'm not sure here.

[akatdrake]

Ah so Kevin Kolb is not playing - John Skelton gets the start. I'll probably stay away from this game.

[Underdog88]

Do the Saints really deserve to be a 9 pt favorite right now? Everyone is using the revenge angle, but the Saints can't stop a good run game. Blount didn't even play last meeting it was Graham that ran over NO. Now TB is coming in off a bye with a loss previously. I just think that this line is inflated, how easy is it to tease NO down to-2? TB has won last two times @ NO.

[Underdog88]

ATL/IND - Can the Colts stop the run?

Can the Falcons stop the pass? I think again this is an inflated line because the Falcons are off a bye and beating Detroit. The only game where the margin of victory was more than 6 was vs the Panthers, when ATL scored 17 unanswered in the 4th. Colts 1st game home in nearly a month, wouldn't surprise me to see a tightly played game

[Underdog88]

Bills/Jets biggest concern for me is the NYJ run game. Look at the rushing numbers the Jets have put up vs the Bills the last 2 years. I believe 215+ in every one. Now that the Bills offense is better, they should be able to sustain drives and stay on the field, but I am worried about stopping the run.

[Underdog88]

I want to pull the trigger on the Bills so bad, but my concerns about the run game are keeping me from doing so. I think the Bills D could give up pts if the run game is going. Otherwise Sanchez can't work the play action as well, and he is ripe for the picking. Plax having back problems, i wonder how much it affects him. Seems to me Ryan is adamant about getting him involved. Perfect weather conditions today, and with the way Buffalo's offense has been playing, paired with holes that I think can be exposed defensively on both sides, I don't endorse anything under related.

Right now I think Jets tt o21-120/ o21.5-105 is the best wager. Bills D off a shutout, but that was the worst performance by an o-line I have seen in recent memory, don't think the Jets line does the same. IMO the Bills will have to score 24+ to win today.

[Underdog88]

I think the Patriots shellac the Giants. Patriots have problems but I don't think Eli will expose them. Bad spot for NYG after a bad home showing vs the Fins. Bradshaw out is the deciding factor for me, Jacobs is a fumbling bumbling idiot. Pats tt o30 may be the play, but then again it could just as easily be a 27-17 type win.

[Daws1089]

Colts look like a solid bet to me. Falcons on the road after the bye and off the win against DET. Not a very good road team at all in ATL. Even with all the action on ATL, line dipped under 7 now.

[Stifler's Mom]

Read an article about books inviting action on SF and GB as the say the public will see a short line on the hot Niners vs the struggling Redskins and pound SF, and getting GB at less than a TD vs a downtrodden Chargers team... currently 86 percent on SF and line dropped from 4.5 to 4, and 77 percent on GB line stayed at 5.5

I'm as anti-public and anti-square in my thinking as they come, but how does one back the Skins to basically win SU right now?

The line for the Skins is up to 5/5.5 now, and i wouldn't be shocked to see it hit 6 till game time. I watched the entire game last week vs Buffalo, and let me tell ya (as if it wasn't already common knowledge), the Skins offense SUCKS ASS. Bills had like 4 sacks all year and then got nearly double digits in that game alone. The Skins might as well have had the Golden Girls blocking. Maybe it's a sucker line on SF, but I don't think I'll be paying to find out....unless I come across a real good reason.

[hodown]

I'm as anti-public and anti-square in my thinking as they come, but how does one back the Skins to basically win SU right now?

The line for the Skins is up to 5/5.5 now, and i wouldn't be shocked to see it hit 6 till game time. I watched the entire game last week vs Buffalo, and let me tell ya (as if it wasn't already common knowledge), the Skins offense SUCKS ASS. Bills had like 4 sacks all year and then got nearly double digits in that game alone. The Skins might as well have had the Golden Girls blocking. Maybe it's a sucker line on SF, but I don't think I'll be paying to find out....unless I come across a real good reason.

Agree 100%.