***Week 11 Discussion***

[hodown]

Bored at work and I'd rather talk football. Stif brought up two games where teams in letdown spots are playing teams in comeback spots. Here's the list of all teams that may qualify:

Nyj -4.5 @ Denver
Buf +2 @ Miami
Cle +1 vs jax
Min +1.5 vs oak
Tb +14.5 @ gb
Wash +8 vs Dallas
Atl -6 vs tenn
Sd +3.5 @ chi
Kc +14.5 @ ne

Typing from my phone so sorry for the cap errors. Backing cle in any spot seems little more than a coin flip at this point. Oak working off a long week and Min working off a short week may have something to do with the line. This game appears to be coin flip as well. Not quite sure Atlanta deserves to be giving 6 and not sure how they rebound. Tb and Wash look like overreaction lines to the last few weeks. Dallas plays a couple of good home games and now they're giving 8 on the road? Wash looked like the better team the first time these two teams played, and they're defense is still competent. Hard to believe GB comes out and whoops ass again after throttling a division opponent but I guess it's possible. Fwiw Chicago is in a definite letdown spot but I'm not fading my squad right now. Rivers has been wildly inconsistent and Chicago is opportunistic right now.

[bluedevil12]

I know the Jets are in a tough spot off a short week and facing a potential emotional letdown game, but I think they are better than they showed Sunday night. I would be very surprised if the Tebow-gimmick works against a quality front seven. I will probably lay the points there.

Agree that the TB line is inflated, but they do look really bad (and the Packers look incredible). Potentially a no play for me although the points are tempting.

I like Chicago laying the points. They look great lately and the Chargers haven't done anything well recently. Forte should be able to run the ball and they should be able to pressure Rivers.

I'll back Oakland in this spot. They're still in a playoff hunt and have a lot more to play for than the Vikes. Combine that with the long week/short week and I'll take my chances.

I'll also be on Buffalo. These teams are going in different directions, but do people really believe Miami should be favored? Just two weeks ago people were saying the Bills were looking like a playoff team and Miami was going to win one game all year. Buffalo knows the wheels are coming off and they cannot afford to drop this one.

Just my two cents, looking forward to hearing everyone else's thoughts.

[COACH DITKA]

There seems to be a ton of line movement in the Broncos/Jets game. I saw the total around 42/42.5 (now down to 40 in spots) & the spread opened at about 4.5 (now up to 7 in spots). I initially liked the under & the Jets but didn't expect the sharp movement so quickly. Thoughts?

[akatdrake]

Impressions on the Vikings are terrible coming off that nationally watched blowout loss, but Oakland might be what they're needing. The Vikings OL is bad, but their defense is geared to stopping the run. Antoine Winfield out for the Vikings has an already-thin secondary reeling. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign a vet much like they have the last couple of seasons... contain Michael Bush and make Palmer throw the ball.

[Stifler's Mom]

I knew the Jets line would go way up. It's at 6.5 now, 7 at some places. I wouldn't be surprised to see the squarer books go to 7.5 tomorrow. I can't imagine the Jets losing that game unless Dirty Sanchez goes haywire and throws about 4 picks or something stupid, as I think they will load up and shut down the run, and Tebow will not be able to consistently do jack **** throwing the ball even into single coverages, considering the quality of the Jets corners....and at -4.5 opener, I feel like I put myself in a very good chance to cash. These two teams are imho in different leagues, but recent play of the Broncos vs some not very good teams gave a generous opener.

I'm not as confident on the Bills pick....mainly because I learned starting C Eric Wood will be out (for the season), about an hour after putting the pick in. As I figured, I did get the best of the line, but come Sunday I'm actually considering buying back a little of that bet and going for the slim chance of a middle, since I can actually get Miami cheaper than the opening -2.5 now....but i'm not sure yet.

NE laying -14.5 is a joke, too, and it's probably about high time to fade the **** out of the Niners...

[Underdog88]

Is Cam hitting a wall, or will he rebound vs the Lions? I am tempted to play the over there. Detroit should be able to move the ball, and Panthers road totals have been high scoring.

[Daws1089]

To me, the fact the jets are such big favs is a telling sign. The just got whooped at home and are now laying pts on the road and the line is growing. Tebow has won 3 road games so why such a high home dog line for him? I think the jets defense is thew type that wont mess around and isnt stupid enough to let denver run. Like Stif said, they have the tools to completely shut down denver. No moreno and a banged up mcgahee too doesn't help. Im not real concerned with the short week travel.

[akatdrake]

I think if Lance Ball goes for Denver, this will help the Jets as he's not a homerun threat. The quote from John Fox ("Tebow cannot run a pro-style offense") tells me they may throw in some gadgets this week as well. Ryan will have the Jets stay disciplined.

Are both Newton and Stafford both regressing UDog? Besides the Denver game, Detroit has failed to hit 20 pts in three out of the last four games, granted against good defenses in CHI, SF, ATL. Seems the entire Detroit team is coming back down to Earth. Carolina's defense isn't exactly stout (only worse defenses are IND and MIN in ppg) and both teams give up 130 on the ground per game. I think Detroit rebounds, and that over looks juicy as well.

[akatdrake]

Is there a possibility Detroit is in a position to look forward to next week vs the Packers? They're basically in a wild-card race with Chicago right now.

[Underdog88]

I think if Lance Ball goes for Denver, this will help the Jets as he's not a homerun threat. The quote from John Fox ("Tebow cannot run a pro-style offense") tells me they may throw in some gadgets this week as well. Ryan will have the Jets stay disciplined.

Are both Newton and Stafford both regressing UDog?

I didn't get a chance to watch most of the Titans/Panthers game, so I don't know how much the shoulder affected Cam. I just don't want to get involved with an over if one team's qb is hurting. I may single in on the Lions tt, but honestly I don't think highly of the Lions defense, they are ranked #4 vs the pass but really haven't faced elite passing teams. I bet they drop considerably after the Panthers, Packers and Saints games. Both tt overs are probably good wagers.

To answer on Stafford regressing... I think he just had a rough game. I really don't think he is (or will be) an elite qb. He just happens to have the best wr on his team and a ton of other talent around him. Still he has faced some tough defenses this season and outside of last week has been more than respectable. Half his picks on the season came last week lol. Cam IMO could be an elite qb, but he is still young and will make mistakes, use his legs too much etc. I could see his running for 60+ yards vs Detroit....

[Underdog88]

Regarding the Broncos/Jets tonight.... everyone is talking about Tebow vs the Jets defense. I think it's just as lopsided on the other side of the ball. The Broncos aren't so great against the run, so how do they stop the Jets offense? If the Jets run game gets going, Sanchez will have all day to make reads. IMO Jets team total is a solid wager as well... Detroit came to Mile High off a loss and pounded Denver, no reason for me to think the Jets don't do the same.

[bluedevil12]

I think losing Shonne Greene in the first half really killed the Jets. Greene is their workhorse and with LT inactive, the Jets didn't have another player on the roster with more than 50 career carries.