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Missed the boat on the two early games this week - probably wouldn't have played either, but they were easy wins for the Falcons and Cowboys.
Here's to hoping I'll continue the little run I am on...
Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 vs Green Bay Packers... honestly, if I had this number at 14 or 13.5, I probably wouldn't be playing it. That being said, I am not 100 percent sold on this pick, so this may start me off on a losing note. Here's what I see in this game though... 1) public all over the Packers (and why shouldn't they be?) at tune of 80%+, 2) Orton starts and has familiarity with Packers seeing as he's spent the majority of his career with Chicago, plus he'll be better equipped to get the ball to Bowe, Breaston, McCluster, etc 3) Packers thinking this is a cupcake game, and not focusing on home tilts vs Chicago and Detroit to end the season, 4) Greg Jennings is out, which might not make a huge difference given the WR depth, but Flowers is a physical corner and he'll be on Nelson's crossing patterns, leaving Carr and Arenas on Jones and Driver, 5) Ryan Grant's breakout performance last week was an abhorration (sp?), 6) Romeo Crennel is coaching to change the interim title to permanent head coach... blah blah blah we could also give six reasons why you like the Packers. I think this is closer than what the experts think.
New Orleans Saints -8 at Minnesota Vikings... why isn't this line closer to the above line? Experts think Minny has a home-field advantage? Mark Ingram out? This boils down to the Saints having the weapons to exploit a terrible Vikings secondary, and then hit them with the draw to Thomas, Sproles, Ivory. They'll be scheming as much on offense (to counter the strength of the Vikes defense - the DL) as on defense... if there's one thing we can say about Gregg Williams, it's that he mixes things up. Vs the Vikings in 2009 NFC Championship - all of the blitzing... then season opener 2010, very few blitzes, more Cover 2 Man and zones... now he's got to worry about Adrian Peterson (why is Minnesota risking him in a lost season?), Percy Harvin, and Joe Webb. Harvin has shown this year that he'll get his several targets and will get open and create plays. Joe Webb will create a matchup problem, but if Williams doesn't blitz up the middle and make Webb run, he should be fine. This is a heavy public pick, but don't be fooled here, the Saints are very much the better team on offense and on defense... the home field advantage of the Vikings won't be much of one considering the Saints play in a raucous dome as well.
Oakland Raiders -1 vs Detroit Lions... Lions started out season on the road vs the Bucs +1 WIN, Minnesota -3 PUSH, Dallas +2.5 WIN, Denver -3 WIN, but have dropped their last two away games SU and ATS at Chicago +2.5, and New Orleans +9. Oakland's rushing attack has stalled a bit over the last three games (Michael Bush averaging something under three yards per attempt) and the Lions have one of the bottom rush defense's in the league. Meanwhile the Lion's stout DL will have some trouble vs one of the better OLs in the league. Public loves the Lions, and they have all season, yet short faves (I have -1/-1) versus a perceived-crappy team? Oakland gets Moore and Heyward-Bey back, and this confusing line has be going against the public here...
Four units each.
Couple of other leans, as I may play more later...
WAS/NYG: line is odd here... Eli really having a nice season, less second half breakdowns and formulating him as a clutch QB, as Udog said, Ahmad Bradshaw will be back completely healthy, the Giants can score points and throw the ball, yet only a TD fave? Would have been more telling if it was -7.5+ here. Washington has to have two or three long drives to keep those big NYG receivers off the field.
CIN/STL: I really want to back Cincy, but having to cover a TD on the road is tough in the NFL even for your most seasoned QBs... yes, STL is bad, Bradford has regressed, McDaniels has lost his offensive mojo, but a TD scares me
SEA/CHI: another confusing line, and I have flip-flopped twice.. thinking Beast Mode will tee off and limit TJack's third-and-longs, Seattle def quietly having a good year... then why on Earth is Chicago a -3.5 pt fave here??? Hanie playing like crap, Beast Mode IS having a good year, and Chicago seems in utter disarry after the Cutler and Forte injuries... in what could be a slug-fest field goal-driven game, why are the Bears laying more than three??? Anyway, I figured better games out there.
MIA/BUF: two teams I don't have a grip on this year, and Miami is on my sh1t list from earlier in the season anyway. Both teams up and down, Miami really needs their running game to go to stand a chance in the cold weather. Buffalo is decimated by injuries but has the offensive advantage, and have been winless since November (I think?) - they're due for one... but line is a pick'em and could go either way.
CAR/HOU: As Udog pointed out a few weeks ago - overs in Carolina are money (4-2; 5-1 if you got a good line @ Indy). Houston has a great rushing attack, Carolina cant defend the run... yet laying six with a rookie QB is something I do not want to do. BUT, with Newton calling out teammates (divaesque) this week, how do they respond???
TEN/IND: I want to play Tennessee here really bad... but I still have faith in IND to get a win this year. I hate to see a team go winless. Tennessee gets Hasselbeck back, but would probably back them with Locker - as he's been on a roll lately. I get the feeling the public will get burnt on a late cover by Ind here...
NE/DEN: wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole
NYJ/PHI: if the Giants win vs the Redskins, the Eagles will officially be out of the playoff hunt... if the Giants win, I'll be betting the Jets here. Spoilers? Nah, teams with huge stars don't want to be spoilers, and their heart won't be in it. Expect the Jets to know this and go keep their season alive. I really cannot cap this game much because of the emotional/motivational factor that will play in the early games for the Eagles.
CLE/ARI: two teams with two back-up QBs? Better plays on the board.
BAL/SD: Haven't looked at it at all really, don't like the SNF/MNF this year as I have been known to force up a play in previous years... however, San Diego seems to have found it's mojo on offense and could be worth a look as a home doggie. Public 70% on Ravens...
Good luck guys!!!
Here's to hoping I'll continue the little run I am on...
Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 vs Green Bay Packers... honestly, if I had this number at 14 or 13.5, I probably wouldn't be playing it. That being said, I am not 100 percent sold on this pick, so this may start me off on a losing note. Here's what I see in this game though... 1) public all over the Packers (and why shouldn't they be?) at tune of 80%+, 2) Orton starts and has familiarity with Packers seeing as he's spent the majority of his career with Chicago, plus he'll be better equipped to get the ball to Bowe, Breaston, McCluster, etc 3) Packers thinking this is a cupcake game, and not focusing on home tilts vs Chicago and Detroit to end the season, 4) Greg Jennings is out, which might not make a huge difference given the WR depth, but Flowers is a physical corner and he'll be on Nelson's crossing patterns, leaving Carr and Arenas on Jones and Driver, 5) Ryan Grant's breakout performance last week was an abhorration (sp?), 6) Romeo Crennel is coaching to change the interim title to permanent head coach... blah blah blah we could also give six reasons why you like the Packers. I think this is closer than what the experts think.
New Orleans Saints -8 at Minnesota Vikings... why isn't this line closer to the above line? Experts think Minny has a home-field advantage? Mark Ingram out? This boils down to the Saints having the weapons to exploit a terrible Vikings secondary, and then hit them with the draw to Thomas, Sproles, Ivory. They'll be scheming as much on offense (to counter the strength of the Vikes defense - the DL) as on defense... if there's one thing we can say about Gregg Williams, it's that he mixes things up. Vs the Vikings in 2009 NFC Championship - all of the blitzing... then season opener 2010, very few blitzes, more Cover 2 Man and zones... now he's got to worry about Adrian Peterson (why is Minnesota risking him in a lost season?), Percy Harvin, and Joe Webb. Harvin has shown this year that he'll get his several targets and will get open and create plays. Joe Webb will create a matchup problem, but if Williams doesn't blitz up the middle and make Webb run, he should be fine. This is a heavy public pick, but don't be fooled here, the Saints are very much the better team on offense and on defense... the home field advantage of the Vikings won't be much of one considering the Saints play in a raucous dome as well.
Oakland Raiders -1 vs Detroit Lions... Lions started out season on the road vs the Bucs +1 WIN, Minnesota -3 PUSH, Dallas +2.5 WIN, Denver -3 WIN, but have dropped their last two away games SU and ATS at Chicago +2.5, and New Orleans +9. Oakland's rushing attack has stalled a bit over the last three games (Michael Bush averaging something under three yards per attempt) and the Lions have one of the bottom rush defense's in the league. Meanwhile the Lion's stout DL will have some trouble vs one of the better OLs in the league. Public loves the Lions, and they have all season, yet short faves (I have -1/-1) versus a perceived-crappy team? Oakland gets Moore and Heyward-Bey back, and this confusing line has be going against the public here...
Four units each.
Couple of other leans, as I may play more later...
WAS/NYG: line is odd here... Eli really having a nice season, less second half breakdowns and formulating him as a clutch QB, as Udog said, Ahmad Bradshaw will be back completely healthy, the Giants can score points and throw the ball, yet only a TD fave? Would have been more telling if it was -7.5+ here. Washington has to have two or three long drives to keep those big NYG receivers off the field.
CIN/STL: I really want to back Cincy, but having to cover a TD on the road is tough in the NFL even for your most seasoned QBs... yes, STL is bad, Bradford has regressed, McDaniels has lost his offensive mojo, but a TD scares me
SEA/CHI: another confusing line, and I have flip-flopped twice.. thinking Beast Mode will tee off and limit TJack's third-and-longs, Seattle def quietly having a good year... then why on Earth is Chicago a -3.5 pt fave here??? Hanie playing like crap, Beast Mode IS having a good year, and Chicago seems in utter disarry after the Cutler and Forte injuries... in what could be a slug-fest field goal-driven game, why are the Bears laying more than three??? Anyway, I figured better games out there.
MIA/BUF: two teams I don't have a grip on this year, and Miami is on my sh1t list from earlier in the season anyway. Both teams up and down, Miami really needs their running game to go to stand a chance in the cold weather. Buffalo is decimated by injuries but has the offensive advantage, and have been winless since November (I think?) - they're due for one... but line is a pick'em and could go either way.
CAR/HOU: As Udog pointed out a few weeks ago - overs in Carolina are money (4-2; 5-1 if you got a good line @ Indy). Houston has a great rushing attack, Carolina cant defend the run... yet laying six with a rookie QB is something I do not want to do. BUT, with Newton calling out teammates (divaesque) this week, how do they respond???
TEN/IND: I want to play Tennessee here really bad... but I still have faith in IND to get a win this year. I hate to see a team go winless. Tennessee gets Hasselbeck back, but would probably back them with Locker - as he's been on a roll lately. I get the feeling the public will get burnt on a late cover by Ind here...
NE/DEN: wouldn't touch this game with a ten-foot pole
NYJ/PHI: if the Giants win vs the Redskins, the Eagles will officially be out of the playoff hunt... if the Giants win, I'll be betting the Jets here. Spoilers? Nah, teams with huge stars don't want to be spoilers, and their heart won't be in it. Expect the Jets to know this and go keep their season alive. I really cannot cap this game much because of the emotional/motivational factor that will play in the early games for the Eagles.
CLE/ARI: two teams with two back-up QBs? Better plays on the board.
BAL/SD: Haven't looked at it at all really, don't like the SNF/MNF this year as I have been known to force up a play in previous years... however, San Diego seems to have found it's mojo on offense and could be worth a look as a home doggie. Public 70% on Ravens...
Good luck guys!!!
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