***Week 2 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Some good discussion for week one, but we can do better!


Thoughts on the Bills....

Week one went pretty much as I expected, Jets exploited the secondary, and Fitz make piss poor decisions early in the game. Losing Nelson for the season hurts, as he was the only oversized wr on the roster, and clearly the second best wr option. Donald Jones will get a bigger role now, and rookie TJ Graham will likely get more time now. After that it's Brad Smith & Ruvell Martin... yikes! Fred out hurts, and despite what they say I would be surprised to see him before week 10. Offensively it was nice to see Spiller run all over the Jets the way he did, but now he will be keyed in on. Fitz did make plays in the second half, albeit after the game was out of reach.

This week the Bills will beat the Chiefs. Bowe will likely get a couple big yardage catches, but in the end I think Cassel won't be able to exploit the Bills secondary as much. Total is set at 45, which is about where I would set it seeing that both teams allowed 40+. I have a slight lean to the Bills tt over, but will wait to find out the status of Kendrick Lewis and Brandon Flowers first. Will likely be on the Bills ats and likely a smaller play on an alternate spread.

[Underdog88]

torn on tomorrow's game.... I nearly played the Bears to win the conference but pussed out. I have my doubts about their secondary, and if there is ever a team that you don't want to face with a questionable secondary it would be GB at home. I think the GB defense hasn't changed a lick, and the Bears should be able to move the ball. They have the definitive size advantage when it comes to wr vs cbs. I could see Marshall and Jeffery making big plays down the sidelines. So both teams have good passing attacks and what I think to be supbar secondaries... I may be square and play the over.

[Iron Protocol]

I wrote my wishy washy "I'm waiting" analysis in my week 2 thread for Packers-Bears, but new information has come to light. Bears are saying Urlacher will play & you can get the spread at 5.5 now, and Tillman was limited today and is questionable for tomorrow. So... 1 pro, 1 con, and 1 neutral. I'm finding 5.5 or hopefully down to 5 tomorrow evening as a more attractive bet. With Tillman shaky and Urlacher probably not 100% I like Rodgers chances through the air. If it gets down to 5 or under I might pull the trigger, I'm not solid on this game as both are capable of having a great game. Might be worth sitting out for those who don't like wagering on a shoot out.

[Iron Protocol]

Let's hear what people think on Jets-Steelers. I'm hearing a heavy dose of Steeler love around the web. Lots of folks think the Jets had their one game wonder and will come back down to average-dom. I agree the Jets offense is probably top 10-ish, but we should all agree their special teams and defense (2-TDs last week) will certainly do their best to keep them in the fight deep into the 4th quarter. I'm willing to let the public keep hearing the praisers of Pittsburgh and drive that line up another point or two and I'll gladly take the Jets to cover on the road by 6 or more.

What about the Lions-49ers? If you ever listen to NPR's Wednesday morning Sports commentator (more poet than analyst) you may have heard one trend worth turning the radio up for this morning. Disclaimer: I usually avoid most back-tested trends, but this one makes some sense. Maybe this isn't a surprise to many of you, in fact, you see this ploy in CFB all the time. The gist is that West Coast Teams are 70% ATS when playing the Sunday night or MNF games against an East Coast Time Zone team. Body rhythm, internal clock and that jazz. I really don't want to play while the line is at 7, but I'm leaning 49ers by about that much right now. Detroit is capable and can stay with any team, but the 2012 49ers aren't most teams. I think Detroit will be very limited on the ground and then the sheer quantity of passing might just allow a few picks by the 9ers. If San Fran can get out to an early lead and burn the clock on the ground game, the Lions might be force to air it out more than they want, which plays right into the hands of the undisputed #1 defense right now. What you guys say?

I'm leaning Titans to cover the 6 points against the Chargers right now because of San Diego's lack of 3rd down conversions, red zone efficiency, and confidence in the passing attack. If the long snapping troubles hadn't happened to the Raiders, the Chargers should have lost that game. Now, one could joke that San Diego really just wanted to get Kaeding working again after an entire season off (a-hole, I drafted him last year in Fantasy only to watch him jam up his leg on the first play of the season). Each time the Chargers were gifted great field position they pissed it away and opted for the 3 points. I think (despite the shoulder sling) Locker and the offense will move the ball well enough to stay in this game for around a field goal. I'm not impressed with San Diego's defense either, Oakland was running and passing effectively all game long. Lastly, I might be the only guy who sees Kenny Britt's return as a significant net positive. In the handful of games he played last year, he lit defenses up. He might not be back 100%, but at three-quarter strength he's still one menacing downfield WR.

I haven't given much thought to the other games yet, but I'll check back to see what the buzz is from everyone else this week.

GL

[maddoggie]

I look at the numbers, and use my gut. I find that when I overanalyze/overthink things - that's when things go awry. Divisional game means both teams know each other and their tendencies pretty well -- leans me to UNDER. Packers defense will show up tonight, after last weeks subpar performance. Same goes for the Packer offense. I see a 13-17 point win for the Packers after Cutler throws a couple ints. I am thinking Packers 30 Bears 17. But what the heck do I know. Just a hunch/gut feeling after crunching a few numbers.

~md

[Horfin]

My quick thoughts:

Bears are being given too much credit for the lashing they gave the Indy team. Uhm at home, rookie qb first start and a 1-15 team last year. What else would you expect 41-14. Sounds about right.

Packers got smacked inthe face by a team that is not getting the respect they deserve. 49ers are the elite of the NFC with GB and Giants. GB is not going to lose two in a row at home to open a season and three straight at home (going back to playoffs). Compare Offenses. This is not the same league that "Defenses win championships." The rules have changed and so now "Offenses win Championships." Id take Rogers at home with his WR and pathetic running game any day over the Bears with Cutler and his improved WR and decent running game.

Pack looks great to me. Line is 4.5, I expect 10-14.

Horfin

[Stifler's Mom]

all I read this week is how elite sf is. I think personally I need to see more to believe they are anything more than very good. their offense moving the ball on gb doesn't impress me much and I have yet to see anything overly thrilling from this year's version of their defense either. not saying they're not as good as people are crediting them for after 1 game, just that I'm skeptical.

green bay having no running game and no defense has caught up to them, imo. it's gonna be real tough for this team who can't stop anyone or run the football to control the game and keep their already crappy defense off the field against any type of decent competition this year unless they make some improvements in both of those areas, and fast.

with all that being said, jay cutler is a pansy who throws like a girl and will more than likely throw a couple of completions to gb defenders tonight, like he usually does. if he does that, the bears will lose, and history suggests he most likely will, so I'll probably hold my nose at the stench of gb's defense, know that the team winning the turnover battle wins at a huge percentage of the time, and that the winner also covers spreads under 7 a large percentage of the time as well, and lay the pts with gb.

if cutler holds it together and plays a completely clean game for a change, I'll take my L and move on

[akatdrake]

Giants/Bucs - Seven seems like an awfully large number to cover for a team that isn't quite right on offense. Their running game was atrocious vs the Cowboys, and their receivers didn't make the plays needed. On defense, they failed to exploit the Cowboys OL and Romo had a good bit of time to find what he needed.

Vikings/Colts - This may be one of the winnable games left on the Vikings schedule, though typically the Vikings struggle in 'winnable' games. The Vikes LB corps is weak, and struggle vs athletic TEs, and Fleener is just that. He already has a rapport with Luck, and had six receptions. The key for the Vikings will be Chris Cook containing Reggie Wayne. I like Cook, he has a big body, he's a physical corner, but he's good for at least one mental lapse. Offensively for the Vikes, they'll want to continue to give AP carries, but I don't think they'll give as many to him in the first half as last week. You don't want to rush him back. Despite what many herald as his coming back party, if you watched last week, he was tentative cutting back left (as everyone would be), and so they ran off right tackle much more. Ponder will want to get into a groove more quickly. My heart and head take the Vikings, but I'm done with betting them for the rest of the year.

Saints/Panthers - Saints too emotional last week and lose SU as 8-pt chalk, Panthers struggle vs Bucs in 16-10 loss. Cam Newton is similar to what they faced last year, but the Saints contained him last year, and they're used to him. I think it's a bit of an overreaction for the Saints, yet the line hasn't moved despite 77% on the public. My book has it -1/-1, so I might end up biting on the Saints, but am I overthinking it as a trap line or is Vegas trying to balance the Cam vs public perception on Saints' disappointment? I cannot back off my assessment last week that the Saints are going to put their foot on the NFL's throat, so I'll probably be on the Saints.

Chiefs/Buffalo - another line that hasn't moved despite the majority of bettors on the underdog. Bills lose starting RB and WR. I am staying away from this curious line and allow Udog to do the talking on it.

Baltimore/Philadelphia - talk about another weird line and public perception. Perhaps I'm overthinking this game as well, but I really want to take Baltimore. In fact almost 90 percent is on Baltimore and the line is pretty solid. We all saw Balty destroy Pittsburgh, and heard/saw highlights of Philly struggling offensively at Cleveland despite four Weeden picks. Yet the line hasn't moved!!! Make no mistake, Philly has a good team. It should be interesting if the Eagles can get the running game going to take some relief off of Vick.

Washington/St. Louis - does WAS deserve to be a road favorite or does St. Louis suddenly look like a team that can compete after a narrow loss vs Detroit? I really want to take St. Louis to cover the line. I think WAS comes back down to Earth this week.