Championship Weekend- Niners All the Way

[ATLfun]

First of all, I will not be touching the Raven/Patriot game at all. That game could have more plot twists than a Grisham novel.

I am not sure that the Patriots can exploit the Raven defense like they did Texas. And Flacco and Co. proved that they could handle playoff pressure. I would not be surprised at a 17-14 game or 35-27 game for either team. My bankroll has come to far to take part in this game.

The Niner/Falcon game is a different story. I cannot believe how low the line is and how cheaply you can buy -2 1/2 for the Niners. The Falcons run a schematic style defense that is running on empty. The Seattle tight end caught more passes against them than he does in practice.

A Bend but don't break defense will not work on the Niners without some pass rush. The Falcon's John Abraham re-injured his ankle and went out of the Seattle game in the second quarter. John had two weeks to let the ankle heal with no success, why should this week be different? The Falcon defense is average with him and below average without him.

Niners- Better O-line, Better D-line, Better Run Game, Marginally Better Secondary.
Falcons- Better Recievers, Marginally Better Quarterback

I am putting my money where my mouth is. I am taking my bowl bets plus my bowl winnings and placing it on the Niners which represents almost a third of my bankroll. This will be my last bet of the football season, and for me, I believe it is one of the strongest.


Pending 1/20/13 3:00pm NFL Football 301 San Francisco 49ers -2½ -150* vs Atlanta Falcons


GL to everyone this weekend.

[ATLfun]

Line is starting to move. Now -2 1/2 on the Niners is -160, and -3 1/2 is -110. I would be surprised if this line does not move a little more in favor of the Niners. If you are betting on the Falcons, I would wait until the weekend.

[ATLfun]

The betting must be heavy on the Niners because the line keeps getting more expensive.

Niners -2 1/2 is now 172
Niners -4 1/2 is now 110


I am so glad that I got in when I did. I think the -4 1/2 is about right. It might go to -5 but anything more would be a surprise since the Falcons are at home.

[ATLfun]

Pro-Falcon bettors can get the Falcons +5 for -118. Not a bad deal if you are a believer. I think the possibility for an offensive explosion will keep the line around -4 1/2 -5.

But keep in mind the Texans posted 28 against the Patriots, a respectable offensive number, but gave up 41. Does anybody really think that the Falcons defense is an updated version of the "Steel Curtain?" They are ranked 23rd against the pass and 21st against the rush.

While SF is ranked 4th against both the run and the pass. All they have to do is hold their own on defense like they did against Green Bay, and take advantage of Atlanta's porous defense.

Having said all of that, it is still gambling so if you want safety buy a bank CD.


.

[ATLfun]

Just for posterity sake, I only bet the Niner game. Thank goodness I got in early at -3 and then decided to bet a third of the farm at 2 1/2 when it was cheap. Plus, a small bet on the over, as I figured that a shootout was Atlanta's only chance. And every bet was a winner!!!!!


158050279-1 1/13/13 5:29pm Win 1/20/13 3:00pm NFL Football 301 San Francisco 49ers -2½ -150* vs Atlanta Falcons

158041178-1 1/13/13 4:37pm Win 1/20/13 3:00pm NFL Football 301 San Francisco 49ers -3 -125* vs Atlanta Falcons

158041178-2 1/13/13 4:37pm Win 1/20/13 3:00pm NFL Football 301 San Francisco 49ers/Atlanta Falcons Over 48 -110*