My thoughts on the TITLE GAMES

[yomonte]

I'm the biggest Falcon fan this side of hell. My brother and I have discussed
Atl all year. My point has been they have been winning ugly and his point has been they are an 8-8 team but less penalties and turnovers brought them to #1 seed. They lost to a worfless Carolina team for crying out loud. Atl has to play better than they have all year to win this one and if they don't, I'll be rooting for SF in the SB.

[ATLfun]

To hash out the ball games. Let's keep this post going right up until game time.


If somebody gave you 100 in cash money and said place this on either Baltimore +7 or NE -11 .. Which one would you choose?

If I had to pick between those two options, I would go with Baltimore but can you really bet against Brady?

Even though Brady is 8-6 since his last Super Bowl win, I am not ready to take that chance. Brady is not that crafty veteran getting by with guile. He can still play at the highest levels .

But I just believe that Flacco is ready for prime time and the Baltimore defense has one more great effort in them. Baltimore beat them in the playoffs in '09 and lost by only three points last year in New England in the Conference Championship.

And I like the play this year by Baltimore's Paul Kruger. He is basically a pass rush specialist, and he had 2 1/2 sacks against the Colts in the playoffs. I have a feeling that he will have a good game.

Having said all of that, there is no way that I am betting on that game. Heck, even the under and the over look plausible.

[ATLfun]

Why, I am avoiding the Patriots game? Well, I will start with the Patriots. When is a legend not so legendary? Remember, Kurt Warner and the Rams were the "greatest show on turf," the future of football. They were almost 2 touchdown favorites to the Patriots in the 2001 Super Bowl and lost.

The Patriots were considered losers much like Atlanta or San Diego. In their only Super Bowl appearance they received the ultimate beat down by the Chicago Bears. Belichick was a loser in Cleveland. Drew Bledsoe was the All-Pro and Brady was a 7th round scrub who won the starting position because he was Belichick's boy.

Today, the Patriots are considered a legendary team. But have they outkicked their coverage? Yes, they won three Super Bowls. But that was almost a decade ago ( '01,'03 and '04. But they have also lost their last two Super Bowls to the NY Giants. ('11,'07).

I feel that any playoff point spread represents represents about 2 points of nostalgia for what they used to be. Here is what they are today:

4th in Passing Offense
7th in Rushing Offense
29th in Pass Defense
9th in Rush Defense

[BuzzBomb]

great thread.

[BUNK MORELAND]

This is exactly why i come to this forum

To hash out the ball games. Let's keep this post going right up until game time.

Now, I know you said you are staying as far away from NE / BALT as you can without moving to Istanbul.. But don't you feel that Baltimore is got to be a bit drained physically and emotionally after that 5 quarter marathon in Denver of all places to have to play a playoff over time game.

Besides Gronk being out NE is very healthy and that running game looks scary good right now with Vereen entering the mix as a threat to score from anywhere on the field in both the run and the pass game.

Mr. Atlfun,

If somebody gave you 100 in cash money and said place this on either Baltimore +7 or NE -11 .. Which one would you choose?

[ATLfun]

Nothing but love here Bunk. I find debating over sports picks an amusing contradiction. Even your critics are wrong 40% of the time or more. :sm:

I hate betting playoff football. But I still think this is a very strong play. Turnovers and penalties are always key, and especially so in playoff football. Atlanta is 4th best in the turnover ratio (+13) and the Falcons this year were the least penalized team in the NFL.

That bodes well for Atlanta. I am an Atlanta fan, I just believe in what I see. But if they win, then I look at the lost wagers as equal to buying four tickets to the game this Sunday. :sm:

For the record, SF is ranked 6th in turnovers with +9, and while the Falcons are the least penalized team in the NFL, SF is the 27th most penalized team. But in the last three games SF about the 10th most penalized team.

[BUNK MORELAND]

Here has been my style as of late

IT'S JUST ONE GAME ..

With all those stats mentioned and who has the better secondary, who has the better linebackers , who has the better offensive coordinator, would SF beat ATL 4 out of 7 ???

YES SIR , they probably would ..

I'm a spot player, I have a feel and I throw from the hip.

That's why I'm a HOOPS player and not really an NFL guy ..

Hoops is 5 on 5 with coaching ...

Trust me ATL I respect your opinion and after reading your post, I don't like ATL so much now.

But it's just one game....I'll put my money on the home dog getting 4.5 ... Anything over the 3 is gravy in this one, don't be surprised if that number falls to 3 (SF -120) before gametime.

I'm not an NFL guy, I rarely post NFL .. I just have a gut feeling that ATL will put together a good game plan and either win this game or lose by a couple

[ATLfun]

Atlanta certainly has the receivers, but what about the defense? The Falcon defense is ranked 21st against the run and 23rd against the pass. Since the Niners can both run (Gore/Kaep) and Pass (Kaep/Vernon Davis/Crabtree), how is Atlanta going to stop them?

While the Niners defense is 4th against the run and 4th against the pass. And Atlanta's O-line is suspect at best. Heck, the starting left tackle (Sam Baker) was considered a bust until this year which is his contract year (go figure.)

Atlanta certainly has a puncher's chance much like Hagler, but I will bet on Sugar Ray everytime. :thumbs:

[BUNK MORELAND]

At first glance I got to think ATL is the play.

I think those big receivers (Julio and Roddy) will give the SF defense a lot of problems.

Tony Gonzo too ..

4.5 ????

Wow ... .... Colin K is scary for sure. however SF has struggled in domes this year and lost to some teams they should of beat.

I'm not the biggest NFL guy when it comes to wagering , however it's going to be tough for me to NOT play ATL at home.. A #1 seed at home getting 4.5 ... I think that number will fall .....

One thing that I noticed last week with SF - Why was Frank Gore taking himself out of the game so much.. He would run the ball , walk back to the huddle, and tap himself on the head ... Is he hurt. Was he under the weather.



It will also be tough for me to go against TB and the pats.

Running game is in high gear, Brady is in high gear, and I don't think the GRONK loss will hurt them much..

Baltimore had to play a game and a half basically and I think that took a lot out of them..

I'm gonna say NE vs ATL shorty !


Like I said , i'm not the biggest NFL guy, more of a college hoops guy so I expect some people to call me a rum dum or a horses ass , that's fine.

just my opinion