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Super Bowl 47 Over/Under Pick

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  • Super Bowl 47 Over/Under Pick

    San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens
    Over/Under: 48

    I've been debating taking the 49ers all week but I really think the best bet for Super Bowl 47 is on the total.

    San Francisco’s offense will look to run early and often in this contest and QB Colin Kaepernick is the key. He torched Green Bay with outside runs when they covered the inside run and made good decisions against Atlanta by handing the ball off inside in the Niners zone read system. Baltimore represents a different challenge. They have had two weeks to prepare and their backup QB, Tyrod Taylor, has run this offense in practice. He has the speed to simulate Kaepernick and the Ravens should do better than the Falcons and Packers in defending it. Kaepernick has the arm to test this defense deep and a couple of players in TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree who can make plays down the field. Baltimore has done a good job of containing QBs Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the playoffs but Kaepernick’s running ability poses a different challenge. This is only his ninth start at QB and we feel the veteran secondary of the Ravens will give him confusing looks. FS Ed Reed has made a living out of outguessing young QBs throughout his career and we feel he will make some big plays in this contest. These two teams met in 2011 and the Ravens amassed nine sacks in a 16-6 victory. While we don’t envision that type of performance again, it will definitely be in the minds of the 49ers O-line.

    Like San Francisco, Baltimore wants to establish the run early. Since Jim Caldwell took over as offensive co-ordinator, the Ravens are running the ball more. They are averaging seven more carries per game in the playoffs than in the regular season and have made good use of rookie RB Bernard Pierce in a support role behind RB Ray Rice. The 49ers run defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry in the playoffs but only 92.5 yards per game. DL Justin Smith appears to be healthier than he has in over a month and his ability to play at a higher level will certainly help the run defense. QB Joe Flacco has a sterling 8-0 TD/INT ratio in the playoffs but is completing only 54.8 pct. of his passes. If that type of accuracy continues, the Ravens could be in for several three-and-outs. San Francisco has had trouble defending the long ball and Flacco has the weapons to take advantage. This is another area where the health of Justin Smith comes into play. OLB Aldon Smith hasn’t had a sack since Justin Smith has been injured and he should be able to get a good push on the outside with another pass rusher on the other side. The 49ers have only two sacks in the playoffs and the Smith brothers should be able to increase that number.

    Both of these teams have been scoring in the playoffs but I like the defenses in this game. The Ravens are allowing only 19 points per game in the playoffs and have had two weeks to prepare for the read option offense. The 49ers have had a dominant defense for most of the season and having a healthy front seven should help them return to that type of play. I definitely like defense to be the key to this game and feel the Under is the way to go.
    Take the Super Bowl 47 to go Under 48 points

    You can find 48 as a total at <a href="http://www.predictem.com/sportsbooks/bodog.php" title="Bovada Sportsbook">Bovada Sportsbook</a>. They also offer a 50% bonus up to $250 in free cash!

    <b>Link Added by Admin</b>
    Last edited by The Mailman; 02-03-2013, 02:30 PM.

  • #2
    BOL today!
    Batman: "If you can't spend it, money's just a lot of worthless paper, isn't it?" :phew:

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