*Week 6 Discussion*

[TGold]

In previous years when I used to only read these boards, I remember many of the longtime members would collaborate on discussion threads every week, which I thought provided some great insight into the games.

...Fast forward to this year and these threads seem to be no more, but I figured I'd see if anyone was interested in a little NFL capping discussion. Feel free to chime in - there's lots of good ideas among members here.

To get started, I just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents on a pair of games for this upcoming week, based on the early lines...

PHI @ TB (pk) - Both teams have been largely unstable for a number of reasons to start the season. Based in Tampa's much publicized issues (Freeman vs. Schiano, etc), I think the public goes hard on Philly here, but it looks like a sucker bet to me. Eagles won big at the Giants last week and this is their third consecutive road game. I don't see them winning B2B road games, so my lean here is with Tampa Bay pk

OAK (+9.5) @ KC - The Chiefs have been one of the league's biggest surprises so far, rejuvenated by the partnership between Andy Reid and Alex Smith and their defense has allowed the fewest PPG in the NFL. I love their D's ability to rush the passer and use that pass rush to create turnovers. Oakland is coming off a DD win over the favored Chargers and Pryor looked very good (18-23, 221yds, 2 TD, 31yds rushing). I think Denarius Moore is one of the league's more underrated WRs - he plays bigger than his 6'0 frame! While Arrowhead is as tough a place to play as any, I'm not buying the Chiefs as near double-digit favorites in a divisional game. My lean is to the Raiders +9.5

If anyone wants to chime in on these two games, go right ahead...or if you want to take a closer look at some of the other Week 6 match-ups, that's cool too. Happy 'capping!

[sk35]

Totally agree on the Chiefs. They relied on their def to win game but they don't score lots of pts. If any team can score fast on them, maybe with turnover or SP team, can win. We see that happens all the time in NFL. I'll take that chance with the Raiders this week.

[TGold]

Let's add another one to perhaps pique some interest.

NYG @ CHI (-9.5) - As bad as the Giants have been this year, they've been even worse on the road, scoring 0 and 7 points in respective blowout losses to Carolina and Kansas City. Their defense has yet to allow less than 30 points in a game (worst in the NFL) and on the other side of the ball, they sport the league's worst rushing attack, least time of possession and third-fewest PPG. Throw in Eli's league-leading 12 interceptions and it's just been a colossal train wreck. The Giants have been underdogs in all 6 weeks this year (failing to cover), but this is the first time the spread has been greater than 3.5. After a 3-0 start, the Bears have dropped two in a row and this home match up vs. NYG may be a good opportunity for them to right the ship. Trestman needs to show that he can rally his team after a pair of losses, and they played reasonably well in New Orleans last weekend. To me, this line looks about right, but it's hard for me to side with the turnover-prone, struggling Gmen, who could easily put up another dud and lose by 25+. To me, it's Bears (-9.5) or no play.

Any thoughts?

[TGold]

Worth noting that since the lines opened, both the Bills/Bengals & Bears/Giants games have dropped by more than two points.

When Lewis was announced as the Bills starting QB, the line hit +9.5, which is where the Giants/Bears game started too. Now, both games are sitting at either 7 or 7.5 on a lot of books.

My assumption for the Bills/Bengals line change is the news about the returning Bills DBs - Gilmore, McKelvin and Byrd were all practising yesterday and could play. Their front 7 should get some pressure on Dalton and keep their running game in check.

The question remaining is whether the offence can do anything, especially with Stevie Johnson limited and Spiller/Jackson banged up.

--
Edit: since I posted this morning, the Bears/Giants line is back up to 9.5 on Pinnacle, but holding at 7.5 on places like Sportsinteraction and 8 on Bodog. Tough one to read...moving all over the place

[The Mailman]

I agree with your TB play. Philly's defense is horrible. Foles is an adequate QB, but isn't really a good fit for Chip Kelly's offense.

I like Carolina this week, getting absolutely no respect at Minnesota. Cassell is worthless. Last week CAR got matched up on the road against a Cards team stuffs the run, which is CAR's bread and butter. I think the Panthers win SU at Minny.

[The Mailman]

I also think Indy's D gets exposed at SD on Monday night.

[akatdrake]

My initial leans on the above games are right in line with you. I like the Tampa defense to get after Foles and confuse him.

Also hoping Pryor can put back-to-back decent games so I can have some confidence backing him. Oakland is not very good at all.

[akatdrake]

Again another reason I cannot back the Giants - they really have to show SOMETHING.

I also like Carolina as I have been bearish on the Vikings all season. I don't think Cassel is a much of an upgrade over Ponder, and unless Freeman is the answer (I don't think he is; Spielman wants his a rookie franchise QB), the team doesn't have much offense outside of Peterson. That being said, Cam Newton is not a very good road QB and might struggle if the Dome gets loud.

[Underdog88]

Buying low on the Texans in some fashion sunday. Texans off 3 straight losses with the Rams off a blowout home win vs the Jags. Let's not forget the Texans lost to 3 potentially playoff bound teams, Rams are not in that category. I have visions of Watt all over Bradford from the jump. Texans team total will be 24.5, but it is more than justified even with the way Shaub had played.

Rams allowed

24 vs Zona
31 @Atl
31@Dal
35 vs SF
20 vs Jax


Finally a game where Foster can flex, playing the 29th ranked rush. Foster prop, Texans ats & team total all look like solid wagers to me

[Underdog88]

Bills/Cincy could go either way total wise, but I don't think I can endorse an over wager. Byrd making his season debut, the deep pass will at the very least be slowed. Dalton gets sloppy and the Bills have the playmakers to make him pay. I wouldn't expect the game plan to include Thad slinging it downfield too often. Leon Hall seems as if he will be returning for Cincy, and Stevie J hasn't practiced yet and had a death in the family. Even with him in don't be surprised to see the Bills run 70% of the time. There will be drive stalls and the clock will likely be running. Could be a field position type battle here, Bills finally wised up and got a decent punter back onto the team. Bengals have a nice defensive front, but GB was able to run on them. We will see how they fare vs the #3 rushing offense in the game, that hasn't even played to their full potential yet. Still think the Bills tt is an over or no play, likely to be lined at 17 juiced. I think I would have to wait to be sure steve is active first though. So leaning Bengals tt under/Bills tt over but there is not much wiggle room. May very well be grabbing the points over the total play, already on the ML




Starting to warm up to a Packers/Ravens over. Baltimore has faced one elite qb this season, and Peyton threw 7 tds. No Clay and GBs pass d is sketchy anyway- both GB road games got into the 60's. Even if the Ravens decide they want to pound the run, this game could get into the mid 50's... have a tough time seeing either team getting held under 23 points. Anyone have thoughts?

[akatdrake]

Udog, any word on S. Gilmore for the Bills? If active, does he get action? Is he a playmaker or even a factor consider when capping? Dalton has taken a step back in the games I've seen this season. I agree with the assessment of a quick game, and will prob be on the Bills given a TD.

I have been looking at the overs in the GB/BAL game too; some people really down on R. Cobb as a fantasy factor this week as they think Balty will be able to force some turnovers via the DL. Balty will try to run the ball, but ultimately will need to keep up with the quick passing game of the Packers. I like the overs.

Interested to see how the Panthers/VIkings game goes with dealing with AP's death. Gosh that is horrible. It would be pretty awesome to watch him go for 300 plus! :) Unfortunately the Vikes OL has definitely taken a step back this year with Kalil's offseason bout of pneumonia really still affecting him (over 30 lbs lost). Loadhold is awful at RT.

Anyone talking about the giant spread with Jacksonville/Denver? That line has done nothing but go down after coming out at 28+. I like Denver 1H for sure, and wonder if a backdoor cover comes with Peyton only playing 2-3 quarters?? Doubt MJD does much in the first half but like Blackmon with Henne. I'm starting Henne in fantasy (eek!), so maybe 300 plus?

[akatdrake]

Does Pitt look at some consideration without Kellen Winslow as Smith's favorite target?

Also, what about the Saints/Pats game? IObviously most read this as a high-scoring game and you think the Saints have been the most consistent over the season so far. Sure the Pats have a great record, but the competition hasn't been stiff. I'll likely be on the Saints.