Final Fake Week: Stupidity

[Horfin]

What idiot parlays in the final week of pre-season? ME

1 pre-season unit to win 6 pre-season units:
Minnesota -2
Pittsburgh +3.5
Atlanta (Friday) +3.5


Stupiditly yours,


Horfin

Moneyline 3-1 +1.4 units
Sides 19-14 +3.6 units
Totals 2-0 +1.8 units
ALL NFL 24-15 +6.8 units
(I'll have more tommorry)

[rjp]

:nuts:

Go Pitt

[Horfin]

NY Giants +3.5
Cleveland +4.0
Minnesota -2
Tennessee -7
Pittsburgh +3.5
Miami -1.5
Arizona +4.5

[Horfin]

1 pre-season unit to win 6 pre-season units:
Minnesota -2
Pittsburgh +3.5
Atlanta (Friday) +3.5

So any suggestions on how best to middle the man on this one? I want my guaranteed money.

I have 1 to win 6 if Altanta Covers +3.5

Now I can make a play on Balti.......Give me your thoughts!


Horfin

[Horfin]

Okay... Did a little math:

right now I have 1 unit to win 6 with Atl +3.5 Here are my options:

1. Make no other plays. If Atl covers I am up 6 units, If I lose I am out 1.

2. Make a small play on Balt -3.5 of 1.1 units to win 1 unit. If Balt covers then I break even, If ATL covers I am up 4.9 units.

3. Bet 3.7 units on Baltimore -3.5 to win 3.3 units. If Baltimore covers I am up 2.3 units (3.3 won minus the 1 bet on the parlay). If Atlanta Covers I am up 2.3 units (6 won minus the 3.7 bet on Baltimore).

4. Somewhere in between.

Anythoughts on letting it ride or the guaranteed money?

Thanks
Horfin

[rjp]

Horfin, hedging is typically a bad idea. Although you could guarantee yourself money, you need to answer this before hedging:

Is Atlanta +3.5 -EV and is Baltimore -3.5 +EV? If yes, then absolutely hedge out.

So many people tend to hedge out in these spots, but it's rarely the right thing to do.

King Yao did a great job explaining issues with middling and hedging in "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting", so you might want to give that a look, although that won't help you for tonight.

The market suggests a move down to -3, so what I'd do is wait and see if you can get -3, and if so consider buying down to -2.5 to try for a middle. The only downside here is you might get charged too much, as the 3 is worth less in the preseason.

[Horfin]

Good thoughts RJP.

The line is down to -3 (-120). I could actually buy 1 point and get it at -2 (-155) doing this would mean:

4.25 on Balt -2 (-155) to win 2.74
with
Atl +3.5 to win 6.

If Balt wins by 4 or more , I win 1.74 units (2.74 won -1 from the parlay)
If Atlanta wins straight up or loses by 1 then I win 1.75 units (6 won - 4.25 lost from balt bet)

If Balt wins by 2 then I get my 4.25 back and collect the 6 units

If Balt wins by 3 then I win 8.74 units
(win both bets)

I'll be watching the line. If I do that I am guaranteed to win 1.74 units with a shot at 8.7 units.

Horfin

[rjp]

Buy as few points as possible. The best value is probably to get the best price for Baltimore -2.5 as you can. I'd say try and earn an even number of units either way, and then if you get lucky and it lands on balt -3 then you have a sweet middle.

[homedawg]

**** that, open the window.... bal ml is only around -175..... Better odds at a middle!....It's the books money you are betting with tonight! :beerbang:

[rjp]

Hell, now that I think about it, if you can get BAL -3 for cheap that might be the best hedge. I haven't done the math, but if you push BAL -3 then you win the ATL +3.5, but if you were to lose ATL +3.5 then you will for sure win BAL -3. This way you pay a very cheap price, as it seems you really just want to guarantee a profit.

[homedawg]

bal ml 350 to win 200
+800 win both
+250 win 3teamer only
+100 win bal ml only
:beer2:

[homedawg]

Rjp, no matter what, if balty wins by 4 or more, he loses the parlay.... If the game is within 3points balty win, he gets +800, if atl wins outright, he can still gain +250... I play every bet to win, 1 at a time, no use tryin' to get gready on this 1 bet. Play to win!:beerbang:

[rjp]

Very true, but with the market move ATL +3.5 is a very nice price. Not going to win all the time, but going to bring home the bacon over the long haul. Therefore, we should try value that for what it's worth and not just hedge out because we can.

[homedawg]

the way I see it, balty covers, but I dont like layin' -3.5 especially at the high juice its at
-120...books came off the number for a reason, and not because of the public... no play for me... Only Horfy, can make his own bet!

[Horfin]

Thanks for all the discussion. I have decided yet, but I can only get Balty ML at -190. Waited too long.:bang: