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  • Thursday frozen turds

    12-23 (-25.10 units)

    Nice season I'm having so far, lol.

    Go ahead, laugh at my reasoning, but I thought i'd do some lame hockey write ups today.....

    NJD/ATL u5 +115

    NJ can't score, but they can defend. This is of course, common knowledge. 4 regulation goals in 3 games so far this year is obviously beyond terrible though, and just because they're playing the thrashers tonight, i don't see why that solves their offensive woes, seeings as how they couldn't score on the NYI either, who just got done giving up 7 to BUF.

    Plus, I don't think the ATL defense is as bad as people are making it out to be. I think the 4 they gave up vs WSH was inflated because the Crapitals were playing catch up the whole game. Then they gave 2 to FLA (in reg) and 4 to MIN, but 3 of those were in the 3rd period. So take away a team playing catch up and one poor period vs MIN, and the ATL defense has been not so bad.

    So putting what I see as a half decent ATL defense up against an NJ offense who is clueless, and has to be by far the worst one they have faced to this point, I can easily see a defensive struggle in this game, with it being very hard to see either one of these teams getting to 4 goals tonight in regulation, really....which other than 3-3 or an empty netter at 3-2 are the only ways I can lose this.

    For + money, I'll give it a whirl....

    ATL +130

    See above. Just can't not bet against a team who can't score (dating back to last season) as a road chalk. Road faves that are inept either offensively or defensively are a recipe for disaster, imho, and NJD certainly qualifies as the former so far....

    VAN/DET u5.5 -140

    Not sure where the VAN goals are going to come from in this game. Now that they're done playing CAL, i think they will be back to their old ways of being unable to score, especially against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even though it can certainly happen, you just can't count on one side to do it all, so I'm going with the under, despite the large juice. And it's not like the VAN defense is hopeless. If VAN puts up a few and this soars over, of if DET wins 5-1ish, then oh well, but I think the under is the correct side here.

    FLA -110

    MIN owns these guys dating back to like 2001 or something, lol. Why essentially a pick em at just -110 then? Fishy, imho....seems the books are loving every penny of MIN money they're currently pulling in on this one. I'll side with the oddsmaker here....

    WSH +115

    PIT is playing poor so far this year i'd say, despite their 2-1-1 record. The public seems to be looking for their breakout game to be tonight, however, as they are backing them in around the 75-80% range as a smallish home fave. The sharper money seems to disagree though, as the line has actually moved back slightly in the favor of the Crapitals at the sharper books, which makes sense to me since the Pens are not scoring much....and it's hard to win when you don't score.

    WSH/PIT u 5.5 +100

    Why only 5.5 here? The public certainly expects a shootout between Ovechkin and Crosby, so why not at least 6? Certainly the books could get even action at the very least with o6 on this game. Therefore I see this as a suspiciously low total, with a pretty strong move in the favor of the under too...most notably at Pinnacle who actually had the u5.5 favored at -107 for a while this morning. This has me thinking the books are siding with the under here, and that they have either gotten or fear getting sharp money on anything more favorable to the under. So I will grab some u5.5 while it's still even money at SIA, as Pittsburgh has scored just 7 regulation goals in 4 tries this year, with their best regulation output being 3 in their opener vs OTT, followed by 1 vs OTT, 1 vs NJD, and 2 against PHI. Maybe they lite up the lamp a combined 10x tonight for all I know....but I don't see how that isn't the exception rather than the norm by what has happened so far this year.

    DAL/STL u5 +130

    Talk about begging for over money, setting this total at just 5 when STL has totaled 7, 7 and 9 combined goals in their first 3 games, and DAL is coming off a 10 goal combined effort last night. Last night's DAL game was deceiving though, imo, because there were 10 goals, on just 47 combined SOG. Not too often the puck is going to go in the net every 4.7 attempts in a game.

    More importantly, DAL allowed just 19 SOG the whole game, but the poor play of Turco allowed NSH to stay in the game. I look for DAL to continue to play solid defenively tonight against an STL team that probably isn't as good offensively as their totals to this point indicate....and for a tight low scoring affair throughout.

    2 units each
    Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 10-16-2008, 02:32 PM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
    12-23 (-25.10 units)

    Nice season I'm having so far, lol.

    Go ahead, laugh at my reasoning, but I thought i'd do some lame hockey write ups today.....

    NJD/ATL u5 +115

    NJ can't score, but they can defend. This is of course, common knowledge. 4 regulation goals in 3 games so far this year is obviously beyond terrible though, and just because they're playing the thrashers tonight, i don't see why that solves their offensive woes, seeings as how they couldn't score on the NYI either, who just got done giving up 7 to BUF.

    Plus, I don't think the ATL defense is as bad as people are making it out to be. I think the 4 they gave up vs WSH was inflated because the Crapitals were playing catch up the whole game. Then they gave 2 to FLA (in reg) and 4 to MIN, but 3 of those were in the 3rd period. So take away a team playing catch up and one poor period vs MIN, and the ATL defense has been not so bad.

    So putting what I see as a half decent ATL defense up against an NJ offense who is clueless, and has to be by far the worst one they have faced to this point, I can easily see a defensive struggle in this game, with it being very hard to see either one of these teams getting to 4 goals tonight in regulation, really....which other than 3-3 or an empty netter at 3-2 are the only ways I can lose this.

    For + money, I'll give it a whirl....

    b]

    stif- GL!...i take your NJD under writeup is kind of shot at what i had posted when you talk about ATL D not being as bad "as peole are saying". which is fine. I will tell you this, there is nothing great about an ATL D that is surrrendering 35 SOG/game and has coughed up 11 goals in 3 games. Also sometimes you have to look inside the numbers at scoring chances and SOG. I honestly don't understand how you pick and choose which goals were OK and which ones weren't...lol. A goal is a goal. You got scored on plain and simple. Who knows, maybe you're right, but NJD have been generating plenty of chances the last 2 games and both PIT nad NYR are both top 8 teams in GAA so far this season, so being shut down by a tough rangers team and a tough penguins team defensively is no shame. Not like they didn't generate chances in those games. I think you have kind of a misguided read on the Devils by only looking at their goal totals for the season. My feeling is that they are playing a softer ATL D which will finally allow them to pot some of those SOG and chances which is why i took the Over2 1/2. I have no feel for the game total, though. I think it's about right at 5-6 goals in this one.

    but GL!...with it....:thumbs:
    Last edited by FlyersFan; 10-16-2008, 03:40 PM.
    I am the M'bah a'Flyers Fan !

    Comment


    • #3
      No, i certainly wouldn't take shots at people who know far more about hockey than I....although I will say that you yourself said NJ hasn't scored more than 2 goals in what? 12 of their last 13? I see your reasoning on why they might finally break the 3 goal mark tonight, but at the same time i don't see how u5 isn't the play in this one when you look at the whole picture, and what it actually takes to make the game go over 5....and that's either 3-3 in regulation, or one team getting to at least 4 in regulation. What reason do i have to believe there are going to be 6 regulation goals scored in this game? A push isn't the end of the world, and if it pushes, then fine....but asking for 6 regulation goals here seems like a stretch, which is why I played the game under.

      I also never said ATL was a good defense by any stretch, just that i think they are better than it might seem from their results. Maybe I should have worded it that way instead.

      I have no idea what you mean about some goals being ok and some not, but I assume you are referring to the recap i gave on why I think ATL is better than their results so far. If so, I think that it's obvious that if you're playing a wide open style where you have scored 7 goals, that you can expect them to play a little more careless and to give up a few more shots/goals than they normally might in a game where they can't expect to score too many and every goal is gonna count. The same holds true in football where you might play a prevent defense and a team throws for 100 or so meaningless yards on their last 2 drives when they're already down 21ish, and in baseball when a team brings in a **** reliever to close out a lopsided win when they're already ahead 9 runs going into the 8th, and he gives up a few that maybe the "studs" wouldn't have given up in a close game.

      Maybe ATL is the cure for the offensive woes of NJ and they get their 3 goals....but for me to lose this under, either NJ has to go on fire, or ATL has to contribute too....and if ATL contributes, they have a shot to win SU against a NJ team that you just can't figure on to put up 4 or 5 goals no matter who they are playing.

      I got both plays at + money, so a split will be fine by me....
      Last edited by Stifler's Mom; 10-16-2008, 04:08 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        stif- i have no opinion on the game total as i said. i was more sticking up for my play on the NJD and that they aren't as bad offensively this year as their goal totals indicate.

        GL!....:thumbs:
        I am the M'bah a'Flyers Fan !

        Comment


        • #5
          Anyone who bets an under in the NHL is a flippin idiot, LMFAO.

          These ****in things should be 6.5's and 7's @ -110. The oddsmakers are without a doubt retarded, for lack of a better term....not meaning to offend anyone of course....but these lines are flat out stupid. Every night 75%+ of the games go over and everyone cashes in.....but me :beerbang:

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
            Anyone who bets an under in the NHL is a flippin idiot, LMFAO.

            These ****in things should be 6.5's and 7's @ -110. The oddsmakers are without a doubt retarded, for lack of a better term....not meaning to offend anyone of course....but these lines are flat out stupid. Every night 75%+ of the games go over and everyone cashes in.....but me :beerbang:
            Me too. I did the Pitt-Wash gm as well and got cooked.
            Go Boilers!
            thru 4/19

            NBA '21-22 239-236-5 -28.25

            NHL '21-22 184-195-4 -32.03

            NCAAB '21-22 908-771-42 +196.07

            MLB ’21 318-302-8 +72.07

            MLB '22 39-33 +11.54

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
              Anyone who bets an under in the NHL is a flippin idiot, LMFAO.

              These ****in things should be 6.5's and 7's @ -110. The oddsmakers are without a doubt retarded, for lack of a better term....not meaning to offend anyone of course....but these lines are flat out stupid. Every night 75%+ of the games go over and everyone cashes in.....but me :beerbang:
              Scoring is WAY up this year and the average goals per game before tonight was right around 6. The books will adjust eventually.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
                Anyone who bets an under in the NHL is a flippin idiot, LMFAO.

                These ****in things should be 6.5's and 7's @ -110. The oddsmakers are without a doubt retarded, for lack of a better term....not meaning to offend anyone of course....but these lines are flat out stupid. Every night 75%+ of the games go over and everyone cashes in.....but me :beerbang:
                I don't get it either...

                The pre-rule changes it was 4.5 and 5.5... After rule changes it went to 5.5 and 6.5 but nothing has really changed! Why it is 5 and 5.5 now?!?!?! Overs are hitting like crazy!
                NCAA 9-7 -1.0 Units
                NFL 5-1 +4.9 Units
                Loaded Dice - Upon killing a unit, Twisted Fate rolls his 'lucky' dice receiving anywhere between 1 and 6 bonus gold.

                Comment


                • #9
                  LOL, i'll look to play overs tonight (already put in the over in the CAL/EDM game) and now all the damn unders will come in :bang:

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
                    LOL, i'll look to play overs tonight (already put in the over in the CAL/EDM game) and now all the damn unders will come in :bang:
                    Love the Over in Calgary... :thumbs:

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