Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[mcgrathwins]

NHL

I am going to stay away from the Colorado game but best of luck with it. I think the lock of the night is St louis over Min. Lets face it St Louis is way better than Min. Pitt should be a lock too. I like St louis -1.5 parlayed with pitt -1.5 . Now thats a lock. GOOD LUCK:beerbang:

[TommyGold]

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is in a 6 wins streak. Why end it today? I don't have much to explain this pick. The Penguins are playing well and their only absence will be Fleury. However, his impact on the team is not so strong, which give us few or no doubts about the Penguins' performance. Pittsburgh is well known by their offensive line. They can easily score and they shot a lot.

Florida is not a reliable team. After the horrible display by Clemmenson last game, allowing 2 goals in the first minutes at home, Vokoun had troubles too, and the Panthers ended losing 5-2. They are playing badly in their defense, allowing almost 4 goals per game. And even their offensive has moods.

So for me, this is a simple game to analyse. A team that has big troubles defending will face the Penguins and the bookies give us a PL over the pair? We can't let this one pass! The differences between both rosters, the way they are playing, and the momentum of both team are astounding!


Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes, PIT PL -1.5 +155 (2.55) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators

This season Boston are trying to show us how to bet on them. It's a funny trend, because in a 9 games, they cannot make 2 wins or losses in a row. So, I suspect that there will be many bettors today betting on Boston just because they lost the last one. However, in this world of probabilities they might be wrong. They think that will be much more probable a win for the Bruins because of the trend. However, it's a false thinking. The probabilities are in favor to end this trend and is like a linear equation. If they delay to make 2 in a row the bigger will the probabilities for to that happen. So, after 9 games I think that the probability, only statistically speaking, will be in favou of the Senators, and for those that only bet on sports due to probabilities, these will be bigger today.

In their last game, only 2 days ago in Philadelphia, I saw Boston playing a Little bit. They are playing horrible, they are not anymore that cohesive team that we knew from last year. Boston is losing their games against teams that got the momentum and are playing well. They have individual values, but they are not producing the expected hockey. Savard, the top scorer, will be out and he is one of the few players in the team still showing how to play the game.

Ottawa, despite the last loss against a team that is rising from the dead, is playing well. The Senators are not a team that is afraid of "big team names" and they fight 'till the end on every game. They are also a good team, with talented players that make the difference, specially Alfredsson, who can lead them.

Thus, I think this could be a good clash between a team that is playing poorly, allowing the adversaries to play too much, and a team that is playing well. With the Senators players making the difference instead of the Bruins players, we have an edge on defense and offense on our side, and Ottawa should win this one. However, I prefer to play this on the ML, because I expect some improvement from the Bruins from their last game, however it will not be enough to give them the win. Overall, this is the line offering the best value for me.


Pick: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes, OTT ML -120 (1.83) SBOBET

[TommyGold]

New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens

Today we will have a game where the key for the victory will not be the stats of this season. Montreal has a good roster, however they delayed to show it. After wins on their first 2 games this season, they struggled a lot being defeated 5 times in a row. Fortunately for them when the whistle of disgrace played, they returned to victories and arrive to this game with 2 straight wins.

In the other side, we will have a Rangers team facing their worst moment of this season so far. After starting with a loss, they had 7 straight wins and were one of the hottest teams in the league, playing well and scoring a lot. But... as much as you climb, bigger will be the fall. And Rangers are coming from 2 home defeats, showing big problems on defense.

Both teams are talented and have players that can make the difference. It's true that Montreal has been unrecognized this season, but has appeared on last game. Rangers were playing well, showing everyone their offensive power, and that they can beat everybody.

However for me, the spot to explore is this: Rangers lost their momentum, coming from 2 home losses, where they show mental weakness. A non-strong mental team will always struggle in Montreal. And I think that we will have here a non-confident Rangers.
Montreal is finally starting to show their game. They are a smart team and they can explore this non physical part of the game to win it. They need to continue with their wins and facing a team with a "bad momentum", but second on the Eastern Conference, can be a good boost. So, we cannot pass on this home dog.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, MON 3Way +170 (2.70) NordicBet

[TommyGold]

2009.10.23 results:

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI) (5-4: WIN)

2009.10.23 finished with a 1-1 and +0.45 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 14-24 (-4.92 units lost/38 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes - The Capitals are in a good scoring mood and the Islanders have some motivation to score some goals too, they are a young team, they chase their losses, which will be a big mistake for them, allowing the Capitals to score a few more goals.

Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes - The Flyers play at home, against a Florida team which played in Pittsburgh against the title holders, being in the lead up to the 3 minutes before the last whistle, the Panthers gave everything they've got against the Penguins, they are exhausted and therefore, they shouldn't be at their best tonight. Philadelphia is one of those teams that if you allow them to have some room to play, to maneuver inside your lines, they have a very good ability to score, on that matter, Richards and Carter are lethal goalscorers.

Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes - Colorado is playing quite well, they are a solide team and they have shown good gameplans so far. I understand why they are home underdogs, it is a B2B game against the vice-champions, (Colorado is 1-0 with 0 days rest, it is not much to show, but it seems that they aren't that bad yet on this kind of scenario), but Detroit's hockey display is actually very bad and I don't see any value on them right now. On their previous encounter, Colorado went to Detroit and defeated the Red Winds, so why not another win for Colorado tonight?

If you can get CAR ML +130, go ahead, otherwise, I'll pass on them. :)

[TommyGold]

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek - The youth of the Islanders will not be enough against a rising Canadiens team, with enough experience and having good results lately. They have the best team and they should show it tonight.

[TommyGold]

2009.10.24 results:

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (3-4: LOSS)
New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker Paddy Power DONE (5-4: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (2-3: LOSS)
Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (5-1: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes bet365 DONE (3-1: WIN)


2009.10.24 finished with a 2-3 and -0,25 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-27 (-5.17 units lost/43 units risked)

[TommyGold]

2009.10.26 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek (3-2: LOSS)

2009.10.26 finished with a 0-1 and -1 unit lost/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-28 (-6.17 units lost/44 units risked)

[TommyGold]

I am going to stay away from the Colorado game but best of luck with it. (...) GOOD LUCK:beerbang:

Many thanks, mcgrathwins! :thumbs:

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers

Today we will have a match between two different teams, but with one common problem. There are a lot of injuries in both sides. Colorado will start with Anderson, so far the best goaltender in NHL. We can expect him to slow down with his performance, however, I don't expect it today. Colorado can be described as a road team. They are 4-1 in regular time and 0-2 on SO. If we check, they won at regular time in Boston, Detroit, and so on. Even at home, they are 4-0 in 4 games. So, what can we say about this team? One of the best so far. And why? Because all the players in the roster are making their part. And this will be a key today, where they have few men down, as Edmonton.

Khabibulin will be Edmonton's goalie. I like him, however I think that he still have to get more game time with the Oilers jersey to get his best game. They are good at home with 5-1 and that's why they are favourite. Yet their victories were against teams with some problems and they are terrible on the road.

I see all the value on Colorado. A team that can cover any absent player as all the roster is playing well. A team that is playing pretty well at road too. A team with big advantage at defense. A team with confidence and secure of what they can do, like winning this game. Edmonton can play pretty well too at home, however they didn't proved nothing yet and the Oilers come from 3 away losses, where they played a poor hockey. So, we can't let this one pass.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks

Since they lost D. Sedin, the Canucks have changed the way they play, with 5 unders in a row. They are playing thoughtfully, lurking for an opportunity to score. With 3 wins in a row and knowing that they best game has been the defense, as they had decreased their offensive power, they will do what they can to face the desperate Red Wings. With Luongo returning for their best games and the will to win this one, they will be smart enough to make their best game, playing quietly and waiting for an opportunity.

The Red Wings come from 3 straight losses. They are facing problems, as their game is based on offensive and they are not producing the expected. They are struggling on every game they play away from home and they need to bounce back from this bad moment. This team have very experienced players and I expect them to play with their intelligence. They can't go to this game as they did when they faced the Sabres and got a blowout loss. Osgood will start today and we can expect today a good performance, as the Canucks are not at their best on offense.

So, I expect a very tactic game, and this two teams are getting more unders than overs lately, which is a trend I believe will continue tonight.


Pick: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes

We can trust in the Hurricanes playing at home where they've got their two wins this season. They lost two other games, one against the Flyers in a hot streak, the other one against the title holders. After a bad display on the road with a 0-4 loss and 6 straight losses, it is up to Carolina to take this game to change the course of things, thanks to their perseverance.

The Hurricanes will face today a team that as surpassed all expectations on the last season and this year we are a little bit unable were to put it or label it against their competition, because they have been hard to read. They seem to be determined to fight for the playoffs, however, after two big games in Sweden, they have a 2-5 losing record, having still something to prove.

I expect a confident team that can get the win, that needs to win this game and I think they can deal with this pressure. On the other hand, there is a team that is not reliable, still trying to find out their identity.


Pick: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker; CAR 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) NordicBet, Expekt, Betsson

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus has been brilliant at home, with a 3-0 winning record. They base their game on defense, a very tight game, which makes them a very hard team to play against. In Phoenix, they were able to deliver the Coyotes their first home loss, by 2-0. Today, they host the Coyotes and the home crowd will be a nice edge for the Blue Jackets.

Phoenix was pointed as one of the weakest teams in the league, yet they have been able to surprise this early season, having won on the road against the current champions. Eventually then came the losses, and also some victories in between, but those were mostly in OT, and they are now in a 0-2 losing streak.

I expekt the Blue Jackets at their normal behavior, taking over and controling the game, against one the weakest teams in the NHL, that after a nice start, are lowering their performance level and showing what was expected for this year.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.27 results:

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (0-3: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (4-5: LOSS)

2009.10.27 finished with a 1-1 and +0,15 unit2 won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 17-29 (-6.02 units lost/46 units risked)