Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames

Tonight we will pick a side just because of the odds value. The disregard from the bookies about Colorado performance, is like saying that there is a lot of value on them. I know that some day they have to stop to crush bookie's wallets. They keep considering the Avalanche as dogs, but they just keep giving money to those that believed in them. So, we can't stop now. Tonight we will go with Colorado as big dogs, we have to take the benefits of their "momentum" as long as we can.

About the game, it will be a hard game, Calgary is playing well, with many players impressing on the offense. So far, they lost at home only to Dallas. So, if they can lose with a team that hasn't found yet their game, why not take this shot? Colorado is a cohesive tea, and now combine a good defense with good offense.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks

San Jose will play at home after 6 road games. They we're not bad at all and I think that it was a positive road trip. They are starting to "acquire their engine" and today, returning to play at home, I think the Kings will suffer because of it. They have a team better than last year, Heatley can make the difference easily.

LA Kings is playing quite well. However, I can see a spot here: Kings lost on the road against strong opponents. Sharks won most of their games by 2 or more goals. Despite the moment of the Kings, i think the Sharks will not miss this opportunity to show their supporters that they are a contenders to Stanley Cup, despite this early part of the season.


Pick: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.28 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker (2-3: WIN)
Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (2-1: LOSS)

2009.10.28 finished with a 1-3 and -1,35 units won/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 18-32 (-7,37 units lost/50 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa will host today the team that gave them the worst loss, 7-1. So, this game will have a "revenge" factor. Tampa Bay lost at Ottawa and now they host them, so this game will be different for sure. Tampa Bay is a "special team". They can be weak, but they can do pretty things at home, as we saw a few days ago when they won 5-2 against the Sharks.

The Senators are playing well making so far a good season. The only losses they have this season, in Regulation Time, were against the Rangers and the Penguins. If Senators plays against a team on the road with the level of Tampa team, I would go with Senators without doubt.

However, this Tampa Bay is a special team at home. They have talented players, but the team doesn't show their maximum potential on the road, they usually only show their talent at home. Therefore I see an opportunity here, Tampa Bay wants revenge for sure, and if they are in that mode at home... they can blowout anyone.


Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

A week ago, Atlanta wasn't able to stop Washington. Now, they will face them again. The difference for this game, is just one. Kovalchuk. The Trashers star suffered an injury and will miss action for a few weeks. He was the key in this last match up, scoring 2 goals. Now, we will be out, increasing the gap between these two teams.

The Capitals faced some problems, losing 4 in a row, but now they are with 5 straight wins. They've got confidence, and Semin helped to make the difference. Today, they know they can crush Atlanta, a team they beat only by one goal. With the knowlegde about Kovalchuk miss, they will not tolerate a non-winning game.

The Trashers have done a good season so far for them. They are with 0-2 losing record on their last 2 home games, however, it were against the Capitals and the Sharks. They fight every game and try to keep the games close, seeking their opportunities.

The key for this match, will be the injury of Kovalchuk. He was and still is the best player of the Trashers, the one that can help a lot his team to keep games close. With his absence, I think that Atlanta will struggle a lot in next few games, specially against a team with so much offensive power as the Capitals.


Pick: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues

This a B2B game for both teams. St. Louis won easily yesterday at Carolina by 5-2 and they return home today. The Blues have already faced Phoenix on the road and they lost 3-2 on OT. When they won, they do it with a great lead and I think that they want to snap this L-W-L-W record on their last games and Phoenix is the right team for the Blues to score another win.

On the other hand, the Coyotes will end today their road trip and yesterday they only won in the end of the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, with two goals in power play, and that was a tiring game. Like I stated yesterday, this Phoenix team despite having a nice start, they aren't a top team and I expect a flat spot for them on this game, their third straight on the road and I remember that of their last 5 wins, 3 were on OT/SO and I expect that yesterday game will take a toll on them.


Pick: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings

In this match up we have two teams with the same numbers, but in a different order: LA Kings is 4-1 at home, Vancouver is 1-4 away. So, we can get an easy conclusion. The first are good at home so far, the others still have to find how to face road games.

Los Angeles is making an impressive season so far. At home they only lost their first game of the season. Even with that game, they have 5.2 goals scored at home. Impressive for a team that started the season with a label saying "no playoff contenders".

Vancouver lost the last game at home against the Detroit Red Wings, result of an awful third period. In their road games, they usually struggle a lot, allowing 3.40 goals per game, and scoring only 2. Thus this itself gives us almost an average difference of a puck line.

Today Raycroft will start for the Canucks, something that gives me no confidence on their defense. Luong allowed 5 goals against the Red Wings, but was playing pretty well, and those 5 goals were a consequence of a bad team game. Quick will start for the Kings and so far, he has been one of the keys of the success path of his team.

For this game, I can understand why the Kings are a little bit the favorites, since they are on a B2B game. It can be hard, but all their games have been hard, as they are a team to kill. Their home advantage this season seems something big, and the confidence of the team should be enough to face a team with lots of injuries, struggles a lot away, and comes from a bad loss.


Pick: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) The Greek



A believe this game already started (this Daylight Saving Time hiatus is "killing" me), if that is the case, my apologies:

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers

Now, there is the right moment to take Oilers. There are few reasons to take this one. First of all, we've got here a huge odds value. The home dog is 5-2-0-1 at home. The last game was at home and a defeat after a 2 road trip with no wins. So, they've got to take this game seriously, specially after zero goals scored in the last 2 games. And I believe this team can turn things around. It is not the kind of team to letdown their arms. After the last game loss, they will give their supporters a good game. I think the fact that Khabibulin will be the goaltender, will help the team, as he alternates his performances between bad and good ones. And today, it's a day for a good performance, like we has done so long this season, at home. At home, Edmonton is more powerful at offense, but their advantage is in making difficult to opponents to score.

Detroit is coming from a win, an away win! 5-4 at Vancouver, for a team that is disappointing every one, is a good win. However, this team is not the first good win they've got, but after those wins they usually get back to a poor game. Maybe the fact that they have a old roster, can explain it. They give all they can in one game and need a week to recovery (pretty bad :evil:). Yet, the truth is that we can explain this team: every time we believe that they will start their engines and start to play good hockey and win games, they come and prove us that we were wrong. The bigger problem is they can't defend when playing away. Even on their only win on the road on their last game, they allowed 4 goals to Vancouver. To help it, they will put their backup goalie in the nets, Howard. They expect that he will give good luck, however I think this will be a mistake, as this team needs a strong goalie, mentally speaking.


Pick: Edmonton Oilers ML +146 (2.46) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.10.29 results:

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-4: LOSS)
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-2: WIN)
Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (0-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +195 (2.95) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)

2009.10.29 finished with a 1-3 and -2,09 units lost/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 19-35 (-9,46 units lost/54 units risked)



For today, I've already 2 picks, will see if I can unearth anything else in the next hour:

Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker; ANA 3Way +105 (2.05) Expekt, NordicBet

Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.10.30 results:

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (7-2: WIN)
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (3-1: WIN)

2009.10.30 finished with a 2-0 and +1,86 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 21-35 (-7,6 units lost/56 units risked)



For today, 2009.10.31, I've 2 early picks:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers

In this game, we will have a team in a "letdown spot". Carolina comes from a 7 losses in a row cold streak. Between that losses they tried to turn things around, fighting with all they've got, but without any luck, losing those in OT. This team needs a spot to turn things around and that spot will be difficult to appear outside from a home game, against a team with a poor road record. So, tonight, we will have a no confident team. In road games, they are allowing 4.17 goals per game. A huge problem against teams with a good offensive record. And in the other end, they score only few more than 2 goals per game.

Philadelphia will have here an opportunity to give a blowout win and to show to everyone that they are a strong contender. Despite the last 2 losses they are not without confidence. That losses were against the biggest contenders to the Stanley's Cup. They are aware of their capabilities, and how good they can be specially against teams that gives them room to their offensive.

So, today I expect the Flyers to return to blowout wins. They are a team that can do it easily, the game just has to go under their control. Carolina is a breakdown team right now, hoping for better days and with no confidence for this game. Their road records shows their fragility as visitors.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker



Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators

Atlanta is a hard team to beat, that's the reality. However, despite their last result, that can be considered good for what i said, it do not shows the latest reality. They lost only by one goal, but they were losing by 3 almost all the game.

Ottawa lost their last 2 games at home and for this team, with a strong home factor, this is something not normal. The value on this game will be that the Thrashers are not in their best "mode", as they come from a 4 losses in a row cold streak. With their best player out, they will have to wait for a better game to turn it around as the Senators are a strong team, particulary at home.


Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens

Toronto finally got their first win on this road trip. 3 games ago they won on the road on Anaheim against the Ducks, starting to get their confidence back. However in the next 2 games, they lost in OT, thus they will be on this game with 2 lost games in a row. It's hard to talk about the Maple Leafs, everything seems to fail. First, they score few goals, allowing too much goals in return. Then they won, but they failed in keeping the wins flowing, losing 2 games after the only win in this season, in OT.

Montreal, had also problems in this start of the season. They have a good roster, but the results are late to come. Yet, before losing the last 2 games on the road, they've got 4 home wins. It was the turning point of the season, at least it seems, as they have for the first time this season a positive record. Curious is the fact that in those 4 wins, 3 were on OT.

So for this game, a canadian derby, it will be very important to have confidence. Montreal has it, they got lucky in last home games, their roster is way more experienced. Toronto lost to hold their "momentum" after their first win and they are without luck. So, I can't see Toronto with capability to discuss this game, even if it is a derby.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.31 results:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (6-1: WIN)
Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-3: LOSS)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-4: LOSS)

2009.10.31 finished with a 1-2 and -0,3 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 22-37 (-7,9 units lost/59 units risked)

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes

I will recapitulate what i said yesterday :

"In this game, we will have a team in a 'letdown spot'. Carolina comes from a 7 losses in a row cold streak. Between that losses they tried to turn things around, fighting with all they've got, but without any luck, losing those in OT. This team needs a spot to turn things around and that spot will be difficult to appear outside from a home game, against a team with a poor road record. So, tonight, we will have a no confident team. In road games, they are allowing 4.17 goals per game. A huge problem against teams with a good offensive record. And in the other end, they score only few more than 2 goals per game."

So, yesterday we went on a blowout loss for Carolina, and I think that I'm able to say that I read well this team, as they lost 1-6. With this thoughts, I think I can find a huge spot today as well.

Carolina is in a "letdown spot". No confidence, with 8 losses in a row, with no luck, and with even with more poor statistics than yesterday thanks to another poor performance. At home, they got their only 2 season wins (1 win on OT on road as well) in regular time. However, those wins were on the early games of the season, and now while there were on this long 'road trip', they lost the 2 last home games as well.

San Jose is an eternal contender to the Stanley's Cup, had a low start of the season, with a 3-4 record. But since that bad start, they got their engines on, and are with a 6-1 winning record, arriving to this game with 4 wins in a row. The last 2 at home, they won the first match in a hard game and unexpectedly against the LA Kings. But before that, they got a 6 road games, starting in Washington with a defeat, but then started their real season, crushing the Rangers 7-3 and defeating the Flyers 4-1, Atlanta 4-3 and the Islanders 4-1... Their only loss was agaisnt Tampa Bay on the road, where no one wins if their players are in a good day. Thus, I think that they are already showing their capabilities and their engines are well tuned. They have improved their defense as their offense as well.

For this match up, we will have a B2B game for Carolina. For this team with no confidence, this can be a sacrilege. Even playing at home, they have to wait for a team with a poor record, without or with very low morale and thinking that they can win only because the bad period of the Hurricanes. But this is not the case, the Sharks are a powerful team, finally in the right road and with a positive record. They have rested for one day, after winning against one of the sensations of the season, Colorado. Therefore, they get on this match with confidence, knowing what to expect from their opponents and with all the possibilities to play their game as they want to, so we can have an easy win by 2 or more goals.


Pick: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek

[TommyGold]

2009.11.01 results:

San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-5: WIN)

2009.11.01 finished with a 1-0 and +2.1 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 23-37 (-5.8 units lost/60 units risked)

[TommyGold]

2009.11.01 results:

San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-5: WIN)

2009.11.01 finished with a 1-0 and +2.1 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 23-37 (-5.8 units lost/60 units risked)



For today, I've only this pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers

With Smith in the nets and a 4.5 conceeded goals average record when playing on the road, we have here a spot to take some advantage. This seems easy. However, this is just a stat. So, I will continue with some explanation about Tampa Bay, as we won the last 2 reads i've done about this team.

The Lightning are a special team with extra-confidence when they play at home. But today they will play on the road. In 4 games, they've got 3 regular time losses and one loss in OT. The last two road games, they lost 1-7 and 1-4. Before those 2 games, they won 2 at home, so we can't excuse them with things like "they weren't in their best form". They had also their roster without injuries.

What can I say about this? They are very weak on the road, with huge problems on the nets, particularly when Smith is their goaltender. It's true that they have very talented players in their first line, but they've got some kind of syndrome, as they usually play bad on the road. Moons' players. Moody players.

Philadelphia after a good start lowered their performance until they've got that 6 days rest. Since then, they only lost to Sharks and Capitals, but the loss against San Jose was at home. They've scored more than 3.80 goals per game at home, as they are a very offensive team that loves to give good shows and in my opinion, the Flyers are a team that can beat anyone at home.

Therefore, what can we think about this game? Tampa Bay will attempt to approach this game with a lot of cautions, as they know how bad they are on the road and how much they need St Louis, Lecavallier and so on to play well. Yet, these players can't produce enough on the road and more than that, these players need confidence from the team to play well. That trust will not travel with the team, as they are coming from a bad loss at home, after the draw with Devils for one goal.

In the other side, the Flyers gave a blowout win last game, winning 6-1 at home against a lousy Hurricanes team. But if we watch the last home games, they gave another blowout win against Florida, and losing in RT and won in OT with teams with a even away record. So, we can see that Philadelphia takes advantage from teams that approach the games with some fears. In their home field, they dictate the law and another blowout victory for the Flyers seems probable.


Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek