Sony Open in Hawaii

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (1pt)

John Riegger to beat Jimmy Walker -120 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
Riegger had a 12-7 h2h 1st round lead over Walker on the Nationwide Tour last year and had played in this event the previous 5 years, making the cut every time. Walker's sole appearance in 2006 started with a 80 and a missed cut

Jeff Overton to beat Sean O'Hair +115 @ Unibet WON by 1
Worth backing Overton at these odds - 24th on his debut last year and finished the season well, whereas O'Hair has finished 69th and mc in this event

George McNeill to beat Dean Wilson -115 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
For someone who was born in Hawaii, Wilson's record in this event is extremely poor: 4/6 missed cuts, 76th and 23rd (2002). McNeill was 13th here last year and showed enough last week to warrant support here

Jerry Kelly to beat Steve Flesch -130 @ Five Dimes WON by 5
A former winner (2002) with five top-15 finishes in the last six years, Kelly should beat Flesch who has missed the cut in two of his last three appearances here

Charles Howell to beat Brett Wetterich -148 @ Pinnacle LOST by 1
Expecting a big week from Howell who improved with every round last week and has three top-5 finishes in the last six years; over the same period Wetterich has missed the cut in all three attempts

Charles Howell to beat Kenny Perry -150 @ Five Dimes WON by 1
With a best finish of 50th in his last four visits and his best days seemingly behind him, I just don't see this week being the week that Perry's game returns to its former level

Nathan Green to beat Bill Haas -143 @ Unibet WON by 6
Also liking Green's chances for a top-10 finish here. He's been playing well in Australia and Stuart Appleby has shown how useful that can be at the start of the season. Plus, Haas has finished ahead of Green in only one round during the last two years here

[Stanley]

4th round plays (1pt)

K.J. Choi to beat Tim Wilkinson -188 @ Sportingbet WON by 7
Always difficult to follow up such a low round and it should be too much for Wilkinson who managed to do just once in his Nationwide Tour career. Choi is an excellent front runner and will force Wilkinson to take chances to close the gap and that rarely works

K.J. Choi to beat Chad Campbell -105 @ Pinnacle WON by 2
In each of the last EIGHT times that Choi has held the lead heading into the 4th round, he has won the tournament. On the PGA Tour, he is four out of four with final round scores of 67, 68, 66 and 67. Campbell has broken 70 just once in the six occasions over the last two years that he has entered the final round between 5 and 7 shots behind the leader, averaging 71.67 and never moving up the leaderboard

Rory Sabbatini to beat Jay Williamson -138 @ Sportingbet WON by 7
Sabbatini, by contrast, is much better when in contention: in the last six times he has entered the final round 4th or 5th, he has finished in the top-3 every time, winning once. Williamson hasn't been in that position on the PGA Tour since 2004 and the only time in the last three years (2007 Athens Regional Foundation Classic, Nationwide Tour) saw him fall down the leaderboard to 29th.

Rory Sabbatini to beat Stephen Ames +105 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
Opposed Ames in the final round last week as a poor final round player and lost, but will oppose him again on the same basis. It will help that he is two shots further back than Sabbatini and with very less chance of winning

Steve Stricker to beat Stephen Ames -135 @ Carib WON by 1
Stricker is one shot closer to the lead than Ames, but he is much more proven in this situation, falling out of a top-10 position in only one of eleven final round starts since 2006

Heath Slocum to beat Pat Perez -105 @ Carib LOST by 1
Perez has broken 70 just once in twelve final round starts when in the top-10 in the last three years; Slocum has done in five out of seven attempts over the same period


Overall
This week: 10-3; +6.47pts
This year: 17-14; +0.64pts