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Kevin's persistence has finally paid off and I've joined the forum :cheers:
I wasn't sure about posting my PGA Tour stuff this year because I try to snag the early value on Mondays and that means the odds are typically with the Euro books, which have all now closed their doors to American customers. And I made a loss on my picks last year as well :cry:
So, hopefully what I post on Mondays will be of some use even if most people can't get the odds.
However, because (largely for time purposes) I now concentrate on posting bets for outright (i.e. tournament winner) markets I will copy and paste the matchup plays that my guys at Tour-Tips publish. That way, there should be plenty written for each PGA Tour event and I can get the kudos if my guys post winners and I can blame them if they lose :hugegrin:
Here's my picks from earlier this evening ...
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Stewart Cink to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]
A quick look at the last three years shows that the winner of the event immediately following the U.S. Open had been 57th (2006), mc (2005) and mc (2004) in the U.S. Open. The strain of being in contention for your home Open, particularly as it is the most difficult test in golf, should be an impediment to winning the following week. If that repeats itself this year, these selections should have a very good chance. Cink missed the cut last week, but his form had been good enough to earn him three top-5 finishes in his previous five starts. And now he returns to a course on which, not only did he finish in the top-5 last year, but he was also a winner in 1997 and runner-up the following year. With Mickelson now withdrawn from this event, he is the only one of the leading players to have been rested at the weekend and that should greatly improve his chances of victory this week.
Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Perry didn't play last week and so should be even better prepared for this event ... and he certainly is physically, having lost 20 pounds in the last six months. Now, with a new belly putter and a swing tip that transformed his game at the Memorial (he finished 3rd, having been 41st at the cut), he looks a potential winner again. Given this week's schedule placing after the U.S. Open and his past achievements of six top-10 finishes on this course (including three in the last five years), his chances of victory are much better than 50/1.
Woody Austin to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
It was disappointing to see the selection, David Toms, fail to win the St Jude Championship two weeks ago, but Austin was in awesome form in the final round. He shot 62 that day to cantor to a five-shot victory. After that performance, described by his caddy as "the most impressive round of golf I've ever seen, I've never seen anybody in my life hit it like that", his missed cut last week is to be expected and is surely a blessing in disguise for this event. He will really feel that he has a good chance of winning here having played like that and especially after his performances on this course in the last three years: 1st, 9th and 5th. By any combination of current and course form, he has to be value at these odds.
BTW "e.w." means "each-way". A 1pt each-way bet is a combined bet that places 0.5pts on the player to win at the quoted odds and 0.5pts on the player to finish in the top-five (or six if stated) at 1/4 the win odds. I get asked that question many times each season ;)
I wasn't sure about posting my PGA Tour stuff this year because I try to snag the early value on Mondays and that means the odds are typically with the Euro books, which have all now closed their doors to American customers. And I made a loss on my picks last year as well :cry:
So, hopefully what I post on Mondays will be of some use even if most people can't get the odds.
However, because (largely for time purposes) I now concentrate on posting bets for outright (i.e. tournament winner) markets I will copy and paste the matchup plays that my guys at Tour-Tips publish. That way, there should be plenty written for each PGA Tour event and I can get the kudos if my guys post winners and I can blame them if they lose :hugegrin:
Here's my picks from earlier this evening ...
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Stewart Cink to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Boyle Sports [6 places]
A quick look at the last three years shows that the winner of the event immediately following the U.S. Open had been 57th (2006), mc (2005) and mc (2004) in the U.S. Open. The strain of being in contention for your home Open, particularly as it is the most difficult test in golf, should be an impediment to winning the following week. If that repeats itself this year, these selections should have a very good chance. Cink missed the cut last week, but his form had been good enough to earn him three top-5 finishes in his previous five starts. And now he returns to a course on which, not only did he finish in the top-5 last year, but he was also a winner in 1997 and runner-up the following year. With Mickelson now withdrawn from this event, he is the only one of the leading players to have been rested at the weekend and that should greatly improve his chances of victory this week.
Kenny Perry to win 50/1 e.w. @ Boyle Sports [6 places]
Perry didn't play last week and so should be even better prepared for this event ... and he certainly is physically, having lost 20 pounds in the last six months. Now, with a new belly putter and a swing tip that transformed his game at the Memorial (he finished 3rd, having been 41st at the cut), he looks a potential winner again. Given this week's schedule placing after the U.S. Open and his past achievements of six top-10 finishes on this course (including three in the last five years), his chances of victory are much better than 50/1.
Woody Austin to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
It was disappointing to see the selection, David Toms, fail to win the St Jude Championship two weeks ago, but Austin was in awesome form in the final round. He shot 62 that day to cantor to a five-shot victory. After that performance, described by his caddy as "the most impressive round of golf I've ever seen, I've never seen anybody in my life hit it like that", his missed cut last week is to be expected and is surely a blessing in disguise for this event. He will really feel that he has a good chance of winning here having played like that and especially after his performances on this course in the last three years: 1st, 9th and 5th. By any combination of current and course form, he has to be value at these odds.
BTW "e.w." means "each-way". A 1pt each-way bet is a combined bet that places 0.5pts on the player to win at the quoted odds and 0.5pts on the player to finish in the top-five (or six if stated) at 1/4 the win odds. I get asked that question many times each season ;)
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