On The January 2010 NCAAW Hardwood

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/11 Recap:

02-01-00 67% +80 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Another profitable night although I am disappointed with the ****ty effort of Morgan State who made my pick look awful! Clemson & Maryland were easy wire to wire winners.

I can't say I am surprised the Lady Terps won outright since they were the better team. I was glad they were unranked as that gave extra value. If they did not turn it over so much, they would have won by double digits. If 5D puts up a small line on the rematch, I will probably be all over the Lady Terps.

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Season:

21-15-01 58% +340 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 16-13-01 55% +40

[EveryGamblersDream]

Florida +22 -120

Purdue +7.5 -120

Vanderbilt +2 -120

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/14 Recap:

02-01-00 67% +80 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Another profitable night although I am disappointed with the ****ty effort of the Lady Boilermakers. 33 turnovers for the entire game with at least a minimum of 70% of them being unforced.

They were turning the ball over on initial outlet passes with no pressure in the back court. Quite frankly they got smoked in the fashion I expected Notre Dame to have beat them earlier this month.

Florida & Vanderbilt were easy no brainer winners. I knew Florida would give them a really strong game but to blow what should have been an outright win was a bit of a shock. I knew they were starting to get it as a team but did not think they were up to almost beating the Lady Vols just yet.

Unfortunately the books might start catching up with them based on the last few games. Now might be the time to bail, but I'll see.

Vanderbilt getting points at home was preposterous. For those who follow the men's game know how that gym has gotten the best of many good teams over the years. The case is no different for the women. They were dogs just because Georgia was undefeated but I won't complain about a ridiculously horrible line.

I feel like I am in the groove & look to continue that heading into the meat of conference play.

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Season:

23-16-01 59% +420 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 18-14-01 56% +120

[EveryGamblersDream]

Manhattan +8 -120 (4:30 PM EST start)

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Saturday:

Notre Dame +20.5 -120

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/15 Recap:

00-01-00 0% -120 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

First losing day/might in a few. Manhattan ran into a buzzsaw especially in the 1st H where Loyola could not miss. The lead was big & too much to overcome. They made some runs but could not sustain them as Loyola would stretch it right back out.

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Season:

23-17-01 58% +300 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 18-15-01 55% 0

[EveryGamblersDream]

Texas Tech +4 -120

St. Bonaventure +7.5 -120

Colorado +3 -120

Oregon State +12.5 -120

Notre Dame +2000
o138.5 Notre Dame-Connecticut -120
Notre Dame +12.5 1st H -115
o65 Notre Dame-Connecticut 1st H -115
Notre Dame +7 1st 10mins 1st H -115
o32 Notre Dame-Connecticut 1st 10mins 1st H -115
Notre Dame +650 1st 10mins 1st H

[EveryGamblersDream]

Purdue -3.5 -120

Georgia Tech -1 -120

Indiana +21 -120 (Big 10 GOTY)

Florida +13.5 -120

Baylor PK -120

Toledo -4.5 -120

Pittsburgh +6 -120

Texas A&M -2.5 -120

Vanderbilt +19 -120

Running late so update later.

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/16 & 01/17 Recaps:

06-15-00 29% -1145 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Horrible weekend with the precedent being set with a heartbreaking loss by Texas Tech. 1 out of 10 times would a team up 2 possessions with 15 seconds left would lose & my luck it was that 1 time. 2 turnovers within 5 seconds & it ends up in another OT. A complete heartbreaking loss.

Notre Dame played one of their worst games ever under Muffy McGraw. I was extremely disappointed how they seemed intimidated by a conference foe they have given trouble too of late. This is practically (albeit they have 3 major players back they did not have for the last meeting) which gave UConn fits. I am looking forward to the rematch as I feel it will be more indicative of the game I expected.

Some tough losses on Sunday & even though it will me marked down as a losing day, I did come out ahead quite a bit as I & few others went to town on the Big 10 GOTY which was a wire to wire cover.

Florida is still a darling for me as the linesmakers have no clue what to do with them. Keep giving me double digits with them in the conference & watch me clean up.

I had a rare Big 12 road favorite on my card & it went down. They will get them back in the rematch, they are by far the better team. I got burned there but I could not back Oklahoma at that short a #.

Enough about this crappy weekend, time to get back to business!


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Season:

29-32-01 48% -845 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 24-30-01 44% -1145

[EveryGamblersDream]

Virginia -2 -120

Connecticut -15.5 -115
o125 Connecticut-Duke -115
Connecticut -1750

I would never normally suggest playing such a heavy ML fvorite. However I am not going to kid you into thinking Duke can beat this team. I have a list of the teams I truly feel can beat UConn this year or very well come close to doing so (they are not invincible regardless of what people try to sell), & Duke is nowhere to be found on the list.

I am not saying Duke does not have the talent or athleticisim to compete. I just don't feel they have the coaching in place to do so. I respect what JP has done as a coach but her philosophy has always been about defense & her matchup zone. While it worked with a lot of success at Michigan State, they eventually did get punked out when facing teams equally or more athetic player & tempo wise.

Unless they shoot lights out (at minimum 50-55%), they will not win this game. Their best chance is to shoot lights out & keep the score low, two things they won't do. The best chance to beat UConn is man to man & playing to their tempo with minimum mistakes.

This is where NC fails because they actually play with more tempo than the Huskies but they also turn the ball over regularly. They are about playing non-stop street ball with 100+ possessions a game.

Regardless, the style of this game does not suit Duke at all realistically & unless UConn throws up a clunker & Duke plays lights out, they will NOT win this game. This is much as a definite as death & taxes.

The fact this # is so low is comical at best considering Duke is not even better than the other teams the Huskies have faced & have had lines posted for. When they stepped it up against better teams, they got smoked outside of Ohio State where her familiarity with their team & system helped along with a ridiculous shooting performance. Put this way, Duke does not belong in the Top 10 period!

[EveryGamblersDream]

Virginia -2 -120

Connecticut -15.5 -115
o125 Connecticut-Duke -115
Connecticut -1750

I would never normally suggest playing such a heavy ML fvorite. However I am not going to kid you into thinking Duke can beat this team. I have a list of the teams I truly feel can beat UConn this year or very well come close to doing so (they are not invincible regardless of what people try to sell), & Duke is nowhere to be found on the list.

I am not saying Duke does not have the talent or athleticisim to compete. I just don't feel they have the coaching in place to do so. I respect what JP has done as a coach but her philosophy has always been about defense & her matchup zone. While it worked with a lot of success at Michigan State, they eventually did get punked out when facing teams equally or more athetic player & tempo wise.

Unless they shoot lights out (at minimum 50-55%), they will not win this game. Their best chance is to shoot lights out & keep the score low, two things they won't do. The best chance to beat UConn is man to man & playing to their tempo with minimum mistakes.

This is where NC fails because they actually play with more tempo than the Huskies but they also turn the ball over regularly. They are about playing non-stop street ball with 100+ possessions a game.

Regardless, the style of this game does not suit Duke at all realistically & unless UConn throws up a clunker & Duke plays lights out, they will NOT win this game. This is much as a definite as death & taxes.

The fact this # is so low is comical at best considering Duke is not even better than the other teams the Huskies have faced & have had lines posted for. When they stepped it up against better teams, they got smoked outside of Ohio State where her familiarity with their team & system helped along with a ridiculous shooting performance. Put this way, Duke does not belong in the Top 10 period!

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/18 Recap:

04-00-00 100% +400 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

A good way to start off the week with what were 2 easy games to dissect. As I stated before hand, Duke losing that was a certainty. I give them credit for showcasing a blueprint to being successful against the Huskies as their 2 stars were held in check. I also give them credit for never quitting or looking intimidated.

A better team matchup wise can execute the same plan & most times win as can you really count on the rest of the Huskies players to shoot lights out every game? I would not count on it.

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Season:

33-32-01 51% -445 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 28-30-01 48% -745

[EveryGamblersDream]

Kansas State -5 -120

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/20 Recap:

00-01-00 0% -120 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

A bad game & loss for the Wildcats on their home floor. As I've stated, winning on the road in the Big 12 is extremely difficult. So it is imperative to win your home games & K-State failed to do so.

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Season:

33-33-01 50% -565 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 28-31-01 47% -865

[EveryGamblersDream]

Tennessee -9 -120

Purdue +10 -120

I am real excited about these 2 games tonight as I think both lines are flat out horrible. I have been doing real well with Tennessee games & the SEC in general. I bet against them the last couple of games & was rewarded with wins.

Their lines were slanted too high based off previous games & were ripe for the picking. Since those games played out like I expected, I can turn around & get a much favorable # in a spot where I do see them winning by double digits.

Georgia is a talented team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their issues are the same as always with their recent teams. They play great defense but have a short rotation, & are prone to scoring droughts. They get away with it against inferior teams due to their defensive strength. However when they matchup with equally skilled teams, especially on both sides of the ball, they run into trouble.

This is usually the case when they play the Lady Vols & will be no different tonight. The only problem I have with the # is more of me being picky as I expected it to be lower. What hurt was Georgia getting blown out at Vanderbilt. I knew they would lose that game but not as badly as they did which shaded this 2-3 points higher.

Unfortunately besides the normal matchup problems they have with the Lady Vols, the Lady Bulldogs are running into a squad hell bent on making a statement. They are not happy with the efforts of recent games where they started to coast. They are hell bent on a 40 minute effort tonight so if they get up big, they won't sit on a lead.

This is a horrible spot for Georgia even at home. I will gladly take single digits in a game I think the Lady Vols win by pretty much double what is posted.

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The Purdue line is another one that I think is flat out awful & is more indicitive of results on the road this season versus how these two teams usually perform against one another. The last 10 meetings between these two have been split & most decided by single digits.

These two teams both play defense first, & let that carry them to wins. In what will be a battle between two even teams statistically, getting double digits is huge. Honestly this line is only high because the Lady Boilermakers two road losses in conference were by 13 & 27 points respectively.

However the 13 point loss was a nip & tuck game the entire way until horrible officiating tainted the outcome as Wisconsin got to win the game from the charity stripe. The 27 point loss was just a complete throwout as they played so bad it was unbelievable. This was the game where I talked about how at least 75% of their 33 turnovers were unforced errors.

This is a big conference game for both teams which need to start making some noise & move up in the standings. I expect a tight game in which will be decided by 3-6 points either way. I'll take the double digits & coast to what should be a wire to wire cover.

[EveryGamblersDream]

01/21 Recap:

00-02-00 0% -240 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

I apologize for the last couple of days. I was extremely disappointed by Tennessee's offensive output. Defensively they played great the entire game & shut Georgia down as I expected.

However in the 2nd H they along with the Bulldogs could not buy a bucket. It was brutal to watch their sharpshooters miss one shot after another.

Purdue has the be the worst road team I have seen this season. They as usual played well for a bit, then went into a funk, & fell apart from there. Sick of their ****.....

Well still plenty of time in the season but I am annoyed as **** now...

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Season:

33-35-01 49% -805 (Based on to win $100 per play for record purposes only)

Breakdown:

Dec: 05-02-00 71% +300

Jan: 28-33-01 46% -1105