NCAAB March Madness Tourney Thread

[Q-Unit]

Sunday:

Washington +4

- not sold on UNC totally, think the Huskies will keep it close. Although I have Washington making the sweet 16, not much stock into that since I also had Pitt winning the whole darn thing :puke: lol

Texas -6

- usually you don't want to bet the next game based on how bad they played the previous game, but I think turnovers are not something you just "fix". I could be wrong but seems like Arizona does not take care of the ball, and the last game just made me lean towards Texas, and for this reason taking the over as well. Chalk em both up as losers :sm:

Arizona/Texas o139

Purdue -9

- not much for the VCU lovefest, wasn't that impressed with Georgetown to begin with, and these guys have to be tired with 3 games in 6 days or so... although seeing how well UConn is doing, I guess that's not much of a factor... Nevertheless rolling with the Boilermakers.

Marquette +5

- another one of those I have no significant reason to take this game but oddly enough I liked it at first blush so pulled the trigger. Hope Marquette comes through.

Florida State +5.5

- I really think this game will be close, I see ND winning it, but just hoping for a cover from FSU who I think are a tough out.

- Incidentally, interesting to see how all the other conferences are doing pretty darn well and the Big East has gone down in flames this tourney. Guess all that beating up each other took its toll, or the league was not as strong as everyone hoped/wanted it to be.

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[irishmike]

Best of luck today!!:thumbs:

E$piN & CbS are already making excuses for Big Least!:laughing:
The same jackasses that want Tress fired:puke: NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

Great write ups and thanks for the info!

Go Bucks!

GLT

[Q-Unit]

thanks I.mike!

totally agree about ESPN, peddlin' their wares lol

Washington +3.5 2H

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- BetUS has UNC pk -160, so if I'm reading that right, they are begging for UNC 2H? I would figure if I did not have any other book and saw that line I would jump on it, or even so if I had a couple of books, and I were shopping around, I would jump on that line. Taking a shot with the Huskies to keep it going close. What worries me is the 11 PFs to the Tarheels' 2 PFs going into the 2H. If UNC keeps pounding down low, both my side and 2H plays are going down in flames like my bracket

[RahStahMan]

BOL today Q!
:thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

thanks Rah-Stah!

Michigan/Duke u72.5 2H

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- High percentage in 1H, not too much or not too little shots attempted, but Michigan living and dying by the 3 so far, looking for the same pace, lower percentage of makes, and Duke tightening up their 3 defense

[Q-Unit]

thanks I.mike!

totally agree about ESPN, peddlin' their wares lol

Washington +3.5 2H

1 unit

- BetUS has UNC pk -160, so if I'm reading that right, they are begging for UNC 2H? I would figure if I did not have any other book and saw that line I would jump on it, or even so if I had a couple of books, and I were shopping around, I would jump on that line. Taking a shot with the Huskies to keep it going close. What worries me is the 11 PFs to the Tarheels' 2 PFs going into the 2H. If UNC keeps pounding down low, both my side and 2H plays are going down in flames like my bracket

obviously losing this play has me thinking about it. But without more research/tracking, I am starting to think (going the other way) that if a 2H line comes out like this, and BetUS offers a "better" line, that is akin to a casino comping your room or buffet breakfast... i.e., they want you to come back and gamble at their casino so you will lose your money there.

Thus, you (should) take the "comp" line and the other books' normal higher line knowing that there won't be any middle and pray you are on the right side lol

- Key point: I have virtually not seen a 2H line where the discrepancy comes into play. Like above, or in football when I see a BetUS pk 2H line and everyone has it at -7.5, the line discrepancy doesn't come into play, usually it's a blowout on one side. Of course the tricky part is which side. Thinking out loud, but this merits a closer look. Rah Stah and I tracked it on a small sample basis in foots last season but it went south so need to start it up again, and since I forgot the criteria, starting from scratch lolol

[Q-Unit]

Illinois/Kansas u75

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[Q-Unit]

4-4-1 (-0.40 units)

2011 NCAAB Tourney:
Dogs: 7-4-0 (+2.60 units)
Chalk: 2-5-0 (-3.50 units)
MLs: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
Totals: 4-2-1 (+0.70 units)
Futures: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
---------------------------------------
Overall: 13-12-1 (-0.20 units) // 52.00%

[Q-Unit]

Sweet Sixteen

Thursday:

Connecticut -1

Brigham Young University +3

Duke -8.5

Wisconsin -4.5

1 unit each

- the Sweet 16 is where I start to be more aggressive, i.e., bet the board lol because I feel as the teams I seemed to have faded and proven me wrong (e.g., Arizona, SDSU, etc...) are facing other teams that I tailed thus far and have had success (e.g., Wisconsin, Connecticut), which makes it a wash. What does that have to do with capping? Very little I'm afraid lol.

- Like UConn to keep its frenetic pace over the last month, they've had some days off to recoup a bit from their mad run, and I am just not a fan of Steve Fisher I guess, I think Calhoun will eat his lunch, and hopefully spit it out and cover.

- BYU v. FLA is a weird line to me, figure with FLA NOT being a one man show and having a coach with NCAA experience would make them a heavier fave, around 4-5, so taking my chances with BYU.

- I think Duke dominates Arizona, they should bounce back from that atrocious 2H D against Michigan.

- Wisconsin has been the overlooked team here IMO, and I am just going against the sentimental pick of Butler, but I think they won't have as much success as they did last year.

[Q-Unit]

Friday:

Marquette +4.5

Kansas -10.5

Kentucky +6

Florida State -3.5

1 unit each

- Looking for Marquette to keep it close against a UNC team I still don't fully trust to be dominant in longer stretches of games

- I think Kansas is just starting to flex its muscles. People point out inexperience on a talented team, IMO I think when you do have a young team, the hardest hump is the first two games when you enter tournament play, and you are jittery or you don't respect you opponent enough. I think once a powerhouse gets to the sweet 16, the experience has been learned and now it's a matter of playing up to your potential, this applies to Kentucky IMO as well.

- I like Kentucky to flex it's muscles against a talented OSU squad who's killed everyone thus far. Hope they cover the number, I think Kentucky's young squad has gotten over the hump in the first two rounds, so lack of experience is of no consequence here, they need to just execute.

- Florida State has been a pleasant surprise that has been overshadowed by the likes of Richmond, Butler, and VCU. Rightfully so, but I am the corporate ***** that is looking for Goliath to crush the ants lol

[Q-Unit]

3-5 (-2.50 units)

2011 NCAAB Tourney:
Dogs: 8-6-0 (+1.40 units)
Chalk: 4-8-0 (-4.80 units)
MLs: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
Totals: 4-2-1 (+0.70 units)
Futures: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
---------------------------------------
Overall: 16-17-1 (-2.70 units) // 48.48%

Florida -4

Connecticut -2.5

Kansas -11

Kentucky -1.5

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