Week 8 Lines are out Discussion

[BoKnows]

Can we talk a little more about this USF at Rutgers game? I'm very confused as to why this line is set at -2.5. The oddsmakers have to take public perception in to account, and USF is seen as an invincible force at the moment and to get even action they could probably set this thing at -7, even dangle the hook at -7.5. Rutgers does have a very good offense, but USF is giving up less than 300 YPG, including their last game in which they held UCF to 145 yards of total offense. USF went in to Auburn and scored 26 and held the Tigers under 300 yards of total offense. That was also the same game that USF was held to their lowest rushing output, 135 yards(not too bad if you ask me). That's the same Auburn D that held McFadden and co. to 67 yards rushing and Tim Tebow's Gators to 111 yards on the ground. Looking at Rutgers' D in comparison, they had nearly 300 yards rolled up on them on the ground by Maryland, 254 against Navy, 150 by Cincy, and 112 by Syracuse(that is the only game all season that Syracuse went for 100+ on the ground BTW).


I feel like I'm losing my train of thought right now but basically what I'm trying to get at is, USF just looks like a FAR superior team at this point in the season. Can someone talk me off the ledge here and show me what I'm missing?

Home Live Dog Thursday night....need I say more. Like you mentioned this line looks a little skinny for such a powerhouse like USF..(see exageration here). Take the points and enjoy. Though betting against USF this year for me has been an issue:bang:

[Underdog88]

SFLA IS NOT going to go undefeated this year. It just is too hard. These are 19 and 20 year old kids that don't come to play every week. If they did, we wouldn't have the Stanfords beating the USC's every week. I think this is a sucker line. As HD says, if it looks too good to be true it probably is. RUT will be sky high for this game and lets not forget, they still have a chance to win the conference with some help. If you play the old, team A beat team B and team B beat team C **** Nitts, you wouldn't have any upsets. I think Rutgers was looking ahead last week at Syracuse which is why they came out asleep. I can promise you one thing, SFLA will get Rutgers best game whatever that may be. And all you guys who were singing the praises of Shiano (sp?) last year....what, all of a sudden he can't coach now? I think it is a trap/sucker line.......

and look at what happened to the vaunted Cincy team last weekend. Held to 24 points by a brutal LOU D and turned it over 40 times in the game. **** happens. I do think it is funny how all of a sudden we have annoited SFLA as the only team that could beat the Patriots. They are human and they will lose at least once along the way....

:thumbs:



IMO the line alone is telling you they expect a close one, I'm leaning Rutgers. Nobody is talking about the actual matchup, just about how it looks like a trap line, or how thursday homedogs cover a lot, or how sweet USF is. Rutgers averages 182 rushing/307 passing, while USF averages 180 on the ground & 213 passing. Let's look at the passing attacks. Rutgers has the edge there (The Scarlet Knights are the 12th best passing attack, while USF is ranked 73rd), & Teel has thrown for 300 yards in the last 3 games. However, this is far & away the best pass D Rutgers has faced this year (USF #15 pass D in the nation). Maryland is #30, while Cuse Navy & Cincy are 96, 101, & 102! For USF, this is the best pass D they have faced, as the Rutgers pass D is ranked 5th in the nation. On the ground, both are able to move the ball. As Nitts mentioned, Rutgers has allowed some big yardage on the ground... They allowed 150 to Cincy, but the Bearcats ran the ball 40 times, so 3.8 ypc allowed really isn't that bad. They allowed 254 to Navy, but that's really not bad as Navy does nothing but run. The Terps game worries me a bit, as they allowed 239 there... I think the key for the Rutgers D is to stop Grothe from running, as he has more yards than his rbs. Rutgers is usually able to get a good pass rush on the qb, so I think they have the ability to limit those big runs by Grothe. IMO it will come down to who wins the turnover battle... Rutgers has now lost 2 games because of turnovers (4 vs Cincy & 3 vs. Maryland). I'm sure Schiano will be preaching about them protecting the football. If you really look, this is only USF's 2nd big test on the road, with Auburn being the 1st. They won the Auburn game because of turnovers, Aub had 5 of them!

[pitch21]

These are public plays but I like both Oklahoma -29 @ Iowa St. and Texas -24.5 @ Baylor......anyone else have the same feeling?

[Livin tha Life]

[QUOTE=NittanyLions94;89396]I am aware of the trap line, which is why I want talked off the ledge.[/QUOTE

[NathanUK]

I agree with those above that like:

Louisville -3 at UCONN
Maryland -4 vs. Virginia

I also like:
Colorado +4 vs. Kansas
I just don't think Kansas is as good as their record shows, and we know how well home dogs have been performing this season.

I like my Cats +7 vs. Florida too, but I stay away from betting on my team.

[birdsfan5]

Rutgers will win SU:beerbang:

Miss st +23 I came up with 10. Miss st is a solid team with a good defense and running game. I feel they will run the ball and pull out a late SU win.

[Irish Sooner]

Skinsfan I agree with Maryland. Maryland teams always start the season off slow andthen build momentum throughout the year, this is due to the complex offense that they run. Maryland is always a nice team to start making money with towards the middle of the year. :thumbs:

[JayCol]

Christ..who am i kidding....RU will win it...already down to -2 at 5dimes:laughing:

I agree RU will win it, the coach knows how to get the team ready for a big game.

JC

[NittanyLions94]

I am aware of the trap line, which is why I want talked off the ledge.

[HoosierDaddy]

SFLA IS NOT going to go undefeated this year. It just is too hard. These are 19 and 20 year old kids that don't come to play every week. If they did, we wouldn't have the Stanfords beating the USC's every week. I think this is a sucker line. As HD says, if it looks too good to be true it probably is. RUT will be sky high for this game and lets not forget, they still have a chance to win the conference with some help. If you play the old, team A beat team B and team B beat team C **** Nitts, you wouldn't have any upsets. I think Rutgers was looking ahead last week at Syracuse which is why they came out asleep. I can promise you one thing, SFLA will get Rutgers best game whatever that may be. And all you guys who were singing the praises of Shiano (sp?) last year....what, all of a sudden he can't coach now? I think it is a trap/sucker line.......

and look at what happened to the vaunted Cincy team last weekend. Held to 24 points by a brutal LOU D and turned it over 40 times in the game. **** happens. I do think it is funny how all of a sudden we have annoited SFLA as the only team that could beat the Patriots. They are human and they will lose at least once along the way....

The Cincy game def. scares/scared me. College football has been wacky this year.

I agree with you about the "sucker line"...but then again, I thought the Pats/Cowboys was also a sucker line.

Christ..who am i kidding....RU will win it...already down to -2 at 5dimes:laughing:

[FlyersFan]

Can we talk a little more about this USF at Rutgers game? I'm very confused as to why this line is set at -2.5. The oddsmakers have to take public perception in to account, and USF is seen as an invincible force at the moment and to get even action they could probably set this thing at -7, even dangle the hook at -7.5. Rutgers does have a very good offense, but USF is giving up less than 300 YPG, including their last game in which they held UCF to 145 yards of total offense. USF went in to Auburn and scored 26 and held the Tigers under 300 yards of total offense. That was also the same game that USF was held to their lowest rushing output, 135 yards(not too bad if you ask me). That's the same Auburn D that held McFadden and co. to 67 yards rushing and Tim Tebow's Gators to 111 yards on the ground. Looking at Rutgers' D in comparison, they had nearly 300 yards rolled up on them on the ground by Maryland, 254 against Navy, 150 by Cincy, and 112 by Syracuse(that is the only game all season that Syracuse went for 100+ on the ground BTW).


I feel like I'm losing my train of thought right now but basically what I'm trying to get at is, USF just looks like a FAR superior team at this point in the season. Can someone talk me off the ledge here and show me what I'm missing?

SFLA IS NOT going to go undefeated this year. It just is too hard. These are 19 and 20 year old kids that don't come to play every week. If they did, we wouldn't have the Stanfords beating the USC's every week. I think this is a sucker line. As HD says, if it looks too good to be true it probably is. RUT will be sky high for this game and lets not forget, they still have a chance to win the conference with some help. If you play the old, team A beat team B and team B beat team C **** Nitts, you wouldn't have any upsets. I think Rutgers was looking ahead last week at Syracuse which is why they came out asleep. I can promise you one thing, SFLA will get Rutgers best game whatever that may be. And all you guys who were singing the praises of Shiano (sp?) last year....what, all of a sudden he can't coach now? I think it is a trap/sucker line.......

and look at what happened to the vaunted Cincy team last weekend. Held to 24 points by a brutal LOU D and turned it over 40 times in the game. **** happens. I do think it is funny how all of a sudden we have annoited SFLA as the only team that could beat the Patriots. They are human and they will lose at least once along the way....

[Skinsfan]

i really like the terps this weekend

UVA overrated.... 6-1, but barely won most of these games... lucky to beat mid tenn st, lucky against uconn.... maryland, on the other hand, has looked very good the last couple games... their running game has been TREMENDOUS, imho, and is very underrated.

Also like bama....

[Livin tha Life]

I'm already having a hard time staying away from SFLA at -2.5 on thursday night.

Reminds me a lot of the Lousiville/RU game last year, also on a thursday night, where RU pulled the upset.

I think this SFLA team is better than last year's louisville team, thoough, and RU hasn't beaten anyone this year.

me too........**** i wanna jump all over SFU!

[HoosierDaddy]

Can we talk a little more about this USF at Rutgers game? I'm very confused as to why this line is set at -2.5. The oddsmakers have to take public perception in to account, and USF is seen as an invincible force at the moment and to get even action they could probably set this thing at -7, even dangle the hook at -7.5. Rutgers does have a very good offense, but USF is giving up less than 300 YPG, including their last game in which they held UCF to 145 yards of total offense. USF went in to Auburn and scored 26 and held the Tigers under 300 yards of total offense. That was also the same game that USF was held to their lowest rushing output, 135 yards(not too bad if you ask me). That's the same Auburn D that held McFadden and co. to 67 yards rushing and Tim Tebow's Gators to 111 yards on the ground. Looking at Rutgers' D in comparison, they had nearly 300 yards rolled up on them on the ground by Maryland, 254 against Navy, 150 by Cincy, and 112 by Syracuse(that is the only game all season that Syracuse went for 100+ on the ground BTW).


I feel like I'm losing my train of thought right now but basically what I'm trying to get at is, USF just looks like a FAR superior team at this point in the season. Can someone talk me off the ledge here and show me what I'm missing?

Hop on the ledge with me, pal:beerbang:

The *only* legit reason I give for this line is the homefield "advantage" (which ia addressed in my thread)

I guess I can still see South Florida *still* getting the shaft because they are such an "unknown" team to most of the public.

Granted, it has been an absolutely screwy season so far, and thursday night home dogs seem to always perform well.

[NittanyLions94]

Can we talk a little more about this USF at Rutgers game? I'm very confused as to why this line is set at -2.5. The oddsmakers have to take public perception in to account, and USF is seen as an invincible force at the moment and to get even action they could probably set this thing at -7, even dangle the hook at -7.5. Rutgers does have a very good offense, but USF is giving up less than 300 YPG, including their last game in which they held UCF to 145 yards of total offense. USF went in to Auburn and scored 26 and held the Tigers under 300 yards of total offense. That was also the same game that USF was held to their lowest rushing output, 135 yards(not too bad if you ask me). That's the same Auburn D that held McFadden and co. to 67 yards rushing and Tim Tebow's Gators to 111 yards on the ground. Looking at Rutgers' D in comparison, they had nearly 300 yards rolled up on them on the ground by Maryland, 254 against Navy, 150 by Cincy, and 112 by Syracuse(that is the only game all season that Syracuse went for 100+ on the ground BTW).


I feel like I'm losing my train of thought right now but basically what I'm trying to get at is, USF just looks like a FAR superior team at this point in the season. Can someone talk me off the ledge here and show me what I'm missing?