Week October 11-17 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

What are the top ML Dogs of the week?

I would have to say mine would be ARK, HAW and possssssibley UKY as dogs of FG+....smaller dogs i like WASH and LATECH.

I am still on the fence with playing UKY spread and ML....bad spot for SCAR...

[FlyersFan]

I thought I read somewhere the total is 69.5...crazy high, but certainly feasible.

I don't think Ok State's defense is great or anything, far from it. But would you rather have theirs or Texas Tech's? I'd take the Cowboys, personally.

As far as strength of schedule, its not like Texas Tech has run the gauntlet. Texas is decent, but that's about it. Iowa State, who rang up 52 on TT, was a fraud that got exposed by 41 last weekend. SMU is a decent CUSA team that might make the Poulan Weedeater Bowl. New Mexico is the worst team in the nation.

im not really making a case for TacoTech MP...nor am i defending them......i just don't see much difference between what either team has done and i don't see a ton of value in that line either way....think the line is about right IMO....TacoTech has been good at home in these games off first memory and i lean to them in probably a similar game to what the Baylor game was......Tubberville versus "im a man, im 40" doesn't exactly instill a lot of confidence in me coaching wise to pick a side either.

[FlyersFan]

got down on a couple more where the line has started to move against me and i don't think is coming back.......HAW +9 -130, TXAM -3....also played ARK +4 -120 as i don't see that line climbing much higher.

also added to Iowa play at -3 -115...honestly don't think the line is in play here and the Hawks win by 10-13 points but couldn't pass up the value in getting them at a FG (was -3 1/2 -105 bought the 1/2pt)

that OREST/WASH line is all over the place...opened PK went to OREST -3/-2 1/2 and now back down around PK. definitely got the best value on that line playing it at the peak.

I am giving A/M one last shot this week...covering a FG at home versus a Mizzou team that really IMO hasn't been tested and may be a semi fraudulent 5-0. We shall see I guess.

[MParris86]

interesting as the line opened OKST -1 and is now TacoTech -3.....sharp early money in on TacoTech......i hear what you're saying but i could care less about stats rung up against a bunch of SunBelt and CUSA garbage programs....they played 1 decent team so far and won a nailbiter at home. My point in this game is that what about OKST's defense or lack there of.....and as for forcing turnovers...that happens when you play Troy, Tulsa, Wazzu and ULL. GL if you play OKSt.....:thumbs:......for me i think TacoTech finds a way to get it done at home and i will most likely be looking at the total(s) when they come out (team and game) to see if i can find any value there. To crow about either team's defense in this game is laughable IMO as OKST's D has given up 30+ PPG to some real junk teams. OKST does have a fantastic RB i will give you that.

I likely won't make decisions on games like this until Friday honestly....just giving you my 2 cents....:thumbs:

I thought I read somewhere the total is 69.5...crazy high, but certainly feasible.

I don't think Ok State's defense is great or anything, far from it. But would you rather have theirs or Texas Tech's? I'd take the Cowboys, personally.

As far as strength of schedule, its not like Texas Tech has run the gauntlet. Texas is decent, but that's about it. Iowa State, who rang up 52 on TT, was a fraud that got exposed by 41 last weekend. SMU is a decent CUSA team that might make the Poulan Weedeater Bowl. New Mexico is the worst team in the nation.

[FlyersFan]

Call me crazy, I see value in OK State getting points here.

interesting as the line opened OKST -1 and is now TacoTech -3.....sharp early money in on TacoTech......i hear what you're saying but i could care less about stats rung up against a bunch of SunBelt and CUSA garbage programs....they played 1 decent team so far and won a nailbiter at home. My point in this game is that what about OKST's defense or lack there of.....and as for forcing turnovers...that happens when you play Troy, Tulsa, Wazzu and ULL. GL if you play OKSt.....:thumbs:......for me i think TacoTech finds a way to get it done at home and i will most likely be looking at the total(s) when they come out (team and game) to see if i can find any value there. To crow about either team's defense in this game is laughable IMO as OKST's D has given up 30+ PPG to some real junk teams. OKST does have a fantastic RB i will give you that.

I likely won't make decisions on games like this until Friday honestly....just giving you my 2 cents....:thumbs:

[MParris86]

ok but here's the flip side.......but honestly, what has OKST done this year either....:dunno:.....they have beaten no one IMO.....Wazzu, Tulsa, Troy, ULL....:dunno:...yes they beat A&M but i wasn't impressed.....game filled with a million turnovers...they are ranked #22 basically by default as an undefeated team in week 7

This is their first real road game against a decent team AND....they do have Nebraska at home on deck so there is always the possibility of catching them peeking at the schedule. I think this line is spot on.....might be a last team with the ball wins type game like the TXAM/OKST game.....i imagine the books will price us out of an over play here like they did in the MichSt/michigan game....tough game to call IMO. When neither team can stop anyone i really don't know how you handicap that except for looking for some form of an over if the price is right......

Here's the thing...Oklahoma State has something that Texas Tech doesnt: a reliable running game. The Cowboys have a very good RB in Kendall Hunter who has run for 700 yds already this year and 9 TDs. This is a kid that went for 1500 and 16 TDs in 2008. He can carry 25+ a game if they need him to.

It's exactly what Oklahoma State did to beat Texas Tech last year...run the ball and control the clock. They put up 243 rushing yards (207 after halftime) last season in a 24-17 win.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has the 102nd ranked rushing attack in the country.

I also think Blackmon is the best playmaker on either team and Oklahoma State's defense is better and more opportunistic; they are 10th in the country in turnover differential (+1.25). TT hasn't forced a turnover in either of their past two games while allowing 90 pts in the process. Also...TT's best DLineman has been suspended for the rest of the season.

Here's what Tuberville had to say today about OK State's offense:

"It is what gives you nightmares," he said. "That is what we are working towards. When you get a passing game like Oklahoma State has and you get the running game going it is a double whammy. It gives nightmares to your linebackers. Do you pass coverage or try to stop the run?

Call me crazy, I see value in OK State getting points here.

[FlyersFan]

Oklahoma St +3 at Texas Tech? What has TT done deserve to be a favorite over a ranked opponent?

ok but here's the flip side.......but honestly, what has OKST done this year either....:dunno:.....they have beaten no one IMO.....Wazzu, Tulsa, Troy, ULL....:dunno:...yes they beat A&M but i wasn't impressed.....game filled with a million turnovers...they are ranked #22 basically by default as an undefeated team in week 7

This is their first real road game against a decent team AND....they do have Nebraska at home on deck so there is always the possibility of catching them peeking at the schedule. I think this line is spot on.....might be a last team with the ball wins type game like the TXAM/OKST game.....i imagine the books will price us out of an over play here like they did in the MichSt/michigan game....tough game to call IMO. When neither team can stop anyone i really don't know how you handicap that except for looking for some form of an over if the price is right......

[FlyersFan]

NEVADA -10..(will run HAWAII in 2 the ground)......:

and HAW won't do the same to UNR??.......let me be the first to tell you after watching them live that their defense is small and can be pushed around...HAW will throw it all over UNR and I think this line is way off....i honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a HAW upset in this one. I will look at the HAW TT as well when it comes out.

[FlyersFan]

As far as that Indiana-Arkansas St game...Indy -12 looks really appealing but after looking at it closer I think its a fair line. Arkansas State usually plays BCS conference teams pretty close (see last year a 24-21 loss AT #13 Iowa). Indiana SHOULD throw all over them, but the Hoosiers also should have beaten Akron and Western Kentucky (arguably the two worst teams in CFB) by more than 15 and 17 respectively. Indiana's offense was abysmal last week, albeit against Ohio State. If they don't get it purring quickly, Arky State will hang around and it will be a game. Indiana doesn't put teams away and Arky State fights...just ask Louisville.

No play for me.

yeah, really agree there MP....not to mention they are off of b2b conference games versus OSU and Michigan and now have a non conference game smack dab in the middle of conference play. I am always of the opinion that it is tough to keep getting up for games and you know that teams like IU circle the Michigans and OSU's every year as the "make our season" type games. I think this is the classic let down spot honestly and, though, I think IU wins if i were to play anything IU wise I would be most likely to look at an IU TT Over. I don't want an out of gas IU team laying DD @ home in a sandwich spot....noooo thanks....

[MParris86]

As far as that Indiana-Arkansas St game...Indy -12 looks really appealing but after looking at it closer I think its a fair line. Arkansas State usually plays BCS conference teams pretty close (see last year a 24-21 loss AT #13 Iowa). Indiana SHOULD throw all over them, but the Hoosiers also should have beaten Akron and Western Kentucky (arguably the two worst teams in CFB) by more than 15 and 17 respectively. Indiana's offense was abysmal last week, albeit against Ohio State. If they don't get it purring quickly, Arky State will hang around and it will be a game. Indiana doesn't put teams away and Arky State fights...just ask Louisville.

No play for me.

[rocjones]

im in early MIZZOU +3(defense is playing well along with offense)...........SCAR -7(coming off big victory and 2 much defense for KENTUCKY).........NEVADA -10..(will run HAWAII in 2 the ground)......ARKANSAS +3.(lookin for MALLET 2 abuse AUBURN weak secondary + AUBRN has LSU coming 2 town next week)......INDIANA -14 (CHAPPELL will have a field day against ARK ST defense) GL FELLAS:thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

So far I am down on SDSU +3 1/2 -120, Wazzu +24 and WASH +3 -120 and Iowa -4.

[FlyersFan]

SD State dropped to +1 and I missed it. I knew it was a crap number and should have grabbed it early.

One total I like as they were just released...

Ohio State/Wiscy UNDER 50. I played it already and boutgh the 1/2 but think it stays under. Wiscy will run the ball and OSU's D is solid.

I cannot see 7 tds being scored in that game, can you guys?

Wow....SDSU down to +1??....that is a big fall....i grabbed them at +3 1/2 -120 last night. I honestly think the true line value here is SDSU +1 so the value is gone at that point.

As for the OSU total....tough call. Wisconsin didn't exactly stymie MSU and even Minnesota was able to put up 23 on them. OSU's offense has been rolling for the most part this year....they had 31 in the 1H vs. IU and then called off the dogs in the 2H. I don't think it's far fetched to see OSU put up around 30+ points in this game. OSU has a ton of weapons on offense. This isn't a 17-13 game IMO.......i think that the total is pretty close to being correct.

[rocjones]

hmmmm

OSU will score get lead....That will force BADGERS to throw....It has that 35-21 feeling...I think badgers lose...But it will open the pass bcuz OSU will b n the box to stop CLAY..I think BADGERS WR'S r healthy now TOON and GILREATH.P.S.remember BADGERShave the best O-LINE in the country.. I like the over..

[Woody12]

SD State dropped to +1 and I missed it. I knew it was a crap number and should have grabbed it early.

One total I like as they were just released...

Ohio State/Wiscy UNDER 50. I played it already and boutgh the 1/2 but think it stays under. Wiscy will run the ball and OSU's D is solid.

I cannot see 7 tds being scored in that game, can you guys?