Championship Games and Bowls

[RBD]

I have no play on the early game today, W Kent/J Mad.
Because I have conflicting systems.

Bowl system #3 says take J Mad; record 23-15, 60%, 17 years of data charted. Looks good, looks like a play, eh?
But . . .
J Mad is off two SU losses to end the season, a play AGAINST spot based on my friend's system, 3-1 last year, says take W Kent today.
And . . .
WF2 says W Kent should be the Fav. WF2 was 33-45 on Rd teams regular season this year, BUT in Bowls WF2 is 19-10, 65%, two years of data tracked.

Two of three say take W Kent but the one that says J Mad has more than five times as many years of data charted as the other two combined, making it a difficult decision to make - play or not, and if so - WHO?

And this "who's playing, who isn't?" transfer portal nonsense is adding an extra dimension to 'capping, and added factors only makes it more difficult to 'cap.
Because of this I'm going to take it slow this post season. They need to fix this problem.

[RBD]

Update: STILL crunching numbers for the Bowls, halfway through checking for WF2 plays (19-10, 65%, two yrs of data.)
I have four teams that qualify so far, the reason for this update is one of them is UNLV.
So that's WFNP, WF1, AND WF2 all saying UNLV should be the Fav.
And . . .when all three WF spots match, the record is 3-0, two yrs of data.

No guarantee the play will win of course but UNLV +4 might be the best timed buy I make this Bowl season as the WAN is now +1.

[RBD]

EXCELLENT move posting the early buy notice on UNLV yesterday afternoon at +4 when it was the WAN. This morning it's at +2', < a FG.

The Rebels are my second Bowl Buy, first forum pick. The other buy is in my first article of the week, where I detail the eight Bowl systems (I hate that word) I use.
My second article will give info on the methods I use for the regular season and how they perform (records) in Bowls. And that's where my UNLV pick comes from.

Reg season I use two 'capping methods (WF1, WF2) to try and find WF's (Wrong Favs) to play ON or AGAINST. In Bowls I have a third (WFNP.)

WFNP says UNLV should be the Fav. Three years of data on WFNP in Bowls shows a record of 16-7, 69%.

WF1 also says UNLV should be the Fav. WF1 has two years of data on Bowl games and a record of 20-10, 67%.

When I get a match (when both WFNP and WF1 have the same WF) the record is 5-0.

Ya gotta like those stats.

I'll have more of these plays in my articles and here in the forum throughout the Bowl season.

GOOD LUCK to all of you with your Bowl play.

[RBD]

I just finished 'capping the bowl games.
I have some good stuff.

As always, I'll have article picks and forum picks, separate records for each (due to deadlines and late picks/second half plays.)

In my first article this week I'll breakdown the different Bowl systems (I hate that that word) I use, including the records for each of them.
It will also have picks and analysis on the first game I'm buying.
See ya there.

UPDATE: A heads up on a pick. I bought UNLV just now at +4 as the hook is off at some houses on my screens.
Opened Cal -1', went to -4, starting to reverse course now.
Will give reasons/details/records in the forum tomorrow.

[RBD]

Update: In my weekly college football article I gave out a pick and analysis on Boise St, with a "Wait to buy" recommendation.
The line opened at Boise -5.
Yesterday the board was split between -3' and -4 so I waited to see if it continued to drop, but the 3' are gone this morning (I knew that was too low) and -4 is the WAN now.
A couple houses have added juice to the -4 so I grabbed it this morning (Bovada -4, -110) before it goes any higher.

[RBD]

What works in a regular season may not work in the postseason on any sport. But for bowl season I have a few other systems that I use, so between the regular season's handicapping methods and the bowl stuff I should have plenty of plays to carry us through to the championship game next month.

From the picture, left hand column, purple link, NP Unders came in at 23-13, 64%.

T1 Unders, orange ink, came in at 13-6, 68%.

And of course, * plays, far right hand side of the page, Orange ink, 9-19, 67% Fade.

Have one place so far for the title games this weekend, article will be up today or tomorrow.

Good luck to you all in the postseason.

[RBD]

At the end of the regular season here's what my charts look like as we enter the bowls (see reply in post number 2. You may have to be signed in to open the picture.)