Championship Games and Bowls

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1 Record: 4-3
Review: Ducks loss is likely my last play this season.
One of the reasons I do okay during the regular season is because of got so many games to choose from on a Saturday. Fewer games on this late means fewer choices.

In one of my next columns I'll do a full accounting update on college football, articles and the forum, as well as my update for December accounting.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-2

Review: got a win with my last pick, East Carolina.
4-2 looks good but it's not when you consider where it should be - much better.
Both WF spots won yesterday and I didn't use either.

Here's what I have now:
WFNP 3-1-1
WF1 9-4 (Oregon qualifies today)
WF2 9-5
I wrote about those three plays in my first college football article at the beginning of the regular season.
Coming into this year they were:
WFNP 16-7
WF1 20-10
WF2 19-10
Solid numbers all around and it's continued this year.
But because of losses on some of my other Bowl season systems (0-3 on my article picks) I backed off playing more games this season.
From now to the last game played I'm taking the thinking out of it - if it qualifies, I play it.

Starting with today.
Ohio State's up to -2' with extra juice being added to the Fav.
I'll wait to buy the Ducks as I expect to get a full FG by kickoff. Seems most people think Oregon's win earlier this season over the Buckeyes was a fluke and paybacks are coming.

Side note - we now have a Flip-Flop Fav in N. Dame/Georgia. I have the record on new Favs at 5-2.
Might be off buy a game if anyone wants to check, but here's what my chart show:
Memphis, Iowa State, UNLV, USF, LSU covered as new Favs, Texas Tech and Washington lost.
Right now I like Notre Dame anyway tonight, that 5-2 record may make me add them later, depending on how I feel after the Ohio State game with Oregon.

Update: A little over an hour left until game time, line still has extra juice on the -2'. If it doesn't get to +3 by kickoff I'll lay the extra 10 cents to get the FG.

[RBD]

Updates:
Some bowl records:
Favs 14 Dogs 15 Push 2 (no edge)
Ov 18 Un 13 (slight edge for Overs)

I have FF Favs at 3-2, slight edge for the new Favs (Wash and Baylor qualify today)

My stuff:
WFNP 2-1-1 (Louis qualifies today)
WF1 8-4 (LSU qualifies today)
WF2 8-5 (Louis qualifies today)
M/M WFNP/WF2 (match, both have the same WF) 0-2 this year

Good stats on plays ON any of the three WF systems today but gut feel - I don't like any of them.
Gotta have action though, will add something later.

Good luck on your plays today.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-2

Review: Got a good performance from the Connecticut offense for a W.
Boston College?
Four times they went for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal.
Four times they failed. And I lose the game by a point and a half.

Can't say it was unexpected considering head coach O'Brien only kicked five field goals the entire season. Five.
Three solid systems with excellent W %'s, and a fourth counting when I get a match between all three, go down.
Triple ugh.

Next play I'm going to use East Carolina.
WF1 (6-3 now) and WF2 (7-4 now) both say take East Carolina.
When I get a match between the two, 5-3, including this year's loan match, South Florida.

E Car +7'

[RBD]

Looked at the site for my bc/nebraska write up didn't see it.
Checked my Slack chat - I set it aside for final edit and with the holidays forgot to send it in!

Couple minutes late now, just kicked off, but here it is anyway.

BC vs Nebraska


Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, December 28th 9:00 a.m. PST

Before I get to my pick for today's article, here's an update on my pending Bowl plays.

Rutgers/K St, 12/26
K St, wait to buy, was at -7, still - 7.
Still waiting.

Oklahoma, 12/27
I have a really Strong Bowl system on this game (Play #7, 12-6, 67%, 17 years worth of data) but have a really bad number on it at -8'.
Since the time I made my bet, TWENTY-FIVE Sooners have announced they're leaving for the transfer portal, including their starting QB.
Navy, being a military academy, has zero players transferring and no significant injuries.
The opening -8' I bought is now down to -3.
Ugh X 10.

South Carolina
I got the - nope, not saying that word - let's just say the "Carolinians" at -9', and that's where the line's still at.

Mississippi, 1/2/2025
I got the Rebels at - 14, - 120, no real line change, -14' today.

Next up, BC, on 12/28.
The line opened Nebraska -3' and hasn't changed.

BC is 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS, 3-2 ATS away.
Neb is 6-6 SU, 6-4-2 ATS, 2-2- away.

Nebraska has slight edges in ranking and SOS.
BC has the edge in points scored and rushing offense (the category I rate the highest in Bowl handicapping) with a 176 per game average against 130 for Nebraska.
I also like the BC edge in turnover margin, a +9 differential. Tight game, small spread, turnovers usually make the difference.
But my main reasons for going with the Eagles come from my unique handicapping methods for choosing WF's (Wrong Favs.)
I'm using three different ones for the Bowls.

WFNP, record 16-7, 69% over the last 3 years, 1-0 this year.

WF1, 20-10, 67%, last 2 years, 2-2 this year.

WF2, 19-10, 65%, 2 years, 2-2 this year.

BC qualifies in all three.
And, when I get a match like this, when all three say take the same team, it was 2-0 coming into this season. I had the same play earlier this year when all three said take UNLV. I used it for my first forum Bowl pick and banked a winner when the Rebels won 24-13.


Other notes:

Boston College closed out the season strong by winning three of their last four including wins over Syracuse, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh, the only loss coming against #14 SMU.

Nebraska dropped five of their last six, including losses to #4 Ohio State and #16 Indiana, the only win coming against 5-7 Wisconsin.

Nebraska head coach Matt Ruhle has a Bowl record of 1-3, a .250 win percentage.

BC head coach Bill O'Brien is 0-0.

Transfer portal/opt-outs gives a distinct advantage to BC. By current day standards the Eagles are relatively untouched while Nebraska suffered heavy losses at key positions. Yes, BC QB Castellanos is in the portal but he was benched for the last three games anyway, replaced by Grayson James.
James lost in his first start against #14 SMU but led the Eagles to wins in their last two games, putting up 41 points and 34 points, including hitting 20 of 28 for 253 yards and two TDS, zero INT's in the season finale.

When to Buy Recommendation

I don't see Nebraska money coming in and pushing this line any higher.
Getting better than a field goal in what I expect will be a tight game (with BC having a really good shot at winning SU) says, "Take the points" in this one.

BC +3'

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1, lost with Texas Tech.
Bowl record: 2-1

Short on time, have to make this quick.
Have Connecticut today, they qualify for WF1 (5-2 in Bowls) and WF2 (6-3 in Bowls.)
Matches (when both say the same play) are 1-0 in Bowls.

Also taking BC today.
Qualifies for WF1, WF2 and WFNP (1-0 in bowls.)
This is the second time all three said the same game, first was UNLV. Triple match like today was 2-0 last year.


Other plays that qualify for WF1 today are (play ON teams):
Colorado State, East Carolina, BYU.

Other spots that qualify for WF2 today:
East Carolina, La Tech.

Have a match between the two on East Carolina, may add it later after seeing how this morning's match goes.

Adding BC +3'

[RBD]

The Sooners scored a TD on both of their first two possessions, and then . . . nothing until their final possession of the game.

I'm betting HC Venables doesn't make it through next season without getting fired.
That's if they don't dump him before the season starts.
A 6-7 record in two of three years does not cut it at a major program. Or even a mediocre one.

Three times today Oklahoma needed one yard.
Three times Venables ran a vanilla play straight up the middle.
Three times they were stopped.
I'm pretty sure that if they had another three similar situations he'd run the same play another three times.
With the same results.

And if given a seventh chance at it he'd run the play again, thinking, "They won't be expecting it this time."

I bought Texas Tech in the FFF spot mentioned in the post above. Sticking with what's working until it doesn't.

TT -2'

Update: it looks like Vandy will cover as a WF1 Fav.
If they do, it makes that play 20-10 the last 2 years and 5-2 this season. That's a combined 25-12, a little over 67%.
And like I always say, anything over 58% is good enough to get my money.
Next up Connecticut, early game tomorrow morning.

Open plays:
TT - 2'
Conn +3, -115

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 2-0 Overall forum record: 14-10


It was a fun game to watch, lead changing hands multiple times, SU and ATS.
And in the end Toledo covered, AND Pittsburgh lost straight up. Revenge is oh so sweet.

Lost with my article pick as K State won but didn't cover.
Article plays are 20-10 for the season, 0-1 in Bowls, with three games left.

Bowl system number 3 is 1-1 this season now, with one game left, a play ON Mississippi, who I used for one of my article picks.

Speaking of picks from my articles, I have Oklahoma today and it might just be the worst number I ever got on a game.
Took the opening number -8', before the transfer portal Exodus began for the Sooners.
Today you could get them at -1.

I have one possible saving grace - for some inexplicable reason, after doing all my handicapping work, I didn't chart asterisk plays.
Didn't realize it until yesterday.
Navy qualifies as an asterisk Fade.
These Fades were 20-9, 69% regular season.
Only have one asterisk bowl game so far, Toledo, and they covered so the Fade is 0-1 in the Bowls.
As strong as this play has been all season long I don't think it can save me from the bad line I have.

Here are some other things from my charts for today.
Oklahoma from bowl system number 7, 12-6, 67% over the last 17 years.

We also have a Flip-Flop Fav with Texas Tech.
I have these at 3-0 this year with wins from Memphis, UNLV, and South Florida.
.

WF1 has Vandy. This play is 20-10 over the last 2 years, 4-2 this season.

WF2 has Navy, Washington State, and USC.
This play is 19-10 over the last 2 years, 4-2 this year.

I'll probably add at least one more play today after I'm done getting my ass kicked in Oklahoma.

Good luck with your play today.

Update: Favs 10- 6, one push; Overs 11-6

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

This pick on Pitt/Toledo has Trouble with a capital T written all over it.
Why?
Pitt, me, and Bowls have an ugly history.
To see the horrific details check out my next article, which also has an NFL Stupid Asterisk Play in it (NFL record 3-11 overall, 3-10, 76% Fading Hm teams like this week's play.)

And speaking of Stupid Asterisk Plays . . .
WF2 says Toledo should be the Fav today.
WF2 Bowl record is 19-10 last two years, 3-2 this season, 22-12, 64% overall. Solid numbers that say "Take Toledo" right?
BUT . . .
WF1 says Pitt is the correct Fav, and the spread differential between the two says Toledo qualifies as a Stupid Asterisk Play Fade, a 9-20, 68% regular season Fade; no Bowl record.

Two strong systems, two conflicting plays.
Normally this is a "sit this one out" situation.
But I want action.

WF2 says Toledo.

Stupid * says Pitt.

Money/line move says take Toledo (Pit opened at -9', -6' now and line moves have been pretty much spot on this season.)

Toledo has lost their last two regular season games. From my article outlining Bowl Systems:

https://www.predictem.com/college-football/bowl-betting/

"The seventh (correction, eighth) play is one that I didn’t formulate myself. A friend told me about it last year: “Bet AGAINST any bowl team that ended the regular season with two straight losses.”
Last year this was 3-1 ATS."
This year it's 2-0 (Memphis and UNLV) and the play on this one would be AGAINST Toledo who lost their last two games SU.
BUT . . . Pitt lost their last FIVE games SU.
But two of those losses came to teams rated in the Top 20.
One of Toledo's losses came to 4-8 Akron. They lost to the Zips! That's ugly.

Any help checking conference records for Bowl games in 2024?
Toledo, MAC, 2-1
Pit, ACC 0-3
Edge Toledo.

Any handicapping help from HC Bowl records?
Pitt's Narduzzi is 2-4, Toledo's Candle 2-5. No help, they both stink.

Ahh, who am I kidding. No matter WHAT the numbers say I'm betting AGAINST Pitt in this bowl. And every Bowl they're in. For eternity.
Why? Check out my upcoming article with my NFL play for Sunday, 12/29.
Yes, revenge is NOT a reason to bet. But, I'm Sicilian, we NEVER forget. And we never forgive. I had a great season and can afford to indulge myself a little.
(Plus. this morning Narduzzi announced that the Panther's QB is out. He's starting a red shirt, freshman walk-on. That can't hurt, right?)

The Rockets are getting +6'. I added the hook for just 10 cents at our sponsor Bovada.

Tol +7, -120

[RBD]

Last week I used K State in one of my articles, with a recommendation to wait to buy it. The line was -7 at the time and it hasn't moved. I don't expect it to drop before kick off tomorrow so I bought it today, -7, -105.

[RBD]

Not enough time for people to see this and bet so it's not a play but just a heads up in case anyone does catch this, regarding the play I gave out the parameters for yesterday. SMU second half Under 7' qualifies as a play for and post number 10. And Penn State has a better rushing offense so makes it an even stronger play.

Like I said, I don't post live lines because there's not enough time for people to get a bet in on it. I do post half times sometimes but not when I'm late and today I was watching the KC / Texas game when I realized I needed to check the Penn State score, so it was halfway through halftime already before I saw that SMU scored zero in the first half, meaning it qualifies.
Sorry about that.

Update: SMU puts up 10, Play #5 now 0-2 this season 9-7 overall on the plus side but not by much, best to avoid for the rest of the season.

STILL can't pull the trigger on either of these upcoming games, college or NFL. When you don't have a clear play to make it's best to lay off.
But I want action.
ANOTHER bowl game goes Under with SMU/Penn St, 3 Over 6 Under now, makes it hard to like an Ov.

Don't see anything clear, struggling with deciding what to bet.

[RBD]

Good thing the high price kept me off playing Tulane Team Total Under 7' in the second half!

With just 29 seconds left on the clock they scored a TD. AND even though they were down by 27 points they went for two - and they got it, putting their second half total at 8. Would have been a really bad beat, late score and a meaningless two pointer made.

Good luck doesn't only come when you bet on a game, it comes when you don't make a play also.

With all these games on the card today I only have two plays to choose from.

H/C (Hot/Cold trend reversal) has Clemson/Texas Over.
Only bowl game that qualifies, regular season 17-9 on Overs.
Opened 54, down to 49' this morning. This Bowl season I see eight games, 3 Ov, 5 Un. Slide edge to the Under.


WF1 has Tennessee, 1-1 this Bowl season, 21-11 last two years plus this season.

I'm playing at least one of them, not sure which, I'm going to study up a little bit more, will be back later with a play.

Good luck today everybody.

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

Have a play for the second half, Tul/Fla, Tulane second half team total Under IF I get the I need.
NOT a play that will count for the same reason I don't post live in-game bets - I don't think it's fair, there's no time for bettors to see it and get a bet in.

This play is from Bowl Play #5, record 9-5 ,64%, a simple play - take the team total Un on any team that gets shut out in the first half.
(I think I have 12 or > years of data on this one; don't have my logbook with me.)

I'm writing this with two minutes left in the first half to maximize the amount of time this post is available for anyone looking for angles on the second half.
As soon as the half is finished, and the line is posted, I'll update with the number I get if I buy it.
I much prefer this play when the team I bet the Under on has the worse rush offense yards per game stat, Tulane has the better number but I only get 1-2 of these plays each year so I'll take a chance on it.

Update - I'm disgusted! I just checked FOUR popular "books" and not ONE is offering second half team totals!
Even worse - one of them is only offering a team total on one team (Fla.) Based on their Fla team total Tulane would be 8'.
Disgusting. They should be embarrassed to call themselves books.
I'm going to check a few more outs I have, see if I can find it.

Update - can't find it.
I thought maybe the book that offered only one team was just slow in getting the other team up but no - they're only offering one side, Fla. WTF??!!

I miss the Greek and 5Dimes.

Update #2 - Found it, 7' BUT it's Un -183. No thank you.

[RBD]

Dog and Over last night.

Sides: 3 Favs, 1 Push/Win or Loss depending on when you bought the W K/Mem game, one Dog.
Totals: 2 Ov, 3 Un.



Sam Houston won yesterday so WF2 is now 2-1 this season.

And the line movement won again. Georgia Southern opened at -6 closed -3, Sam Houston money was correct.

Today only one spot qualifies, a play ON Jax State, WF1.
But . . . Ohio opened at -2' and they're -6' right now.
I'd like to play the WF1 spot, (20-10 the last two seasons, 1-0 this year) but the money move on every game so far has been correct so I'm laying off. If it hits +7, I might buy it, will post if I do.

I'm going to do my NBA and college basketball 'capping now, I see anything good I'll post it.


Good luck with your plays today.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

Review: Got a W on my first Bowl play.
Had a great line at UNLV +4 (closed -3') but the pts were a non factor as the Rebels rolled 24-13.

Bowls thus far:

Sides 3 Favs, 1 Push/Win or Loss depending on when you bought the W K/Mem game.

Totals: 1 Ov, 3 Un

Of note - the 'follow the money" theory is 4-0, the line movement based money moves have all been correct.

Today, Sam H qualifies for WF2 but at 1-1 this year (UNLV win W, Kent loss) no play for me.