fading the public

[Daws1089]

i used to run a system for nfl games. If you tease the opposite of all the teams being bet at 65% and over it hit at over 70% for 2 straight seasons. I dont have the hard evidence because my computer recently crashed, but i tracked it and recorded the plays for those 2 seasons.

[Skinsfan]

Tonight, if you had blindly faded the "public" on any NBA play over 60% on one side (based on sportsbook.com), you would have played:

Sacremento +14 (LOSS)
Indiana +2 (WIN)
Toronto -3 (WIN)
Philly -5 (WIN)
Boston +9 (LOSS)
Cleveland -11 (WIN)
Detroit +6 (WIN)
3 other games in progress

[homedawg]

How anyone here doesn't consider themselves to be a part of the public baffles me.

:conf:

[Underdog88]

Plus, use the public percentage and line moves to look for reasons WHY plays look too easy to the public, yet the line may be holding steady or moving opposite the public.

:uhu: I try to set my own lines before see them, & look for reasons as to why they may have added/less value. In the past I relied on fading the public a bit too much, like JoePa said you still gotta call em like you see em

[V3r1f13d]

How anyone here doesn't consider themselves to be a part of the public baffles me.

[Stifler's Mom]

take a GOOD look at what the BOOKS do when they are gettin' hit dat hard....


:beerbang:

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Plus, use the public percentage and line moves to look for reasons WHY plays look too easy to the public, yet the line may be holding steady or moving opposite the public.

[snowman]

prime example, the public was all over texas a&m. memphis gets there

[BoKnows]

Everytime I have used the public majority as a factor in my capping (just saying when I have), it usually results in a loss for me...so I don't even look it up if I can avoid it.

Murphy's Law in action for you!The gambling gods are smarter than the public!

[Larry]

As a general rule of thumb, I fade masterl

And QuickNick:beer2:

[Skinsfan]

As a general rule of thumb, I fade masterl

[Caesar]

Everytime I have used the public majority as a factor in my capping (just saying when I have), it usually results in a loss for me...so I don't even look it up if I can avoid it.

[FearTheRaven]

What you want to do is check out lines that the public is a heavy consensus on and the line swings the other way. Preferably low spread games.

[homedawg]

take a GOOD look at what the BOOKS do when they are gettin' hit dat hard....


:beerbang:

[Kevin]

It'd work for a profit when you get into the 70%+ range. Im almost sure of it. (with nba and nfl)

Not sure about college.

Also, you'd need a fat bankroll to sustain periods of downtimes. Lotsa highs and lows in that I'd think. (good days and bad)

[Realtechfan]

You would be ok as long as you dont fade the ''MITT'':nuts: