I would like to hear everyone's thoughts on what they use for thier MLB handicapping. A couple of stats that I use are team batting average and bullpen WHIP, if a team has better offense and better BP then they have a godd shot at winning IMO.
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Stats for Handicapping MLB
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team batting average against righties / lefties
average pitch count / innings and bullpen EX: Brad Penny throws a ton of pitches, somewhere in the 100-110 range for 6 innings has been his average. If the pen is struggling, I'll play against Penny, especially if the line is in his favor.
Jer - you would love "Betting Baseball" 2007 edition by Michael Murray. it's an easy read and there is so much info in it that you'll need a yellow highlighter and two weeks to go over it... :thumbs:"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives" Jackie Robinson
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Here are a couple of basis things I utilize:
F/A Ratio .0+
One calculates the F/A (For & Against) Ratio for each team by dividing the Runs For / Runs Against.
For example, a past game between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers looked like follows:
TEX - RF = 5.42
TEX - RA = 6.48
DET - RF = 4.74
DET - RA = 5.19
TEX 5.42/6.48 = 0.82
DET 4.74/5.19 = 0.91
In the second step, one subtracts the results for both teams:
TEX: 0.82-0.91 = -0.09; DET: 0.91-0.82 = +0.09.
A team that has a value of >0 and which Money Line is not lower than -150, you have a play. (for this calculation's purpose: -160 is less than -150)
F/A Median 1.5+
This serves as an additional criteria. The calculation goes at follows: (RunsAgainst – 4.70) + (Runs For – 4.80).
If the value is 1.50 or higher this is a play.
Again, the Money Line should be -150 or better.
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Total of 10 or more, Bet the over where the ML for the home team is between +125 and -125
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HH-games (HH = higher/higher) are games where both teams' defense has allowed more runs than the opposition's offense has scored.
Last year, the "HH"-dogs scored +58.87 units.
***********************************************Last edited by Meestermike; 03-30-2007, 02:44 PM.Make a few more today than you made or lost yesterday
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Originally posted by Meestermike View PostHere are a couple of basis things I utilize:
One calculates the F/A (For & Against) Ratio for each team by dividing the RunsFor / RunsAgainst.
For example, a past game between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers looked like follows:
TEX - RF = 5.42
TEX - RA = 6.48
DET - RF = 4.74
DET - RA = 5.19
TEX 5.42/6.48 = 0.82
DET 4.74/5.19 = 0.91
In the second step, one subtracts the results for both teams:
TEX: 0.82-0.91 = -0.09; DET: 0.91-0.82 = +0.09.
A team that has a value of >0 and which Money Line is not lower than -150, you have a play. (for this calculation's purpose: -160 is less than -150)
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Originally posted by Jerbeek View PostNice info Mike! Do you use season stats or something different like last 10 games?
Location does factor into it later in the season but only if the numbers are lopsided to one team.
I also use home and road win% to create a win% edge for the game. Some teams are crappy OTR and others are way over priced at home. Lots of liveMake a few more today than you made or lost yesterday
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Stat categories I've drawn fond of over the past few years....
Batting AVG/SLG vs. R/L
Batting AVG/SLG @ Home/Specific Away Ballpark
Starting Pitchers GB/FB Ratio
Bullpen ERA L5
Runs For/Against in L10
*Any of these in a previous matchup at the same stadium are key.
Try and work those into what ever formula you got goin and see how it does.
-DD :beerbang:“A goal is a dream with a deadline.”
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Daddy's Posted Records (Updated on 9.10.07 @ 11:00 PM PST)
1 Unit = $25
NCAAF >> (3-5-0) -$62.50
NFL >> (4-3-0) +$61.75
2007 FOOTBALL = -$0.75
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Once the pitchers have had 4-5 starts, one of the key things I look at with starting pitchers is their performance over their last 3 starts. Just as hitters can get in 2 week cold or hot streaks, so can pitchers. For example you might have the Jays w/Halliday facing the D Rays w/Kazmir and the Jays are at home. Line is Jays -175 or so as the D Rays suck and the Jays behind Halliday are tough.
Hold on a minute. Halliday is only 1-2 with a 5.45 ERA last 3 times out while Kazmir is 2-1, 2.65 ERA last 3. I'll bite on the hotter pitcher at that price....
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Originally posted by Meestermike View Post1-Run Game Plays: Going against the winner OR loser of a 1-run game when they play their next game on the road against a different opponent.
Will have to dig for the exact #'s on this one but it has run over 65% during past seasons.
My question is....do the games have to be on consecutive days? Or can there be an off day in between?
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