Stats for Handicapping MLB

[Jerbeek]

I would like to hear everyone's thoughts on what they use for thier MLB handicapping. A couple of stats that I use are team batting average and bullpen WHIP, if a team has better offense and better BP then they have a godd shot at winning IMO.

[Silver & Black]

team batting average against righties / lefties
average pitch count / innings and bullpen EX: Brad Penny throws a ton of pitches, somewhere in the 100-110 range for 6 innings has been his average. If the pen is struggling, I'll play against Penny, especially if the line is in his favor.

Jer - you would love "Betting Baseball" 2007 edition by Michael Murray. it's an easy read and there is so much info in it that you'll need a yellow highlighter and two weeks to go over it... :thumbs:

[Jerbeek]

I got his book from 2006, I assume it is pretty much the same info.

[Meestermike]

Here are a couple of basis things I utilize:

F/A Ratio .0+
One calculates the F/A (For & Against) Ratio for each team by dividing the Runs For / Runs Against.
For example, a past game between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers looked like follows:

TEX - RF = 5.42
TEX - RA = 6.48

DET - RF = 4.74
DET - RA = 5.19

TEX 5.42/6.48 = 0.82
DET 4.74/5.19 = 0.91

In the second step, one subtracts the results for both teams:

TEX: 0.82-0.91 = -0.09; DET: 0.91-0.82 = +0.09.

A team that has a value of >0 and which Money Line is not lower than -150, you have a play. (for this calculation's purpose: -160 is less than -150)

F/A Median 1.5+
This serves as an additional criteria. The calculation goes at follows: (RunsAgainst – 4.70) + (Runs For – 4.80).
If the value is 1.50 or higher this is a play.
Again, the Money Line should be -150 or better.
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Total of 10 or more, Bet the over where the ML for the home team is between +125 and -125
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HH-games (HH = higher/higher) are games where both teams' defense has allowed more runs than the opposition's offense has scored.
Last year, the "HH"-dogs scored +58.87 units.
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[Dutch Goose]

Here are a couple of basis things I utilize:

One calculates the F/A (For & Against) Ratio for each team by dividing the RunsFor / RunsAgainst.
For example, a past game between the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers looked like follows:

TEX - RF = 5.42
TEX - RA = 6.48

DET - RF = 4.74
DET - RA = 5.19

TEX 5.42/6.48 = 0.82
DET 4.74/5.19 = 0.91

In the second step, one subtracts the results for both teams:

TEX: 0.82-0.91 = -0.09; DET: 0.91-0.82 = +0.09.

A team that has a value of >0 and which Money Line is not lower than -150, you have a play. (for this calculation's purpose: -160 is less than -150)

Good Stuff :thumbs:

[Jerbeek]

Nice info Mike! Do you use season stats or something different like last 10 games?

[rjp]

There are so many stats that it can be tough to find the right ones, but Murray's book will help you. Yes, the formulas are pretty much the same from what I remember.

[Meestermike]

Nice info Mike! Do you use season stats or something different like last 10 games?

I do both season stats and the teams' past 2 series-L6\7 games. Sometimes I also look at the division series between both as a weight factor.
Location does factor into it later in the season but only if the numbers are lopsided to one team.

I also use home and road win% to create a win% edge for the game. Some teams are crappy OTR and others are way over priced at home. Lots of live

[anjac]

Pitching info....Teams Batting avg......Fly ball to Ground ball ratio ....also Stolen bases against that days pitcher

[Daddy Diego]

Stat categories I've drawn fond of over the past few years....

Batting AVG/SLG vs. R/L
Batting AVG/SLG @ Home/Specific Away Ballpark
Starting Pitchers GB/FB Ratio
Bullpen ERA L5
Runs For/Against in L10
*Any of these in a previous matchup at the same stadium are key.


Try and work those into what ever formula you got goin and see how it does.

-DD :beerbang:

[Meestermike]

1-Run Game Plays: Going against the winner OR loser of a 1-run game when they play their next game on the road against a different opponent.

Will have to dig for the exact #'s on this one but it has run over 65% during past seasons.

[wsox08]

are there any particular websites that you use to track the info?

[Meestermike]

are there any particular websites that you use to track the info?

No, I use an excel spreadsheet and input the game data myself from different websites

[redsfann]

Once the pitchers have had 4-5 starts, one of the key things I look at with starting pitchers is their performance over their last 3 starts. Just as hitters can get in 2 week cold or hot streaks, so can pitchers. For example you might have the Jays w/Halliday facing the D Rays w/Kazmir and the Jays are at home. Line is Jays -175 or so as the D Rays suck and the Jays behind Halliday are tough.
Hold on a minute. Halliday is only 1-2 with a 5.45 ERA last 3 times out while Kazmir is 2-1, 2.65 ERA last 3. I'll bite on the hotter pitcher at that price....

[Stifler's Mom]

1-Run Game Plays: Going against the winner OR loser of a 1-run game when they play their next game on the road against a different opponent.

Will have to dig for the exact #'s on this one but it has run over 65% during past seasons.

Interesting. So you're saying to play against any team who played in a 1 run game, weather home or away, and no matter if they won or lost that game, and are now on the road (or still on the road if they already were) and are playing a different team?

My question is....do the games have to be on consecutive days? Or can there be an off day in between?