***UDoggie's Conference Championships***

[Stifler's Mom]

I know the line opened alot higher for Jackson (bigger dog), and has dropped significantly. Weather it's alot of public action or not, I don't know.

In any case, the main difference here from what I understand is that this is only Jackson's second fight in the octagon, which is much different than fighting in a traditional ring, in that if you get on the ropes in the ring, they break it up and start again in the middle, where as in a cage, you can get pushed up against it with nowhere to go and just get pounded on.

Chuck is far more experienced in the octagon, so one would have to think that would provide him with at least somewhat of an advantage.

I WISH i could see opening lines and public numbers on this to try and figure out exactly how big the line move was, and how much of the public is on Jackson.

As far as the NBA game (lol), I'll be on the Jazz and the under as well. Public is pounding the crap out of SA moneyline (85% or more), as I expected....and the over/under seems WAY too high. I doubt the Spurs will continue to shoot like they have so far at home, but I know they will play good defense no matter where they play, which tells me under....and I already stated before why I like the Jazz to win tonight at home, so no need to babble into that again, lol

Nice to see you joined in on Utah UD :beerbang:

GL tonight UD! I'm kickin my own ass right now because I like that 1st quarter line a lot better than the jazz ML i already layed. Think I might parlay the 1st quarter with rampage tonight, did anyone see how he whooped liddell last time? I know that was like 4 yrs ago, but +160 seems like good value.

[homedawg]

GL UD...:beerbang:

[Underdog88]

adding...


Jazz-1 1stq-105

Jazz-128 gm


2 units each

[emv01]

I wish some more Idiots would come in here and post their 45 Unit plays so I know to automatically play the other side.. Ha bet his units are $1... But seriously can you post ur pic Udogg..WTF how does someone even ask that?..LMAO...I don't know where these dudes keep coming from or why they keep coming but Kevin should start a forum for all the people that have been banned..A nice place where they can all go to ******* bother eachother..The top Moderater would have to be Joshknows though...:nuts:

On a serious note...I really wanna play the Jazz tomm and agree with Stif, but I am having serious trouble pullin the trigger against the Spurs with the way they are playing against Utah..Wondering what your thoughts were on that?

[Underdog88]

I like that 8 point tease, but I think the game will go over 198, the jazz are intent on fouling till the end and trying to score. The spurs will bring it in game three and the game might even go to over time. Plus the jazz like to run being at home I see there tempo being implied. Game will go high

Sweet, I'd drop another 45 units on that beyooooootch:beerbang:

[Shamrock]

Hey UDogg,

great work, capped the game real well. I tailed you on the under, teased cavs and under and then took some bases for a great night. much appreciated.

sham........

[SammyJ]

Love that under, mainly cause whats his face is on the over for 45 Units LMAO..GL

who is on it for 45 units???

[Underdog88]

I'm gonna say Detroit wins 82-79.

Close enough :gulp:

[Thenextworldc]

like

I like that 8 point tease, but I think the game will go over 198, the jazz are intent on fouling till the end and trying to score. The spurs will bring it in game three and the game might even go to over time. Plus the jazz like to run being at home I see there tempo being implied. Game will go high

[emv01]

Love that under, mainly cause whats his face is on the over for 45 Units LMAO..GL

[Low]

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I wouldn't say it's a bad line, per say, because the Jazz do have to win and cover the 2 points (more than likely it will be -1 or a pickem by gametime if i figure on the public correctly), but I do think the line is in my favor, and not only did I think so before the line was released, but the oddsmakers seem to be confirming my thoughts by releasing the line they did.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

The way I think of it, "the public" doesn't really include someone like myself, who tends to think "outside the box", and go against the popular opinion 80-90% of the time (less in baseball and hockey for obvious reasons). I mean yes, everyone's bets are included in the public percentage, however, when there are 70-80% on one side, that is a strong public opinion towards that team, any way you slice it. Out of the other 20%, you got guys like myself who will fade the public opinion, and those who actually see thru the smoke and mirrors and realize the anti-public side is probably the correct one.

The way I look at it is like this....go down to the local corner bar or mens league at the local bowling center and ask them if they'd take SA -2 or Utah +2 in game 3. You'll have your public opinion, and I'm guessing at least 7 of 10 would take the Spurs at that line.....except I don't have to do that because sports insights tells me the percentages right from the comfort of my computer, lol.

In a case like this, assuming the public is at the very least split (i have no percentages yet, but I am going to guess there are going to be 65-70% minimum on the Spurs as a dog), and barring a huge line move in the Spurs favor, suggesting possible sharp opinion on the spurs along with the public (which is rare), I have to do no more than what I've already stated to come up with a play on Utah that will win far more often than it loses, based on the oddsmakers opinion alone.

IMHO if the oddsmakers felt the Spurs were the play, they would be favored instead of the Jazz. It's not like Utah +2 would draw an overload of public action, lol. Plus, the Jazz were in the neighborhood of +7 both games at SA. The public was all over the Spurs in game 1, although only slightly in game 2. Nevertheless, if a standard home court advantage is 3 points (which is it NOT, especially in a situation like this one), then you would have about Utah +4 here.

I mean I know that you know as well as I do that this in no way means the Jazz are guaranteed to win or cover, but with all these factors, it's going to be the winning side far more often than not....and often when it loses, it's because something "flukey" happens, rarely because the public side just comes out and kicks the crap out of the anti-public side. In no way do I expect the Spurs to come out and dominate game 3 start to finish and cover with ease.

Of course, none of this works if the side you expect to be favored, IS favored.....unless it's a side that looks like a blowout winner and they're only like -2. But what I'm saying, is that if the line looks pretty decent, yet there is still a public overload on the fave, the strong advantage of fading the public goes out the window, since there is only so much the oddsmakers can do to try and even out the action, and in some cases they're still going to get a public overload on one side, and those are the cases where they'll win some and lose some, but of course, they have the -110 juice in their favor, where we do not, plus an infinite bankroll, so they'll end up being fine.

I'd like to thank you guys for the whole thread.I found it very informative and have learned from it. Enjoyed reading the quote above by Stifler's Mom,and Underdog88's reason for betting the under on spurs. Goodluck on your wagers.

[Underdog88]

Thursday


Clev/Det u174.5

3 units


Cavs+1.5 1stq

1 unit


8 pt tease

Cavs+13
Clev/Det u182
Spurs+10
Sa/Utah u198

$200 to win $240



Saturday


Utah/Sa u190

8 units


Will also be on the Jazz 1stq when it becomes available- IMO they get the lead early & it becomes tight as the game goes on.....


I expect another defensive game tonight, no other team defends LeBron as well as Detroit, IMO. Prince is very effective defensively, & they were good at bringing help over game 1. Despite the 10 pts scored, IMO James had a solid game- 10 pts 10 rebs, 9 assists is nothing to shake a stick at, 0 fts is a cause for concern. IMO he will be looking to drive a bit more tonight, & I expect him to be in the post more as well. 174.5 is a tight number, but I really expect points to be at a premium tonight. Does anyone think either team will be looking to push the ball? I don't, so to me the only way this goes over is ot, or both teams shoot a high %. I'm gonna say Detroit wins 82-79. Couldn't bring myself to play the Cavs straight, as I think it will be very tough to pull a win out in Detroit, therefore 5.5 is a tossup to me. I will likely be on the Cavs for game 3 though...


Saturday's game is going to be interesting, IMO. They say the series doesn't start until a team gets the road win....well this is the whole series for Utah. If they drop game 3, I think they go down in 5. The Spurs are 2-1 su as dogs in the playoffs, winning su @ Phx twice. The Jazz are 6-0 at home in the playoffs, but this is the Spurs- not GS or Houston. Still, I do get the feeling the Jazz will pull out a close one- However, it's my opinion that the under provides the most value....


On the road, the Spurs tend to play lower scoring games... they buckle down, play tight defensively & wear teams down. Here are the playoff totals of the Spurs on the road this year...


Game 3 @ Den 187

Game 4 @ Den 185

Game 1 @ Phx 217

Game 2 @ Phx 182

Game 5 @ Phx 173


So in 5 games played on the road, we have 1 game were the total exceeded 187- and these were games vs uptempo teams looking to push the ball. Although Utah can get on the break, I would expect Sloan to want to establish Boozer in the paint early. Sloan knows that's the only way they win, & Boozer isn't getting as many easy cleanup buckets this series with Duncan & Co hitting the boards. He will have to work. Here are the totals to regular season games in which the Spurs were dogs...


@ Dallas.......176

@ Detroit......171

@ Phoenix.....190

@ Utah.........158

@ Dallas.......188


While I must stress that I don't put too much stock in regular season outcomes when it comes to the playoffs, in this case it may provide a glimpse into how the Spurs prefer road games to be played....That's all I got for now, will discuss as the game approaches :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

I too use this way of thinking, more so in football than anywhere else, & I also look to find reasons as to why the line is set where it is. The Jazz are 6-0 at home in the playoffs (5-0-1 ats) The Jazz did win both meetings @ home in the regular season, once as 2 pt faves & once as 5 pt dogs. They are 4-2 su last 3 seasons at home vs the Spurs...not one of these games were blowouts. The Jazz wins were by 8, 4, 1 & 2pts. I know 3 years is going back too far to really put any stock into, just interesting to me.

IMO there will be sharps on either side of this game, but I could be wrong. I could sit here & list reasons why I think the Spurs are the play, then post a bunch more on why I think the Jazz are the play. Fact of the matter is I think it will likely be close, & the way the Spurs are playing I would rather not play against them. That being said I think the Jazz are the "smart" play too :hugegrin:

[Stifler's Mom]

Actually, I cap alot of my games like this, especially in football and basketball. I value the oddsmakers opinion far more than anything else that I could possibly use in capping a game.

I wouldn't say it's a bad line, per say, because the Jazz do have to win and cover the 2 points (more than likely it will be -1 or a pickem by gametime if i figure on the public correctly), but I do think the line is in my favor, and not only did I think so before the line was released, but the oddsmakers seem to be confirming my thoughts by releasing the line they did.

I can see no way Utah was released as a fave, with the oddsmakers or books expecting equal public action, or even anything nearly close to it. It was done either to get a ton of public action on SA to offset possible sharp money on Utah, OR to keep sharps completely OFF Utah if they were released as a dog (and off the side in that game all together), and the books will take their chances with more action on SA, or a combination of the two.

The way I think of it, "the public" doesn't really include someone like myself, who tends to think "outside the box", and go against the popular opinion 80-90% of the time (less in baseball and hockey for obvious reasons). I mean yes, everyone's bets are included in the public percentage, however, when there are 70-80% on one side, that is a strong public opinion towards that team, any way you slice it. Out of the other 20%, you got guys like myself who will fade the public opinion, and those who actually see thru the smoke and mirrors and realize the anti-public side is probably the correct one.

The way I look at it is like this....go down to the local corner bar or mens league at the local bowling center and ask them if they'd take SA -2 or Utah +2 in game 3. You'll have your public opinion, and I'm guessing at least 7 of 10 would take the Spurs at that line.....except I don't have to do that because sports insights tells me the percentages right from the comfort of my computer, lol.

In a case like this, assuming the public is at the very least split (i have no percentages yet, but I am going to guess there are going to be 65-70% minimum on the Spurs as a dog), and barring a huge line move in the Spurs favor, suggesting possible sharp opinion on the spurs along with the public (which is rare), I have to do no more than what I've already stated to come up with a play on Utah that will win far more often than it loses, based on the oddsmakers opinion alone.

IMHO if the oddsmakers felt the Spurs were the play, they would be favored instead of the Jazz. It's not like Utah +2 would draw an overload of public action, lol. Plus, the Jazz were in the neighborhood of +7 both games at SA. The public was all over the Spurs in game 1, although only slightly in game 2. Nevertheless, if a standard home court advantage is 3 points (which is it NOT, especially in a situation like this one), then you would have about Utah +4 here.

I mean I know that you know as well as I do that this in no way means the Jazz are guaranteed to win or cover, but with all these factors, it's going to be the winning side far more often than not....and often when it loses, it's because something "flukey" happens, rarely because the public side just comes out and kicks the crap out of the anti-public side. In no way do I expect the Spurs to come out and dominate game 3 start to finish and cover with ease.

Of course, none of this works if the side you expect to be favored, IS favored.....unless it's a side that looks like a blowout winner and they're only like -2. But what I'm saying, is that if the line looks pretty decent, yet there is still a public overload on the fave, the strong advantage of fading the public goes out the window, since there is only so much the oddsmakers can do to try and even out the action, and in some cases they're still going to get a public overload on one side, and those are the cases where they'll win some and lose some, but of course, they have the -110 juice in their favor, where we do not, plus an infinite bankroll, so they'll end up being fine.