Week 3 Discussion

[homedawg]

let me just clear my throat::puke:


Before setting a Line, Understand:

The linesmakers, are group of people, that will go out and gather all the same information, that we look at, when capping, a game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Then they will factor in: jp likes favs & overs...

most importantly:


HOW DOES JP FEEL THIS WEEK!!!!

perception is the key.... think about everything that has happened over the last week,

or since the start of the season,

and your thougts, and the results!


I bet you are gonna change your perception, on those thoughts, by the end of the season!



:drunk:

[Skinsfan]

what i find interesting is that so many people takes these websites (like SI) for their word, even though the books are lining their pockets to publish the numbers that the books determine.... let's make something perfectly clear.... the books are smarter than the rest of us..... we should all know that by now.... yet, all of a sudden, they have become so stupid as to allow a loophole into the system? And concurrently the free market, which has always been very efficient, can't find even water.... arbitrage is a bitch guys.... if simply fading public numbers was profitable, it would have been exploited a very long time ago, and corrected by natural market forces.... this phenomenon is prevelant in all financial markets... stock markert, currencies, any sort of physical product... everything. RJB is dead right on that.

[Skinsfan]

by the way, meant to add.... buddy of mine at work... his local told him that Seattle is getting hammered through him, and he'll be offsetting his action online.... pretty different story than what SI wants you to believe.... he also said he cant find a soul to bet on Arizona.... then again, I live in the DC metro area (close to Baltimore) so that kind of makes sense, imo

[homedawg]

It's not about fadin' the public..... Just bet with the books!


:toss:

[Stifler's Mom]

You guys who disagree with me are still missing the point.

It is not about blindly fading the public, and I never said I do so, or suggested anyone else does that.

It's about capping games from the starting point of being against the public, and going from there. It gives us (meaning those of us who are anti public players) a starting point to work from when looking for perspective plays.

For example, finding games where the line is in our favor due to heavy public action, trying to identify sharp money, trying to find what the public is "missing" and why the line is "so low". If you can't find any of these things, you don't bet it, even if it's anti-public.

At the same time, if i find myself liking a public side, I must ask myself, what might I be missing? And I have to be assured by myself that there is nothing before making the public play.

As far as the "loophole" in the system....

Ever think that maybe the sportsbooks might report their public percentages because they WELCOME some anti-public action? Remember, they're looking for balance.

Also, S.I. doesn't get this info for free. I'm sure these's a fee they pay each book they get info from.

More anti-public action to offset the public, and a fee from S.I. (and the other similar sites out there) = money for the sportsbook.

And, just take this site for example, where there are far more square players than anti-public ones. And this is supposed to be a site where more informed sports betters gather. The percentage of square players can only go UP amongst regular Joe's who are out there making bets on all of these games....and believe me, there are alot more of them than you all probably realize. I'm a mail carrier, and believe me when I tell you how many people receive "free gifts" and tons of advertisements from different sportsbooks. People you'd never expect too. AKA Joe Q Public.

It's kinda unfair and frustrating how so many keep questioning the method that I use to find my plays, saying it's a myth and that it's wrong, just because it's something you don't see as useful.

I don't question any of yours.

[Underdog88]

You guys who disagree with me are still missing the point.

It is not about blindly fading the public, and I never said I do so, or suggested anyone else does that.

It's about capping games from the starting point of being against the public, and going from there. It gives us (meaning those of us who are anti public players) a starting point to work from when looking for perspective plays.

For example, finding games where the line is in our favor due to heavy public action, trying to identify sharp money, trying to find what the public is "missing" and why the line is "so low". If you can't find any of these things, you don't bet it, even if it's anti-public.

At the same time, if i find myself liking a public side, I must ask myself, what might I be missing? And I have to be assured by myself that there is nothing before making the public play.

IMO limiting yourself to just one angle won't ever be profitable .... Blindly fading the public, Following just trends, stats, probablities etc. Looking at games from all angles & finding reasons as to why lines are set where they are is the best way. I guess you gotta stick to whatever works for you. If you are successful with a particular capping style, why change it? I know the way you've been capping works well in the NFL, so there is no reason to question it. :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Stif :beerbang:

I don't think you were referring to me, cause I wasn't knocking your capping style, and I was just giving my angle on some of the specific games you mentioned that I have action on...but I'll say I know you use many different angles when capping a game, and you have always stated that the public action is only a starting point for you! You've stated that many a time.

GL this weekend! :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

IMO limiting yourself to just one angle won't ever be profitable .... Blindly fading the public, Following just trends, stats, probablities etc. Looking at games from all angles & finding reasons as to why lines are set where they are is the best way. I guess you gotta stick to whatever works for you. If you are successful with a particular capping style, why change it? I know the way you've been capping works well in the NFL, so there is no reason to question it. :thumbs:

:thumbs:

[rjp]

Stif, I have no issue with people finding teams that are undervalued by understanding how the public bets. If you can get an off-market price then you're going to profit off the long term.

I simply wanted to point out that the math behind the theory of "laying the points if you feel the team will win" is flawed. Taking the underdog money line is a whole different matter, as a lot of these are shaded to the favorite so even in an efficient market there is value with taking the money line.

[Skinsfan]

wow looks like public went 3-2-1 with 1 pending.... yikes

[homedawg]

wow looks like public went 3-2-1 with 1 pending.... yikes

:conf: JP had a hard-on for INDY & San Diego early, then came back with Denver & Washington late?????


JP 0-4 ats & 1-3ml

[Skinsfan]

:conf: JP had a hard-on for INDY & San Diego early, then came back with Denver & Washington late?????


JP 0-4 ats & 1-3ml

ehhhh.... was referring to THIS thread.... and the 7 teams mentioned in THIS thread.... 4-2-1

[Rothko]

I go against the public when it comes to the NFL! It's no revolutionary system by any means but I have been successful with it so far!

I don't get to specific or too scientific because I truly believe you can overload yourself with too many facts, trends, theories, urban legends, whatever....

...AND (this is going to sound elementary) there is a fair amount of luck involved with gambling! You can crunch numbers, study stats, weigh the odds, observe the weather, etc....AND still something can happen during a game at such a pivotal moment you can't believe your eyes! I have been on both sides of that spectrum and there was no way I could have predicted those moments before the game!

FLIP A COIN VS CAPPING - A strong argument could be made on both sides!

The point I'm trying (unsuccessfully) to make is we gamble and cap because we love sports...mainly football! I love trying to figure out the public plays and going against them! I love trying to find that one gift the book gives us that eludes so many gamblers! I love seeing "oh by the ways" that cover for me! I love winning with "blow outs" and "no sweaters!"

Of course, I hate fckn losing under those circumstances as well! LMAO!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

ehhhh.... was referring to THIS thread.... and the 7 teams mentioned in THIS thread.... 4-2-1

yeah...that's what I thought you meant....wasn't sure what HD was getting at :dunno:
And that 4-2-1 included Zona & Dallas :thumbs:

[homedawg]

ehhhh.... was referring to THIS thread.... and the 7 teams mentioned in THIS thread.... 4-2-1

:beerbang: Ooooohhhhhhhhhh I see now... I was referring to the hardest hit games :drunk: