***NFL Week 6 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Let's seperate the winners from the losers here... Homedogs first


KC+3 vs Cincy

Jets+3 vs Philly

Cowboys+4 vs. NE

Falcons+3.5 vs NYG






Without really having looked too hard, I like the Boys & Atlanta. The Jets won't be getting any of my money after last week's debacle, but I certainly wouldn't play on Philly. I have to look into the Cincy/KC game a bit more, as IMO that could be a nice over play. 2 bad defenses there, but LJ doesn't seem too into it this season. Aside from that, I lean Titans+3 vs. TB. TB lacks a run game, which Tenn. would likely shut down anyway. I like to play against teams that are already 1 dimensional, IMO the Titans come away with the win there..... would like to hear Horfy's opinion on that one. Back with more thoughts in a bit......

[Horfin]

At first blush I like new england.....But I haven't looked at anything.

[Queen]

Sun 10/14 225 New England Patriots -4 -109
01:15 PM 226 Dallas Cowboys +4 +101

Here you go money already pouring in on NE. I know there were people standing there this morning waiting to play NE over cowboys bad playing at BUF.

The winner of this game will win by 3 or less or the Cowboys will blow them out. It will not be a NE blow out.

Take the cowboys.

Unless this changes from now until Sunday. I will keep ya posted on where the money is going. Play againist the public and you will cash in.

[Horfin]

Re: Tenn and TB

I think Tenn is due for a let down. They have dominated (maybe too strong of a word) Jax and Atlanta and New Orleans (and cheated to beat Indy). Problem is they barely beat Jax and Atlanta. The play calling has been truly questionable. One important factor in this game is the back to back road games for Tenn. Good teams can win 2 of the back:back. Average teams win 1 and bad teams lose both. You have to think of the two games (TB and Houston), they can win 1 (and maybe two). Usually you wait until the first one is over and bet the opposite in the 2nd if you can't decide before hand. Example: Lose to TB then play on Tenny at Houston.

The only problem I have with UD statement is that I feel Tenn is as close to being 1 dimensional as you can without really being one-dimensional. Young hasn't developed yet into a passer. They win games because of Brown/White and Youngs feet. The passing game just helps a little bit to make it not so boring. I'll look deeper into it about TB defense, but the OL of tenny is AWESOME. If anything is making the games clsoe in Tenn games it is the QB play and the playcalling.

Horfin

[Horfin]

Beat Indy = Cover the spread.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

None of those homedogs really jump out at me except Atlanta...although it is far from a favourite play on the card....it will likely be a play because it is the Monday Nighter. We'll see.

Not a great week for me at first glance, but 4 Games I like are:

Titans All about the running game in this one, which usually is the benchmark for a winning team. Tenn is awesome on the ground, TB is down to their 3rd string RB with the injury to Williams and now Pittman. TB's defence also gives up alot of yards on the ground (10th worst in the league), which could mean trouble. Tenn is getting it done with only one loss close in Indy, and getting a FG makes me happy as this team just plain covers (13-3 ATS last 16). I'll take this road-dog plus a FG. TB got blown out in both of their games against quality opponents this year (Sea/IND), and their wins against bottom-feeders STL/NO/CAR, giving them a winning record really doesn't impress me. This is a .500 team at best, and with their bread-and-butter running game in serious trouble, I think the wrong team is favoured here. How can Tenn be favoured by 9, then a dog getting 3 against two similar teams in b2b weeks? Tenn defence also playing well (ranked 5th). I would have taken the Titans -3, so I'm happy with the road dog. Got this one in early at +3.

Rams How on earth can that Ravens offence be laying 10 points? They have scored 22 points in their last 2 games, and have their two best receivers hobbled and less than 100% (Heap/Mason). We'll also see if Odgen and Rolle play for the Ravens, but they also look less than 100% too. I mean...Baltimore's offence does not cover small lines let alone Doble-Digits! They are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a fav, 1-4 in their last 5 games at home, and 0-6 in their last 6 games overall? I know the perception is that the Rams suck, and they are not a great team, but no way should the Ravens be expected to cover this many points. They couldn't cover a measly 4 against the worst offensive team in the NFL last week! Rams look to be getting Isaac Bruce back for Frerotte who actually was able to put up alot of points last week. I'll most likely be on the Rams getting DD, pending all of those injury status reports on both sides.

Skins I think the Pack loses 2 in a row after the nice storybook start for Farve. Liking 3.5 points for a hot team really looking like it's putting things together.

Browns I'll lay the points for this home fav...Miami blows, and now has lost their starting QB. Browns have lost to 2 elite teams in Pit&NE, but are a team with lots of offensive weapons, play well at home (wins over Bal&Cin), and I think they roll over Miami by DD. Looks like injuries Jamal Lewis and Jeravicious are minor.

Anyway...those are 4 I will likely be on this week (Im on Tenn already), barring any kind of big injury news either way, it what looks to be a smaller week for me.

Thoughts?

[Stifler's Mom]

TEN/TB

The Titans are the biggest "set up" play on the card IMO.

I don't even need to look to know the public is going to be all over this sexy 3-1 underdog.....that probably should have lost @ home to ATL 2 days ago.

TB's wins may not be impressive, but are Tennessee's? New Orleans and Atlanta?

TEN always plays Indy tough, and Indy never blows anyone out on the road. They also covered that in the back door, being down by 9 and getting a late TD.

Yes, they beat JAX on the road, but JAX played HORRIBLE in that game, and if there's one thing I've learned throughout my years of NFL handicapping, it's to toss week 1 right out the window. For an example, BUF beat (and shut out) NE a couple years at home like 31-0....and then NE went on to steamroll everyone the rest of the year, while BUF didn't make the playoffs.....so I don't put much weight into the ONE decent win for TEN.

Also, maybe Tampa's defense is USED TO stopping a QB with running skills (Vick), seeings as how they used to face him twice a year? You stop Young and make him a pocket passer, and TEN isn't going to score much.

It boils down to this for me.....if the oddsmakers wanted even action public here, the line would be TEN +2.5 or less. They're begging you to take the FG with TEN....as if it's going to matter, and once again the public is obliging (73% on TEN). I don't see the public doing an about face on this one and backing TB as the week goes on, and the public backing a road DOG this strongly is about the biggest red flag you can find, worse than them backing a road fave by far.

NE/DAL is interesting. Problem is Dallas is once again in a piss poor spot, off an emotional MNF win, having to play an always well prepared team....and one who is probably better than them, on a short week.

DAL has homefield though, and NE is IMO STILL untested.

I'll be rooting for DAL, but I don't know if they get my money come Sunday.

ATL IMO wins outright on MNF. I absolutely love ATL +3.5, and it is probably my favorite play of the weekend. This is the letdown game for NYG, and the one in which they get exposed as being overrated, not the game last week against "Noodle Arm the Jets"

KC +3 Bungles have lost 6 of their last 7 games (dating back to last season), have not much defense and really ****ty special teams, and yet again they're a road fave with Joe Pub backing them at 90%, LOL. When is Joe Q going to wise up and stop putting themselves in losing situations with CIN?

OAK +10 is a joke too. No way that line should be over a TD. Just because SD beat one of the worst teams in football (DEN), now all of a sudden they're supposed to be shellacking everyone again? Doubtful. This one goes down to the wire IMO, and an OAK outright win certainly isn't out of the question with the way they're rushing the football (190+ YPG), and that they have a quality defense. Only way SD covers this line is a ton of OAK turnovers.

Other notes of interest. I find it hilarious how the public has fallen in love with Arizona this year, when you couldn't find a f'n public sole to back them for like the last 10 years. With that being said, they're probably right this week. CAR sucks bad, and I sure don't see them pulling the outright win on the road 2 weeks in a row. I might join Joe Q on this one, and really, they're only at 61%, which isn't bad. It's just odd to see the public ON Arizona 2 weeks in a row.

And the Browns? WTF? A -4.5 fave? LOL. Might not play Miami, (only because I don't necessarily care for the spot they're in this week) but how the heck could someone lay -4.5 with the Browns? That game is screaming no play IMO.

And WTF with Washington/GB? Joe Pub is all over WASH +3 (68%). How quickly they give up on Favre I guess. I wouldn't be shocked to see more GB backers file in as the week goes on though, and I'm not completely sold on either side of that game....yet. More research needed. I was just noting how Joe Pub jumps off the bandwagon (or on in some cases) so easily.

[Daws1089]

JML

first let me say that i agree with your assessment of baltimore, but heap will be fine this week and mason entered the game after being injured last week so there shouldnt be any issues there. But the more important issues are that mike flynn the center, and adam terry the right tackle both were injured. This only makes things worse for their o-line who has been without ogden and now is missing two other key starters. However their backups Ben grubbs and chris chester this could be a blessing in disguise. Samari Rolle's infection has not been cooperating so i dont even know if he will be available for this week. How Baltimore can lay double digits this week after not even scoring double digits last week is beyond me. Frerotte threw with success on arizona and he should have some success against baltimore too because the balt. defense is not the same as it was as all of their "old" players are starting to show their age and they are clearly on the decline. Trevor Pryce, Ray Lewis, Rolle, and Ogden and McNair on offense. One last note, this team would be a lot better if Kyle Boller just ran the offense, McNair is more injured than he'd care to admit.


One problem I'm having is how in the heck is Cincy favored on the road against anyone? A very tough environment to play in at arrowhead and cincy isnt exactly a stellar road team. They are worn thin at LB which gonzalez should expose, and Rudi Johnson could be out again this week. Seems like KC should be favored by 3.


Public already hammering NE as the line is up to +4.5. Dallas could barely beat the Bills, NE should kill them cuz they killed the bills.. Right? I wouldn't say that just yet. I don't know what it is, but something has me thinking cowgirls in this one.

Also, is Oakland really that bad that they need to be 10 pt dogs to SD who wins one game convincingly and is suddenly given all this credit like they are back to last years status. Oakland is fighting for first place in that division and with 2 weeks to prepare, division game, I think Oakland can be right there with SD.

[Skinsfan]

And WTF with Washington/GB? Joe Pub is all over WASH +3 (68%). How quickly they give up on Favre I guess. I wouldn't be shocked to see more GB backers file in as the week goes on though, and I'm not completely sold on either side of that game....yet. More research needed. I was just noting how Joe Pub jumps off the bandwagon (or on in some cases) so easily.

Hmmm.... imho, it's not so much people jumping off the Favre bandwagon.... I think it's more akin to your comments on San Diego... people see team A blow out team B and they autmoatically want to bet on Team A next week.... action is probably a severe overreaction to Skins 31 pt victory.... IMO, from a more fundamental POV, the line looks about right. I will say this.... Skins defense is SICK... and GB is very similar to Detroit... pass first team, which the Skins defensed perfectly.

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree with you Skins. At first glace, I considered backing WASH +3 there too....but then again, I've been saying GB is a fluke all season. I just need to look into that one more to find some solid reasons to play the game....or not to.

I also agree that the line there is right....with WSH +3 saying the 2 teams are evenly matched, and GB having the "standard" 3 pt homefield advantage, which at the very least is what each team's record would indicate, so for that reason, I do see the line as accurate.

It's our job to decide if that's true or not.

[bookiekilla]

Falcons +3.5...and this one is not a homer play...atleast not completely...everyone one and their mom in Atlanta thinks the falcons are done..all the talk here is how they're going to get blown out on MOnday night, and how the giants are going to sack Harrington on every other play, etc.......don't know why, but I still think this falcons team is not as bad as their record indicates...they easily be 3-2 instead of 1-4...hell, they could be 4-1....i've watched everygame, and they've had a shot to realistically win every single game in the 4th quarter, except the 1st one....IMO, Harrington getting benched might have been good for him...people were making him out to be the 2nd coming of Brady and manning after putting up back to back good weeks...this might light a fire under his ass again, like the initial signing of Leftwich did...either way, the word is that Leftwich is going to get more reps with the 1st team during this week's practice and if Harrington struggles early, don't be suprised by a quick hook by Petrino..whoever the QB, the falcons win this one straight up on Monday night...the giants might sack Harrington a few times, but dont be suprised if Eli is hurried / hit all night long by John Abraham and Jamal Anderson...also, this week marks the return of Rod Colemon to the Falcons front 4...and believe me, that makes a HUGE difference...he's been a beast the last few years on the falcons Dline..this is going to open free up Abraham and Anderson on the outside to get even more pressure on Manning...I love getting the 3.5, and will be playing them on the ml as well....now all this couldn't mean ****, and I could be looking at it with my falcons blinders on

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

LOL...Stif hammers my teams every week in this thread! :beerbang:


Daws...thanks for the info on the Ravens....good stuff.

That KC game is interesting too...good info, guys :thumbs:
Thnking about it, but everyone here liked them last week at home too...

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL, sorry JML. It's certainly nothing personal, or intentional....we just see things differently most of the time :beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

LOL, sorry JML. It's certainly nothing personal, or intentional....we just see things differently most of the time :beerbang:

lol...I know :beerbang:

We each have to do what we feel is right, and hopefully it works out.
ATL was my 5th play though, and now I'm on it for sure because of you.

Bookie...thanks for the ATL info!

I just think the Browns as a small fav isn't a joke. They have played well all year, even decent against NE...and at home they will win that game, and like you say yourself quite a bit, that usually means cover. If you think its a joke, that means you like MIA to win outright on the road, in a tough stadium to play, with their backup QB, facing a good offense? I was actually following your pick a winner theory on that one, so I was surprised to see you be worried about 4 points.

Tenn...I'm falling for the setup, lol....every "setup" game I've backed this year has won it seems. Much like the SD/Den...Huge advantage in the running game...especially with the TB injuries. Everything I see sets up to a Tennesee outright win....I have to go with that, not with what other people are doing, or some phantom perception of a setup.

GL everyone...

[Larry]

IMO Green Bay sets up as a good play with people overreacting to the pack losing to Chicago and Wash beating Philly. In the case of the redskins it's just like with Philly. PHilly pounds the Lions and then everyone jumps on them vs NYG. Pounding the lions at wash is no accomplishment at all. Detroit is a horrible road team with a horrible defense and a horrible offense line. Green Bay played an almost perfect half of football vs Chicago and if it wasn't for 2 fumbles would have blown the bears away by halftime. I will almost certainly be playing Favre and the Pack this week. GL!