Week 7 ~ New England at Miami Discussion

[rjp]

rjp...Id like to see a record of all these confident mathematical plays you preach! Sorry...but those posts were very cocky, man! lol The math is cool, and I like to read your insights, but they are NEVER backed up on this site with records, so I never take them too seriously, because I don't see recorded proof...I only have your insane confidence in every "value" number you list...but by my memory, it seems they lose hell of lot more than not. (lol, sorry). Not trying to dog you...but IMO your insights would be appreciated more with an actual posted record (toome anyway). I also think a capper has to take the actual teams and matchups into consideration once in a while, too dude. JMO

GL :thumbs:

My record in the NFL this year is 45-48-5 (+27.72 units; ROI: 12.60%). I haven't had the stamina to make a post here in the forum listing every bet I make, so I just chime in when I see the value. New England is on a tear and I've lost going against them most weeks (ended up with Browns +21.5 last week at adjusted odds that I won). I've also, however, been doing very well betting the quarter markets.

Not only that, but I can show you the actual bets, and I can also show you a record of my thoughts of every week with the amount I bet. I'd prefer not to get banned so I won't post a link directly, but if you seriously want to call my bluff then have a mod shoot you my e-mail address.

Give me the best team in the league on the road playing the worst team in the league and I'll bet a nice chunk every time at +17, +17.5, whatever is available.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Now is where someone has to go back, and find Cuse or FF saying "we" about one of their teams. lol!

I dont care either way, and have probably been guilty myself....just a natural thing sometimes I guess :dunno:

[CuseFan10]

I spend tons of money at the grocery store each week...so should i start saying things like "we need to get some more produce on these shelves.

When I posted that originally I was trying to think of an analogy like your outstanding grocery store one, but I blanked.

Well done FF, you put a nice little candle on a lonely birthday cupcake :toast:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

rjp...Id like to see a record of all these confident mathematical plays you preach! Sorry...but those posts were very cocky, man! lol The math is cool, and I like to read your insights, but they are NEVER backed up on this site with records, so I never take them too seriously, because I don't see recorded proof...I only have your insane confidence in every "value" number you list...but by my memory, it seems they lose hell of lot more than not. (lol, sorry). Not trying to dog you...but IMO your insights would be appreciated more with an actual posted record (toome anyway). I also think a capper has to take the actual teams and matchups into consideration once in a while, too dude. JMO

GL :thumbs:

[manmythlegend]

..so should i start saying things like "we need to get some more produce on these shelves".........

:laughing:

[GamblinMan03]

I dont bet the Pats. I have been betting against them all year until I took them Sunday.

[rjp]

So far NE has laid 17 points twice this season and on neither game did they lose.

Here's a little math: the probability of winning two straight times when you have a probability of 45% to win is: 0.45 x 0.45 = 20.25%.

Obviously within the realm of probability.

Keep betting the Pats and give me a free 17.5 :thumbs:

[GamblinMan03]

The problem here is that 17 points is too many to lay to NFL team. As such, if 17 were the TRUE odds then the team would never lose!

Stay away from the Miami money line and hammer the point spread on Sunday.

So far NE has laid 17 points twice this season and on neither game did they lose.

[rjp]

The problem here is that 17 points is too many to lay to NFL team. As such, if 17 were the TRUE odds then the team would never lose!

Stay away from the Miami money line and hammer the point spread on Sunday.

[Q-Unit]

a team down to its 3rd running back and becomes one dimensional will not be dominant. especially if it cant run the ball consistently.

they are NOT perfect no matter what anyone thinks. yes I am bitter and grasping at straws, but "we" feel they suck! LOL

hey Cuse I can use "they" right? :laughing:

[NittanyLions94]

This is the old Cuse that I remember :laughing:


And there should be another DD line on the Skins game next weekend. NFC team against AFC team(JV vs. Varsity), Skins aren't very good, and the Pats, well, are.

[FlyersFan]

That is patently ridiculous. Daniel Snyder doesn't know, or give a rat's ass, who you are. Neither does Joe Gibbs, Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley, LaRon Landry, Andre Carter, Sean Taylor, Jon Jansen, Greg Williams, Al Saunders, the equipment manager, the attendant who scans your ticket as you enter the stadium, the parking attendant, or the guys who clean the garbage in the stadium after the game is over. None of their wives (or significant "others") even know who you are - oh yea, and you don't know them either. Also, no one that works for the Redskins front office knows who you are, and no one who works for FedEx Field knows who you are either.

You are a fan, you are one insignificant (and I don't mean that personally, I'm sure you are a cool guy and all) person out of millions who root for the Redskins. You are in no way whatsoever a part of the 2007 Washington Redskins football team though.

:bang:

The only usage of "we" that is borderline acceptable when you physically aren't on the team or work for the organization is when you go to (or graduated from) a college.

couldn't agree more!! using "we" is the stupidest thing i have ever heard of, and it continues to be. I spend tons of money at the grocery store each week...so should i start saying things like "we need to get some more produce on these shelves".........there was a guy who hosted a late night sports talk show on SNR (now he is in phoenix) named bob kemp. if you called his show and used we, first he made fun of you and then hung up on you. it's freeking dumb.

and i agree on the college thing. reminds me of when Rudy wanted to be a part of ND so bad he helped paint the helmets......:laughing:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

With that said, Pats by 30 this week. I may bet against them vs the Redskins and Colts though.

I agree...I hope the Pats kill Miami by 30+ this week, so we get another decent DD line with the Skins next week!

[GamblinMan03]

Well Cuse, that is your opinion and I think you are totally wrong but I will agree to disagree.

With that said, Pats by 30 this week. I may bet against them vs the Redskins and Colts though.

[PaulM]

just like every pats game before the dallas one i dont think this one will be worth watching in the 2h..i havent looked but hopefully i can get pats 1h -10 or less and thats what ill play...pats @ ravens on a monday night i think will be their toughest game if they get through the colts still undefeated.......Any books have odds of them going undefeated? :beerbang: if so what?