***Week 7 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

Alright guys, let's shake the trees & see if some winners fall out :thumbs:


Homedogs first....


Buffalo+3.5 vs. Ravens

Dolphins+16.5 vs God's Team

Broncos+3.5 vs. Steelers

Texans+1.5 vs. Titans

Jags+3 vs. Indy



I like them. I don't think I'm going to be on the Jags, but I could see it. I've already talked about the Colts on the road generally being a bad play, but I don't like the idea of fading them off a bye week. Possibly mext week @ Car. Maybe an over play, as Jax should be able to score- 45 is high though, & MNF you know it's gonna be public. Denver's run D really scares me, but I have a feeling they keep this close. I'm gonna talk more about the Bills game tomorrow...

Plays on my radar

Rams+9.5

Eagles-4.5

Redskins-9

Pitt/Denver o39

I normally wouldn't think about chalk like the Skins game, but Rattay on the road vs. the Skins off a loss looks damn good. Mismatch in many aspects, & a great situational play too. The Bears are bad bad bad.

[OneYearWonder]

I like the Skins a lot this week, put a small play on them at -7.5 and might put more on them later this week. The only thing that is scaring me is their O line. I think 3 more lineman went down in last week's game, not sure whos playing and who will be out this week. GL with whatever you play UD!! :beerbang:

[Horfin]

I really like KC getting points at Oakland. KC is much IMO better than their 3-3 record. THey have handled SD on the Road and like last week I figured they shouuld be the fav against cincinnati and quite frankly they should have been. I support oakland whenever it makes sense and even when it doesn't because I thinkt he public is overly down on Oakland, which results usually in inflated lines. They are better than they were last year but not good enough to take down a 3-3 KC team. KC is as I said much better than their record and is potentially (DONT LAUGH) a playoff team. They had a ton of wrinkles that seem to be slowly getting ironed out. They are clearly a 8-8 or better team. Oakland is becoming better and is probably 2 years away from really being competitive again. KC gets the straight up win IMO, I'll probably play that later. I have already played them with the points.

Horfin

[hodown]

buf +3

i think buffalo is live this weekend. balt has the worst strength of schedule in the nfl, with wins over stl, zona, and nyj at home, and sf on the road. lost at cinci and at cle. buf has been very competitive at home, with losses to dallas and den by 1, and a win over nyj. road schedule has not been kind, already playing at ne and pitt. i like the points there, in what could be a low scoring game.

jax +3

similar line to what it was last year, public hammering indi at -1 i think and jax blew them out. dont expect the blowout here but think its competitive. believe the last 5 monday night games have been won by the road team, 4 of which were favs. this is definitely the best home team of the bunch. jax has played indi tight, with the last 10 all being competitive with the exception of last yrs 44-17 win by jax. garrards mobility could cause fits for indi. appears harrison and addai are back this wk, which definitely helps. ill still take the points, especially on a monday nite with pub going the other way.

den +3.5

public hammering pitt here, no surprise. pit 4-1 ats 4-1 overall, den 2-3 overall, 0-5 ats. den 1-11 ats in last 12 home games. den needs a win bad, especially after the egg they laid against sd at home 2 wks ago. den with a big edge in sos, having already played jax, indy, and sd. pitt with the 31st toughest sos, having beaten, cle, sea, sf. buf, and losing to ariz. both teams with 2 wks to prepare, and pitt enters a 3 game stretch of inter-division games next wk. if the line gets to 4 i take den in a must win situation i think, and hopefully they can keep it close.

no play for me on miami game, ne absolutely pounds homedawgs. no play on hou, tenn game, should be very tite throughout going either way, with a lean to tenn if vy plays. texan fans down here just love to see vy tear up their home team, knowing he couldve been a texan.

[Skinsfan]

CAREFUL on the Skins.... I agree, fading Rattay seems smart.... but.... Skins lost 3 more o-linemen this past weekend... thats a total of FIVE off. linemen from the week 1 roster that have gone down (has any team ever suffered more devestating injuries to their o-line before in 5 games?).

Second, there is something wrong with Santana Moss. He has been dropping passes all year long... he dropped 3 or 4 against Green Bay plus fumbled the ball that cost the Skins the game. He then took himself out of the game. I'm a little bit bitter at the Skins coaching staff... Gibbs should have told Moss "you need to get your ass back in the game... you're our best receiver" just to get his confidence back!!!!!! Gibbs botched that one big time.... anyhow, who knows how Santana's psyche is....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'll back Joe Public with the Steelers this week...actually already bought it early at -3. Denver is a horrible team, and are still getting respect because of their past and their coach. If that Denver personnel was wearing a traditionally bad team's uniforms this week playing the hot Steelers, the line would be closer to a TD, IMO. Steelers have been dominant in every game, except for that one bad spot in Zona. We know how Denver can't stop the run for ****...and I hammered the Chargers when they played Denver because of this....well nobody runs the ball like the Steelers (2nd in the NFL), so you would have to expect a similar game to the SD result, and a BIG day for Willie Parker. This is what Big Ben and Pitt do...run the ball, and play action passes.....one teams strength against one teams weekness.. This is also a mismatch on the other side of the ball, with Cutler, and the rest of Denver's offence struggling (15 PPG, 5th worst in the NFL) having to face the NFL's best defence (only giving up 9.4 PPG...best by FAR). If not for two lucky FG wins by Denver, this is talked about being the worst team in the NFL. Cutler's been ****, and is was maybe rushed. I know the Steelers haven't had a hard schedule yet, but they are gettig it done against these teams, and should roll again this week, in a similar fashion to the Chargers game. Denver also does not cover **** at home the past couple years, so laying the FG doesn't worry me too much as I see DD win.

I'll leave the Patriots talk all alone, as I don't even want to get into it. lol.

I agree with Horf....the Chiefs looks good as a dog...might go ML.

Also looking at the Bucs, as they are much better than the brutal Lions on the defensive side of the ball, and Garcia has been playing smart at QB for the Bucs, just plaing getting it done (5 TDs/0 INT/104 Rtg). Detroit should not be giving points to a good team like TB. Don't understand this one, as defense usual dictates games, and we have the 5th ranked Bucs against a Lions team that is only marginally better than Cincy for worst. Also...the one and only perceived strength of the Lions, the passing game (although Kitna hasn't exactly looked great lately) faces a Bucs defence that is 8th best against the pass, so they won't be pushovers in that department. TB's injuries don't scare me, I'll take the much better team as a dog.

The only other ones that caught my eye are the Bills as a homedog against the over-rated Ravens...like the FG there, but have to look more into it....

Right now it looks like a smaller week for me with two public favs NE -14 & Pitt -3 as well as two road dogs with KC & TB, and a maybe on the Buffalo Homedog play (I'd love to get the free hook if Baltimore money keeps coming in!)

Things are really cooking this year, and I don't want to push my luck...so I'm only playing plays I absolutely love, and not betting the board just for action like I've done some weeks in the past. lol.

BTW....these are always great threads...good job UD! :thumbs:

Let's make some money :beerbang:

[Horfin]

Skins,

Great points as usual. you can not ever underestimate the importance of injuries on the OL. Five guys down and five new ones in is amazing. Cincinnati last year buckled after losing two OL. This is a tremendous spot to play against the Redskins. I'd take a back up QB (third string in this case) over an entire OL of 2nd stringers.


Horfin

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

den +3.5

public hammering pitt here, no surprise. pit 4-1 ats 4-1 overall, den 2-3 overall, 0-5 ats. den 1-11 ats in last 12 home games. den needs a win bad, especially after the egg they laid against sd at home 2 wks ago. den with a big edge in sos, having already played jax, indy, and sd. pitt with the 31st toughest sos, having beaten, cle, sea, sf. buf, and losing to ariz. both teams with 2 wks to prepare, and pitt enters a 3 game stretch of inter-division games next wk. if the line gets to 4 i take den in a must win situation i think, and hopefully they can keep it close.

I agree...SOS is very different here...definitely one concern....but the way I look at it, is the Steelers are just beating one more bad team! lol.

Also...yes, Denver layed an egg as you say against SD last week...but the big question is why? Their achilles heel...run defence. Then ask yourself, what do the Steelers do as well as any team in the league? Exactly run the ball. It seemed that easy last week, and I think it comes down to just that again this week. Denver's only real strength, IMO is pass defence...not something Pitt really concerns themselves with....they will stick to running the ball up Denver's throat, and running play action for short gains to move the chains.

JMO.

GL! I agree with the others! :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

CAREFUL on the Skins.... I agree, fading Rattay seems smart.... but.... Skins lost 3 more o-linemen this past weekend... thats a total of FIVE off. linemen from the week 1 roster that have gone down (has any team ever suffered more devestating injuries to their o-line before in 5 games?).

Second, there is something wrong with Santana Moss. He has been dropping passes all year long... he dropped 3 or 4 against Green Bay plus fumbled the ball that cost the Skins the game. He then took himself out of the game. I'm a little bit bitter at the Skins coaching staff... Gibbs should have told Moss "you need to get your ass back in the game... you're our best receiver" just to get his confidence back!!!!!! Gibbs botched that one big time.... anyhow, who knows how Santana's psyche is....

Great stuff...I agree....I thought this was a bigtime over-reaction to the Zona QB situation, and I am actually looking at Arizona if that line gets any higher. I mean Rattay isn't THAT bad, he has plenty of starts under his belt, and has a full week to prepare. Great stuff on the injuries, Skins....it's a play at +10 for me.

:thumbs:

[Horfin]

betting the board just for action like I've done some weeks in the past.

Don't worry I'll do that.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Don't worry I'll do that.

4-5 seem to be working for me....but I know how you feel!

[Underdog88]

CAREFUL on the Skins.... I agree, fading Rattay seems smart.... but.... Skins lost 3 more o-linemen this past weekend... thats a total of FIVE off. linemen from the week 1 roster that have gone down (has any team ever suffered more devestating injuries to their o-line before in 5 games?).

Wow, I didn't even look deep enough yet to see that... All 3 definitely out? That makes this a no-play for me, no way I lay chalk with a banged up o-line. I still wouldn't touch the Cards- the line would have to be 17+ for me to even consider playing on Zona. I was also looking at the under 36, possibly the Zona team under which will likely be 14. Honestly, I don't care how many snaps Rattay takes this week, he's bad. . I just don't see him going into Washington & throwing the ball all over them. The Skins secondary IMO is good enough to where they can load up on the run, bring pressure & cause him to make mistakes. They are ranked #5 allowing 179 yds passing per game. If they stop Edge early (Washington is only allowing 3.7 ypc 79.6 ypg), & force long 3rd downs, it'll be a long day for Rattay.

Skins D pts allowed....

10 pts @ GB

3 pts vs. Detroit

24 pts vs NYG

12 pts @ Philly

13 pts vs Miami


Only 1x vs NY did the Skins D allow more than 13 pts. Rattay mustered 10 pts vs. Carolina at home! I just don't see him coming into Washington & scoring more than 10.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I just don't see him coming into Washington & scoring more than 10.

He might only need 10 to cover a 10 pt line!

[DevilsAdvokt]

He might only need 10 to cover a 10 pt line!

or just like last week it wont be rattay it will be all edge and he will carry this football team...
the guy is getting better with this team every snap... rattay is not gonna be asked to do much against washington edge will carry the load and rattay may have to complete 3rd down and 3-5 yards every now and than... not as difficult as 3rd and 10+

also arizona def is really good too..

held carolina in check all game except on 2 plays...

steve smith 65 yard td catch in the 4th quarter with 5 mins left

with out that cornerback mistake on that play when he was lost on the field leaving steve wide open.. testaverde is 19-32 for 141 yards
7.4yards per pass


and the other play
d-williams running the ball with 3 mins 19 secs left in the 4th quarter a couple mistackles later on that play and willaims gets 75yard run....
with out that 75 yard play

9 carries for 46 yards and carolina as a team would have had 29 carries for 106 yards
3.6 yards per carry


so what i am trying to say here is this game could feature alot of running the ball or ball control game from arizona due to injuries at quarterback for a lot of clock rolling

and as SKINS said earlier in this post about redskins offensive line injuries its gonna be hard for washington to get 3.6 a carry with regular line men let alone their back ups...

proceed with caution... (IMO there are better games to look at this week)

favorite play of week is jets @ Bengals this week
&
Chiefs @ raiders

GL to you all this week

[Underdog88]

He might only need 10 to cover a 10 pt line!

Be that as it may, I still think an under play is stronger than taking the Cards....