Week 8 Parlay

[homedawg]

I heard all this same stuff about Trent Edwards when Losman went down too.

Edwards was a true rookie with no NFL experience, and that worked out ok. Too often (IMO) people fade the unknown, and get a real bad line in doing so.

I mean seriously, the books know Garrard is out. The line is plenty adjusted. They're not giving away a freebee here. They opened the line at +5!! It would have been a pk at the absolute best a week ago....and possibly a real small JAX fave.

It's now down to +3.5 with 62% on TB.

TB just ain't all that great to be laying points (ESPECIALLY not more than a FG) to a team who can flat out shut down what little offense they do have.

This game is SCREAMING JAX or no play.

dammit stif, I was havin' fun:spin: now you spoiled it... :cry:

[Stifler's Mom]

I heard all this same stuff about Trent Edwards when Losman went down too.

Edwards was a true rookie with no NFL experience, and that worked out ok. Too often (IMO) people fade the unknown, and get a real bad line in doing so.

I mean seriously, the books know Garrard is out. The line is plenty adjusted. They're not giving away a freebee here. They opened the line at +5!! It would have been a pk at the absolute best a week ago....and possibly a real small JAX fave.

It's now down to +3.5 with 62% on TB.

TB just ain't all that great to be laying points (ESPECIALLY not more than a FG) to a team who can flat out shut down what little offense they do have.

This game is SCREAMING JAX or no play.

[DevilsAdvokt]

And last week i thought it was more likely to see a

38-7 game win by pats

max 42-21 if bunch of f'd up scores like kick returns or int returns...

but i did not think a 49-28 game that blew me away..

so i just gonna stick with the over than ever do that again or stay away

in regards to a Patriots game

[homedawg]

ya i know

what you are saying i am just talking about why i play so many overs vs unders in nfl with my teasers...

most games in nfl go over 30.5 points so if i bring a few lines down around that mark or below than i feel comfortable about taking them and laying the wood out

dont forget the lines are inflated to the over, joepub likes overs..:beer2:

[DevilsAdvokt]

ya lost me... I was referring to nep/was o36 or u60:beer2:

ya i know

what you are saying i am just talking about why i play so many overs vs unders in nfl with my teasers...

most games in nfl go over 30.5 points so if i bring a few lines down around that mark or below than i feel comfortable about taking them and laying the wood out

[homedawg]

ya lost me... I was referring to nep/was o36 or u60:beer2:

[DevilsAdvokt]

Based on that i am making my regular break downs in games and staying away from games like bal vs san fran or chic vs sd


yes there will be games that will bite me in the ass like oak kc but i felt good on 23.5
i had that game at a 17 13 final felt good with it but i lost

[DevilsAdvokt]

Here is what i got on my book


15-0
16-1
17-0
18-0
19-1
20-1
21-1
22-1
23-3
24-1
25-2
26-2
27-3
28-0
29-5
30-1


Ok so there has been 103 nfl games played so far this year
3 games have gone under 19.5 97.08% of games go over 19.5 so far
5 games have gone under 21.5 95.14% of games go over 21.5 so far
17 games have gone under 28.5 83.49% of games go over 28.5 so far
22 games have gone under 29.5 78.64% of games go over 29.5 so far
23 games have gone under 30.5 77.66% of games go over 30.5 so far


if i take a game in the 20's i got at least a 78.64% chance so far IMO of hitting it over

[homedawg]

i think it would make 0 sense to tease the under...

0 sense? wash-D: 14ppg & nep-D: 17ppg.... no sense at all, to tease u60???... :conf:

[Shamrock]

DA, if you found something that works, wish you all the best. Good stuff.

As far as the O/U on the NE game, i think it would make 0 sense to tease the under. I'm with you on that one. That is a 35-14 game, IMO.

GL.

Tre, we confuse you yet?

Sham........

[homedawg]

i did that last week and lost i took pats/phins under 63.5

not good thus i got pissed at brady for going 2 min drill before half up 28-7

so i dont play unders any more esp with new england's lowest score this year at 34
means i am banking on a fg by washington... in a way at 36
-----------------------------------

I understand, you are swayed by the nep ppg... but if you compare the defense in miami and the defense in washington, + the look ahead game for nep (need to stay healthy here), along with the weak wash offense up against the strong nep defense, I think this game has a much better chance of ending 30-3, then 31-30... :beer2:

[DevilsAdvokt]

Out of 7 weeks so far in nfl

only 5 games went under 21.5 points in total

week 1 chicago 3 sd 14

week 2 atlanta 7 jacksonville 13

week 4 phi 3 nyg 16

week 5 pitt 21 sea 0

week 5 bal 9 sf 7

[DevilsAdvokt]

I use to do teasers, but it just wasn't worth it to me... parlays have a much better payoff! you can do less games and make more! :thumbs:

btw, finding the best value in a teaser is the key! why would you take the pats/skins over 36 and not under 60???? skins are weak on offense, and both teams have a good defense! :beer2:

i did that last week and lost i took pats/phins under 63.5

not good thus i got pissed at brady for going 2 min drill before half up 28-7

so i dont play unders any more esp with new england's lowest score this year at 34
means i am banking on a fg by washington... in a way at 36
-----------------------------------

if i think it cant go over than i dont play it
i have found last 3 years about 88% of games score over 21 points in total so most of time i am getting my teases in low 20's i feel good about the plays...

only time this lost for me was last week this year i played chiefs/raiders over 23.5
score 12-10 lmao

but i see lots of value in these 4 spots for me with 12 points...

[homedawg]

My advice to you sir is to play teasers instead of parlays if u are playing 3 or more games on a ticket....

u want a bigger payout than go with 5 point tease and let that 4 spot roll...

i personally like playing 4 spot 12 point teasers
pays even money i do this every week in nfl on my 5dimes account...

although 90% of the time i play overs on totals... so far worked out great 5-2 this year to date on them.. i dont post them on this forum cause most people here play the sides only in nfl... i dont tend to do that.. i like the college football for that cause favorites tend to hold up their value, nfl is more a u-dog story.... so i take points...



as far as that actual ticket you have i like 2 of your picks points over in newengland/washington 48 and colts -6.5

but tease those 12 points

colts +5.5
pats/skins over 36
bucs +8.5
viks/eags over 25.5

looks alot better more in your favor and you get great payout with even money...

good luck bro:thumbs:

I use to do teasers, but it just wasn't worth it to me... parlays have a much better payoff! you can do less games and make more! :thumbs:

btw, finding the best value in a teaser is the key! why would you take the pats/skins over 36 and not under 60???? skins are weak on offense, and both teams have a good defense! :beer2:

[Shamrock]

IMO, they call a tease a tease for a reason.

Like parlays, they are just another trick bet making you feel like you have a better chance to win. I haven't known a person to profit consistently wagering on teasers and/or parlays. On the other side, its well know that bookies love seeing people place those types of plays.

That being said, DA, i hope you rake it in. Just seems like our friend Tre here hasnt been wagering all that long based on his opening question in this thread. Therefore, I recommend straight bets for someone in his position.

Finally, the only time i parlay or tease is when my weekly number is UP and i'm just foolin' around. I never would bet these types of plays consistently. Not to mention the double juice on a tease!

Sham.......