JML Week 16 NFL >>>

[BoKnows]

Love that Browns bet. Seems to easy...

When is anything to easy in the NFL?

BOL Johnny!:beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Added the Thursday game. I think the OVER is the best play in this one. Rams have a horrible defence, and Ben and the Steelers offence should turn things around tonight, finally playing a game in perfect conditions, and not on a ****ty field. I don't see why Pittsburgh can't put up 30 points on the 27th ranked Rams defence who have been giving up a ton of points to any decent team all year. On the other side of the ball...I think the Rams will be able to score as well....they average close to 9 more points a game at home in the dome than on the road, and will be facing a Pittsburgh defence that is really banged up coming into tonight, and is playing on a short week. Looks like a 34-20 type win...but I think the total is the safer play than a Thursday road-fav side play...

GL :beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Decided to add the Steelers side as well, buying the hook. I really think a clean track will get that offence going tonight against the ****ty Rams defence. And while I think the Rams will be able to put up a few points as well, I still think its a 2 TD win for Pitt. I see two bigtime dog players, stif and UD are on the public road fav tomight, so that helped with my decision as well.

Also...at -7, it's a pick the winner scenerio, so if the Rams, with some crazy luck manage to win this game outright, that makes the Cleveland game even more important, as they could be well on their way to the division with a win over simply the worst team in the NFL, the laughable Bungals. A Steelers outright loss likely makes the Browns a play of the year, so I'd make up the lost 2 Pitt Units anyway. Best case scenerio is both plays win tonight, and the 4 unit Cle play on Sunday wins too...as I think it does regardless. That's my demented thinking anyway. lol.

Anyway....lots of Steeler points tonight, please! lol :thumbs:

GL guys, and enjoy the game! :beerbang:

[Daws1089]

jml, i dont think the steelers are really a public play tonight. pretty even to me. im seeing 56% on pitt. but it is pick the winner here. rams have pretty much packed it up. they are thinking about what they are going to do on their weekend off.:thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

Only scary thing is that the Steelers are downright bad on the road outside of the win @Cle in Week 1. I hope you're right tonight JML, because my boys need this one :beerbang:

[homedawg]

jml, i dont think the steelers are really a public play tonight. pretty even to me. im seeing 56% on pitt. but it is pick the winner here. rams have pretty much packed it up. they are thinking about what they are going to do on their weekend off.:thumbs:

that is on WL, which is powered by pinnys line -9...
SI has
54572
pitt 63%
stl 37%

SB has

pit 78%
stl 22%

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

2-0 on Thursday :thumbs:


Added a Jax/Ten TEASER...

2 home favs with the bigtime need for a win against 2 teams playing out the year. 2 of the best rushing teams (ranked 2nd & 4th) facing 2 of the worst rush defences (ranked 30th & 31st!). Way too much of a talent difference in both of these games, and the favs best attributes match up perfectly against these Dogs worst attributes. Add in 2 pretty good defences for Jax & Ten, and I don't see either Dog keeping this close.

Jaguars play already has a write-up, but I love the play even more laying less than a TD (although I still think Jax wins by 20+). Raiders without Fargas have no chance, IMO...especially when they are the 2nd worst passing team in the NFL. Look for the shakey rookie Russell to make a couple mistakes against that good Jax defence as well, while he's in there.

As for the Titans they should run all over the Jets. They're still in the hunt, although they need help....but first and foremost they need to beat the Jets this week. They will do that easily at home. Jets have one win on the road....at Miami. They played pretty well at NE last week...but that close"ish" game probably was their season highlight...so maybe we get a letdown this week. Weather was also a factor in NE, helping the Jets keep in close....but in a good weather situation this week, the cream will rise to the top. Ten is all about the run game, as we all know....and White and Young should have good days on the ground. Haynsworth also looks healthy, so look for the good Titans D-line to get past the horrible Jets O-line (44 sacks allowed!) and knock noodle-arm around alot Sunday. As a matter of fact, we'll probably even see Marques Tuiasosopo in this one, when noodle-arm goes down at some point.

GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Added the Saturday game...Backing another team with something to play for, against a team looking for the end. This is a trend of all my picks this week, as a sense of urgency can sometimes be the difference.

Looking for a Cowboys bounce-back game against the Panthers. Dallas needs this win badly to avoid possibly going to GB in the playoffs instead of hosting that game. Huge difference, as The Cowboys to not play well there, and Farve is traditionally awful in Texas.

Carolina played an OK game last week, but it was more a fact of running into a Sea team that cannot play on the road. Dallas can play on the road, with their perfect 6-0 record (albeit a weak road schedule). Cowboys have not looked great lately, but this is a good spot for them to get back on track, playing a team that has trouble scoring points. The Panthers have been losing in blowouts when they've faced good teams (losing by more than 2 TDs to Jax/NO/GB/Ind), and even managed to lose to the horrible Falcons. I expect the boys to roll...

GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Added the Cardinals....ouch I'm eating alot of chalk this week....but I really think it's a week where favs roll...

Mostly a fade of Atlanta...this team is done like dinner....talk about disfunctional...they've gone from bad, to worse, to embarrasing....they were not a talented team to begin with, but now with all the bull**** going on around them, they are supposed to cross time zones into the desert, never an easy thing to do, and put up a good showing against a decent Cards team. Cards are 4-2 at home, and the Falcons are, as expected, a horrible road team. Atlanta has been outscored 71-17 during their 5-game losing streak. Looking for a similar result to last weeks Atl/TB game.



I'd like to add about 10 units to that Browns play, but I'll play it smart and leave it alone....I know I'm going to be kicking myself though...lol...


GL

[homedawg]

I'd like to add about 10 units to that Browns play, but I'll play it smart and leave it alone....I know I'm going to be kicking myself though...lol...


GL

The line is dropping and If you feel that good about it, do it... GL on whatever you decide.

[Stifler's Mom]

Added the Cardinals....ouch I'm eating alot of chalk this week....but I really think it's a week where favs roll...

GL

Faves are traditionally horrible ATS plays in week 16 and week 17....for whatever reason. Especially road faves. Doesn't mean that will hold true this year, though. Just pointing it out.

As far as the Bungles/Browns....divisional rivalries bring out the best in even bad teams, usually. The Bungles have nothing to really play for, except trying to ruin the Browns season. IMO that is motivation enough. I remember a few times where the Browns handed the Bungles an L when the Bungles were playoff bound and the Browns were pathetic, and I really think the Bungles return the favor today.

And, like I said a few weeks ago when they played Arizona, the Browns as a road fave is nearly always a good go against, much like every other team in the NFL with the obvious exceptions of NE, INDY, etc. The Browns are just not (IMHO) ready for road fave status, much like other teams who will barely get in, or barely miss (BUF, TEN, HOU, etc)

From what I've seen, NE, INDY, SD and JAX are in another class from the rest of the AFC, with PIT being just behind, and the rest are, well, the rest....with the obvious exceptions who just plain completely suck like MIA, KC and NYJ, and asking one of the "rest" to win/cover on the road against anyone other than like MIA or NYJ is asking alot.

GL today

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Thanks Stif...points well taken.
I just think Cincy is sooo bad, that history won't apply.
They are the worst team in the NFL, and any time I can only lay 3 against the worst team in the NFL....especially backing a team in the P/O hunt..I do it. lol. I'm a sucker that way. We'll see. Travelling to Zona is hard, travelling in-state to a stadiuym likely filled with alot of Browns fans, against a horrible team, won't be...IMO

I see they just drove easily down the field on Cincy for an early FG, but missed the snap! lol. You might be right! bad early karma.

Anyway....left Cleveland as a regular 4 unit play, cause you guys scred me off! lol.

I see the Bills and Jags are up early. :thumbs:

Bills look great so far. Giants blow! 14-0


Adding the night game...

Vikings -6 -101 vs Skins - 2 Units
Taking the good home team against a team that is not such a good road team....Vikings really should have blown out the Bears w/o all the turnovers. I think they bounce back in a big way tonight. Picking a winner, and the home team has to be the one.


Heading to my in-laws cottage in Grand Bend for the weekend....have a great Christmas everyone! :cheers:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Edit...Palmer follows up the botched Cle FG attempt with a Interception!

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks Stif...points well taken.


Adding the night game...

Vikings -6 -101 vs Skins - 2 Units
Taking the good home team against a team that is not such a good road team....Vikings really should have blown out the Bears w/o all the turnovers. I think they bounce back in a big way tonight. Picking a winner, and the home team has to be the one.

I agree with you 100% on this one. I had the Bears in that one, and it never should have covered. To think of having a +4 turnover margin in your favor and LOSING by a TD? Point being, yes, the Bears are bad, but MIN is pretty damn good. Using pick the winner, and it's an easy choice (for me) to take MIN or no play. No way I could take WASH.

As far as CLE....they just seem to self destruct on the road (as do alot of marginal teams). I haven't seen them be able to play 60 solid minutes on the road, or anything even close to it. The best game I personally witnessed them play on the road was their loss to NE, which was played far closer than the final score would indicate.

I remember back to their road game @ OAK, where they played so bad early that they were down just way too far to come back. Ditto to the Arizona game. They did manage to squeak by the Jets, Rams and Ravens on the road (whooppee doo - as those are 3 of the worst teams in the NFL), but otherwise, they just don't seem to be able to get over the hump, losing to teams like OAK and ARI that they should beat if they're a playoff caliber team.

Sure, it could hit....but my point was that IMHO it's a low percentage play, hence the reason the line opened at only CLE -3 in the first place, and dropped all the way to -1 at some sharper books, despite 72% of the bets coming in on them.

Granted, Cinainnati just sucks (the books know CIN sucks too), but yet the line was so short, it was begging for Browns action....cause the percentages were in the books favor. I think the Browns are just not ready to pound a team on the road, and for that reason, I see getting their opponent as a home dog as a profitable situation....since they'll probably at the very least be in the game the whole way.

[homedawg]

Anyway....left Cleveland as a regular 4 unit play, cause you guys scared me off! lol.

great discipline! :thumbs: merry xmas johnny :beerbang: