***NFL Week 5 Discussion***

[dananderson32]

don't have time for reasoning right now but i like

NO -3 (better team at home)

arizona +1 (bills haven't played anyone but jax and i think the other 3 teams they played aren't as good as arizona plus zona is at home)

den -3 (hold your breath with that D but i think they put up enough points on O)

balt +3 (tenn is overrated IMO)

jax -4 (pitt sucks balls)

and cincy +17.5 looks tasty but they blow ass also :puke:

[Underdog88]

Pretty sure I'm going to be on the Lions. Divisional game where perception is all screwy. Nobody wants a part of the Lions, especially after the Bears beat the Eagles on primetime. Classic letdown spot here for the Bears. Their pass D is not as good as you would think, giving up 246 per game. If there is one thing the Lions have, it's great wrs. Detroit won both meetings last season, taking the home game 37-27. In 2006 they lost @ home 26-21. I expect 50+ passing attempts from Detroit, & a higher scoring game. Thinking Detroit+pts, ml, team o20 & game over could all be solid plays. Chicago should be able to score a couple on Forte plays, & Orton dare I say has looked ok lately.


I lean Ravens after watching them on MNF. IMO the best defense in the game by a longshot, home off a ot loss where they gave the game away. I would give them the motivational edge. Flacco was definitely rattled at times, but in all honesty he looked better than what I though he would. The Ravens D has not allowed a single rushing td this season. Their D is boasting a 43% completion rate, & just 117 yds allowed passing per game (2 tds, 5ints). The Titans are a team that feeds off the power run game as well as turnovers-league leading +6. If they are unable to get the run going, Collins will be in long 3rd down situations & a heap of trouble. To me it comes down to turnovers- the Titans scored 21 points off 4 turnovers last week. This is the Titans first test on the road, given they played the no D Bengals. Not sure I can play an under this low. Could be a 12-9 game throughout then teams trade tds & it's over.

[Billy The Kid]

At first glance Indy/Hou Over, New England, and New Orleans jumped out.

Indy/Hou Over 47- Indy's first 3 games this year against tough D's Chi, Minn, Jax and now face a Texans D that has given up 38, 31, 30 points in their first three games. Indy started to show some signs of offensive life that we are use to seeing, now comming off a bye week with a rested Manning and Addai. Houston has also faced their share of tough defenses this year (Pitt, Tenn, Jax). Schaub actually had a very good day throwing the ball against Jax with 307 yrds and 3 tds and had three recievers with 7+ receptions and Andre Johnson was NOT one of them. Indy has yet to face a quality QB this year, Orton, T. Jackson, Garrad, and Schaub IMO is the most talented passer of this group as long as he can get the time to throw the rock. IMO A. Johnson brakes out this week and Schaub has another quality day. I expect a rested Indy squad looking to regain its '07 form to light up the score board and win the game in a shootout.

NE -3 NE off a bye giving 3 to a San Fran team who managed only 17 points against a poor New Orleans D, 8 of those points with 4 minutes left in the game. Pats looking to rebound off a dissapointing loss to Miami two weeks ago.

New Orleans -3 Brees chucking the rock against a below average Vikes secondary. Saints D actually looked a little improved last week picking off JT twice and somewhat limiting Gore (16 att. 82 yrds.). IMO the Vikes hammer AP but don't keep up with the Saints high powered
passing offense.

ADD

Eagles -5.5 Philly off a dissapoint loss facing a Redskins team off a big win at Dallas now playing in their second game of a B2B divisional road game trip. Public high on Washington.

[Underdog88]

Homedogs first

Detroit+3.5 vs Chi.

Ravens+3 vs Ten.

49ers+3 vs Pats.

Dolphins+6.5 vs SD

Texans+3 vs Indy




Squarest play in the world is the Colts. That being said I want no part of Houston ats. Betus has 4.5, but still no thanks. They could play the game of their lives, & still lose to Peyton & co by 7. If anyone is considering the Texans, thinking they will keep it close or win su, IMO the over is the much better play. My sole concern with the over is that the Colts will chew up TOP with Addai, in an effort to keep their D on the sidelines as long as possible. Even so, the Texans are allowing 160 rushing yards per game, 4.8 ypc. Indy is allowing 199 per game 4.9 ypc. Pretty hard for me to imagine a defensive slugfest, I would expect plenty of trips into the red zone. Indy has a good pass D, but obviously they are different withough Sanders. Statistically the Texans do too, but IMO it has more to do with the fact that teams run more vs them. Why not the over?

2005

58 points @ Houston (18 pt Colts win)
48 @Indy (15 pt Colts win)

2006

67 points @Indy (19 point Indy win)
51 points @Houston (3 point Texans win)

2007

54 points @Houston (6 pt Indy win)
53 points @Indy (23 pt Indy win)


Lean over 46.5/ Colts team over 24.5 (-115 @Betus). Close to playing that team over right now. They have scored 30+ pts in 5 of the last 6 meetings. This line is being kept lower than it should because the Colts have yet to score over 21 points. The Texans D is far from Jax, Minny & the Bears!

[FlyersFan]

Panthers defense is definitely for real but they don't seem to be able to put up a ton of points each week. Hate laying 10 points with a team with a mediocre offense. but the chefs got their win last week over hated denver and not sure they are going to cover here.

17 1/2 is a crazy NFL line but probably justified in the cowboys game. Palmer is most likely sitting again this week.

also like the giants -7 this week coming off that bye week. SEA sucks and it's another 10AM game for them on the east coast which never is a good thing for them.

as i said in chalkyleaf's thread, i do like the Over in the HOU game. IND offense is better than what it has showed so far and HOU defense is as bad as what it has showed, IMO. Plus HOU will put up some points on Indy. I think this has a 30-24 type final written all over it.

I also would lean heavily to the eagles. WAS off a huge win in DAL and now travels to PHI for a 2nd straight road divisional game. PHI really needs this one badly as they are 2-2 and a loss puts them at 2-3 which is almost out of it at this point with that division being what it is. I love the Eagles defense and their offense will be fine even without Westbrook. Probably my favorite play at this point. Pick the winner and it's going to be PHI, IMO. They are in a very similar spot to what the Bears were in last weekend and i expect the same kind of effort from PHI.

[Underdog88]

BTW, these are lines taken from Pinny. I like to compare them to my book's lines. IMO Pinny is the sharpest (& best) book out there. I'll never get over losing them...sniff.....


Not sure if people just don't feel like discussing, but we could have way better talks here. I want to try & touch on every game, hopefully with some conflicting points of view. I would love nothing more than to get talked out of a losing play!


Anyone have an opinion on the KC/Carolina game? I haven't looked into it, & I really haven't seen enough Panthers games to get a feel for them....

[Underdog88]

Let's get discussin'






Indianapolis Colts-3*-113-168............OVER 46.5*-105

Houston Texans+3*+105+158............UNDER 46.5*-105


Tennessee Titans*-3*+110-147...........OVER 33*-105

Baltimore Ravens*+3*-118+137.........UNDER 33*-105


San Diego Chargers-6.5*+100-240.......OVER 45*+102

Miami Dolphins+6.5*-108+220.............UNDER 45*-112


Kansas City Chiefs+9.5*-103+370.........OVER 38.5*+100

Carolina Panthers-9.5*-105-410.............UNDER 38.5*-110



Washington Redskins+5.5*+104+230.......OVER 42.5*+100

Philadelphia Eagles-5.5*-112-250.............UNDER 42.5*-110



Chicago Bears-3.5*+100-182...................OVER 44.5*-105

Detroit Lions+3.5*-108+172....................UNDER 44.5*-105



Seattle Seahawks+7*+100+282...............OVER 43*-103

New York Giants-7*-108-312....................UNDER 43*-107


Tampa Bay Buccaneers+3*+107+152.......OVER 47.5*-105

Denver Broncos-3*-115-162.....................UNDER 47.5*-105


New England Patriots-3*-123-183..............OVER 41*+100

San Francisco 49ers+3*+115+173.............UNDER 41*-110


Buffalo Bills+1*-106-102........................... OVER 44.5*-103

Arizona Cardinals-1*-102-108....................UNDER 44.5*-107


Cincinnati Bengals+17.5*-113....................OVER 44*-105

Dallas Cowboys-17.5*+105........................UNDER 44*-105


Pittsburgh Steelers+4*+101+195...............OVER 36*-107

Jacksonville Jaguars-4*-109-215................UNDER 36*-103


Minnesota Vikings+3*+106+152.................OVER 46.5*-102

New Orleans Saints-3*-114-162..................UNDER 46.5*-108