***NFL Week 5 Discussion***

[Underdog88]

The Giants nearly lost to the Bengals at home, & are facing a Seahawks team that nobody wants to touch on the road. Total looks way high, leaning Giants team u24.5-105. They needed ot to get to 26 vs Cincy, & put up 16 vs the Skins. They put up less than 23 in half of their home games last season.... would like this even if Plax was in, but it doesn't hurt that he's out.

[Underdog88]

Just added Atlanta team under 18.5.


Atlanta has scored just 9 pts in each of their road games this season. Stopping Turner is the key to beating the Falcons, & I think that GB off a road loss should be pretty focused to do so. Whether or not Rodgers starts, I expect the Packers to run a ton today, so with both teams figuring to run I expect a t.o.p battle. I also think the Packers/ game under are both good plays as well, but I'm a bit concerned about the pack pouring it on late, so I'm more comfortable focusing on the Falcons to struggle offensively. The Falcons have totaled over 40 pts for a game just 2 times in the past 10 games. The Packers allowed 27 @ home to Dallas, but they are a touch better offensively than Atlanta. The Pack allowed over 17 pts @ home 2 times last seasonto SD & the Bears. I think 2tds + 1 fg will be good here....

[Underdog88]

Still time before kickoff, anyone want to find some winners?

nep as a dog 1-0 ats & 1-0 ml, nep as a fav 0-2 ats & 1-1ml
49ers for me! :beer2:

Already played them in a ml parlay, still considering them ats for a little more. I currently can get them +4 @ betus, would like the hook though. Everyone thinking along the same lines- The Colts & Pats won't lose off a bye. IMO they both could. Pats have great history winning on the road off a home loss. With Brady. I'm not sure the SF defense is the one Cassel will finally be able to move the ball on. Also not sure that Gore will be the rb the Pats stop- I can't get the vision of Ronnie Brown running wild out of my head. Exactly what have the Pats done this season to warrrant being 4 pt road faves? Beat a KC team by 7 @ home? Beat the Jets by posting 19 points?

Forget the teams. Would you lay road points with a team whose qb hasn't thrown over 165 yards this season, with no rb rushing over 62 yards in a game? 49 pts in 3 games playing 3 non-playoff teams (sorry jets fans). Throw in a defense that imo is vastly overrated & allowing 5 ypc, & you have a public wager that I want no part of.

[hodown]

NY Giants -7
Pick the winner. Is Burress out making this line so low? Sea is 1-2 with the lone win coming over the worst team in the NFL, and they are notorious terrible when traveling across the country to play. This is my favorite play of the week.

Jacksonville -4
Top 2 rb's gone, and Holmes is questionable. Pitt not a great road team and its a pick the winner situation again. Sunday night game and Jax sitting at 2-2 means the crowd should be lively and a more needed game for Jax than Pitt.

Colts -3
Both teams need it, and the Colts coming off a bye. Houston not as bad as the record indicates and they have not played a home game yet. But I think we see a refocused Indi team and with both teams wanting the game badly, I take the better Indi team imo.

Arizona -1
Similar to last years Pitt game at home where public hit Pitt heavy and Az came out on top. Buf is good but not as good as 4-0 would suggest, and Ari needs the win badly after losing 2 straight on the road.

[homedawg]

nep as a dog 1-0 ats & 1-0 ml, nep as a fav 0-2 ats & 1-1ml
49ers for me! :beer2:

[Q-Unit]

I like Miami and TB.

and agree with what you said up there

good spots for MLs IMO

[Daws1089]

The two plays I've been looking at are Detroit and Tampa Bay. The bears showed absolutely nothing in the 2nd half of that game last week. Turnovers galore and maybe 3 first downs all 2nd half. They did everything possible to give the game to philly, but the eagles just didn't want to take it. I know the bears won that game, but I don't think I could lay points with them on the road in a division game. Lions mess in the front office and bears win over a decent philly team last week should be fresh in the public's mind.

I like TB because they can run the ball very well and Denver has no one in their front 7 that scares me. DJ Williams can make plays, but no one else really poses as a run stopper to me. Plus TB defense is really good. That guy Barret Ruude is underrated I think. I think we see more of Cutler's struggles.


I am also leaning to Miami. The Chargers barely escaped last week from an oakland team that dominated them for most of the game aside from a late touchdown. Miami has had time to rest and they look to have their running game back. I also don't like SD playing their 2nd straight road game and this one being across the country. I just don't think this SD team is as good as previous ones and they are getting a little too much respect.

[rawhide]

Jax -4 Pitt Off. really in disarray! Pitt usually a good play @ home but they are a whole different team away from Ketchup. IMO for the most port there wins were pretty ugly and there loss was even uglyer.

That said, I think the game will be fairly close but Ill take the home team in a pick a winner and might wait or buy a point.


-------------
NFL YTD:
SIDES 16-1
Totals 2-3-1
--------------
MNF YTD:
SIDES 3-0
TOTALS 1-0
--------------
TEASER:
1-0
--------------
NCAAF YTD:
SIDES 1-2
-------------

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Pretty sure I'm going to be on the Lions. Divisional game where perception is all screwy. Nobody wants a part of the Lions, especially after the Bears beat the Eagles on primetime. Classic letdown spot here for the Bears. Their pass D is not as good as you would think, giving up 246 per game. If there is one thing the Lions have, it's great wrs. Detroit won both meetings last season, taking the home game 37-27. In 2006 they lost @ home 26-21. I expect 50+ passing attempts from Detroit, & a higher scoring game. Thinking Detroit+pts, ml, team o20 & game over could all be solid plays. Chicago should be able to score a couple on Forte plays, & Orton dare I say has looked ok lately.

God help us, but I like the Lions too. Sure, they've looked bad, but they've only played one home game so far, against a very good GB team, and they were actually leading that game in the 4th before collapsing. Bears have the 28th ranked pass defence, and I think Detroit throws all over them.

Other games I'll be playing is:

Arizona. I've been backing the Bills all year so far, but this is a perfect spot for the Bills to finally get beat, across the country in Zona. The Cards have only played one home game, a blowout of Miami, and should be back in a comfort zone after playing (and living) 2 straight weeks on the East Coast. Despite his fumbleitis, Warner has played well this year throwing the ball, and the Bills look to be missing their best CB McGee this week. He'll be missed in the secondary AND on special teams where the Bills are already without Roscoe Parrish.

Bucs. Tampa getting no respect again. We have a very good defence against a ****ty defence. I'll take the points with the good defence.

Cowboys. I might just lay the 17. Dallas should take out Cincy in a big way after losing at home to Washington. Unless Cedric Benson runs for a couple TDs (lol) I see a 20+ point win with the Boys trying to flex their muscles. You just know they want a blowout here, and will definitely be playing aggressively on offence. Public seems to be on Cincy so far....because 17 points is definitely alot! But is it wrong? I think Dallas keeps the pedal down all game. Maybe a Dallas team over is a play. Or a tease.

Philly Perfect letdown spot for Washington, and how tough is it to win b2b road games in Dallas and Philly? Wow. If they could do that, they'd have to be the NFC frontrunner. I don't see it.

[Underdog88]

Daft- Fading the Titans would definitely be tough to do right now. I won't wager on the Bills game see last week's thread why lol. Conflict of interests, but I will say it's tough to win b2b road games in the NFL. IMO if you were to play the Cards, it could be wiser to play them 1sth. The Bills have came out very pedestrian in the last two 1st halves. That TB/Den under could be a winner, but the Denver D is really bad. Haven't looked into the Eagles that far, but if Westbrook looks to be healthy, I'll likely be on them. Letdown spot for the Skins but a tough divisional game. :thumbs:


Billy- I see what you're thinking. You're right, on the road vs a good passing team this will be their biggest test yet....

[Underdog88]

Starting to get into the totals- here is what jumps out at me for this week.


Colts/Texans o46.5- already touched on it

Lions team o20- ditto

Seahawks/NYG u43- defensive battle here. No Plex to stretch the field, I expect a heavy dose of the run game on both sides. Giants off a bye & nearly lost to the Bengals previous. Seahawks also off a bye, & probably a little more optimistic after getting the run game going. I don't think the Giants D has really been tested much, having played the Skins (who looked listless in their first game), the Rams & Bengals. I am starting to warm up to the Seahawks here. 7.5 is too much to me, also like the Giants team total u24.5. Tough to fade the Giants with the Hawks on the road though....


Steelers/Jags o36- Good defense doesn't always mean lower scores, see the MNF game. With all the injuries to the Steelers rbs, paired with the sketchy o-line, I have to think Big Ben is going to be very pass happy. The Jax D is vastly overrated imo. Shaub carved them up last week 29-40 307 3 tds. I think even with lack of protection, Big Ben will be able to move the ball. Both teams off ot wins, more people down on Pitt though it seems. One thing I like about Pitt is they have double revenge having lost twice to them last year. By the way, both meetings went over 50 pts. Garrard is starting to show signs of life, & as always the run game should be able to move Jax. Jax home games always seem to have a way of ending up higher scoring, regardless of how good the defenses are. Since 2006, 14 of their 18 home games totaled 36 or more. Leaning hard on the over, Pitt team o17 & maybe some ml.


Cincy/Dallas o44- if Carson was in it would be a definite over play for me. I still like it, but not as much. Dallas team over is 30.5 & they may get it. If Cincy covers it sails over.

[Billy The Kid]

Saints thinking UD was on the fact that Minny has faced a slowed Colts passing off. with Peyton not 100% and two teams in Carolina and Tenn. who pound the run. The other game was against Green Bay and Rodgers first start. Brees is throwing for an avg. of 335 yrds. a game. Against TB the toughest D hes faced thus far this year 343 and 3 TD's 1 INT only being sacked 1 time. Minn will be a tougher challenge and I do expect AP to shine. I just feel more comfortable backing Brees than I do Uncle Gus if it comes down to throwing the ball for the win. Will look into this game more closely as the week progresses.

[daft_picks]

I love Tampa as underdogs this week. I think they can win this game SU, but the +3 is nice. Also love that under 48 as well Denver sputtered last week and surely will do better but not by much.

NYG -7 over seahawks, this is a play I will likely make, Seahawks have not looked that great this season and I know the Giants almost lost too the Bungles but I think they'll win here.

I like the Eagles as well. Arizona is an interesting play too, favored against an undefeated team this line is screaming for Bills money. Might see what happens on the line and make an anti-public play.

I'll say this again to all those out there, don't bet against the Titans just yet. True the Ravens have been playing good ball but both of these defenses are exceptional. The titans run game is better though and they have a seasoned QB leading them versus arookie. Again not saying you should run out and play on the titans -3 (I will for a unit of course) but I think there are better plays this week either way. The Ravens are a fierce rival of the Titans and I think they get it done again before they head to their bye week. Just sayin.

Going to post a few plays that I already made, some mentioned above. BOL to all this weekend :thumbs:

[Underdog88]

I tend to agree with you on the first 2 picks Billy, but not with the Saints.

Below average pass D? I definitely disagree with that. Peyton was the only qb this season to throw over 200 yards vs them. He had 311, but just 1 td & 2 ints. In 4 games they have allowed 2 tds. Antoine Winfield is one of the bet cbs in the game when healthy, one of the best tacklers too. The Saints are allowing 5.2 ypc, Peterson will be in the spotlight & is averaging 5.1 ypc. After facing two tough run D's in games vs the Panthers/Titans, the Saints D is gonna have their hands full. IMO a bigger edge than the Saints passing game over the Vikes pass D.

[yomonte]

Again I'm going with a total in this discussion. TB defense should be enough to stop Den. This total is already moved to 48 and moving in the wrong direction IMO. Strictly TB keeping Den from scoring. I'll be getting this game on the tube and after the half should be going "TICK TOCK"