Week 6 Discussion

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Can't seem to pull the trigger on the Bears- really like them, but my concerns are....

1. This is the Bears 2nd straight road game-always tough to win 2 consecutive roadies.

2. Line dropped down to 2, I kind of expected it to sit at 3 & it's seemingly begging for Bears money.

3. I hate playing against home dogs.

Bears are my favourite play of the week.

They played consecutive road game to start the year...beat Indy, then really hung tough in Carolina against a very good Panthers team. Atlanta is not very good.

Not sure where you're seeing 2. The lines I see at the 5 or 6 books I check are all +3 juiced or +2.5 dogged. Pinny opened at -1, and is now at -3 +109. Works out to pretty much the same, or movement slightly against the Bears. There probably isn't huge movement b/c of the Falcons being back home after a win over the popular Packers (although I think the win isn't as solid as some b/c of Packer injuries).

Falcons are strictly a running team with a below average defence. bears stop the run with the best of 'em, and have a very much improved offence with Orton at QB this year. No brainer for me.

[hodown]

How exactly is Seattle giving points to GB??? They are 1-3 with the only win coming against the worst team in the NFL, and in the other 3 games they gave up 34 @ Buffalo, 33 at home to SF, and 44 @ NYG. The Seattle defense is 27th overall, 25th against the pass, and 24th against the run.

GB with the 11th best total offense and Rodgers will play. GB has not been stellar against the rush, but Seattle won't take advantage. GB has lost 3 in a row, but two of them they were suppose to lose, and the other loss was to a capable team in Atlanta, that provides a bad matchup groundwise.

The over makes a nice play provided that Seattle can hold up their end of the bargain, but the only possible advantage for Seattle I can see is that they are at home. Seattle isn't making the playoffs and they know it, GB still has a chance. I think the game is bigger for GB, I think they're the better team (though they are both dinged up), and they're getting points.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I too lean GB, but I am starting to think the over may be the better option- or even the Packers team total. Seattle D has been terrible, allowing 523 total yards offense to NYG (254 on the ground), 365 to SF, 338 to Buffalo. 30+ pts allowed in 3 of their 4 games. Their pass D has allowed 7 tds just 1 int, & a 8.4 average pass completion! The only time Seattle has been able to score is when they got the rushing attack going. This is my main concern with backing the Packers, as they continue to be unable to stop the run. 5.1 ypc/161 per game is just terrible, & with Hasselchoke banged up you can bet there will be plenty of focus on the run game. Not that Seattle is that much better vs the run, allowing 4.6/129.5 per game. Seattle was able to run well in 2 games (169 rushing SF/245 vs St Louis), I would put GB in the same grouping as these 2 when it comes to run stopping. They were blown out when Buff & NYG shut the run down ... they also got Ingram back, which at this point is huge. Both teams are in a must win situation, I think it results in a bunch of scoring.

Funny...I was thinking the same thing. I've been totally off the packers side play for a couple days, but the Over might be enticing. I think both teams air it out...(Hasselbeck pending)

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

UD, lol!


Rethinking Indy/Balt. I think I like the Ravens getting 4/4.5. My only reasoning for Indy earlier was that they were "due" for a "colt-like" performance at home? lol...weak.

Facts are, they cannot run the ball, they cannot stop the run worth a ****. They are dead last in both catagories. Making things worse is the fact they will be missing starting LB Session this week, and Dwight Freeney is likely out as well. The Colts OLine is weak, and now their defence is even weaker. The Colts without Saunders already. Now another linebacker, and maybe Freeney?

The Ravens CAN run the ball, and should all day against the Colts defence! The Ravens CAN play defence, ranked #1 in the league, and should manhandle the Colts OLine, and frustrate Manning with pressure, as well as providing good coverage by one of the top secondaries. It's simply the basics of football = the Ravens should be able to control the clock. How many times do the best and worst running games (on BOTH sides of the ball) meet up?

At 2-2, Balitmore has been in every game, and their two losses were both against good teams (Pit/Ten), and were only by a measly FG (a cover and push). I'm not in love with Flacco, but with the way they should be able to run the ball, he just needs to be "OK". I think he will be, especially without Freeney bothering him. I really think this is a sucker line for the home Colts, even though they matchup horribly against Baltimore...and I believe it is mostly because of the theory I originally posted halfassed....that the "Colts are due" at home. **** that. This is a team that could (should?) be 0-4, and are in a bad matchup. Peyton is not god.

Love the Ravens this week, and I never like the Ravens! Hate the Colts this week, and I rarely hate the Colts! lol...that tells me it's the right side. :thumbs:

Also...isn't 60% of the public on Indy, and the line has gone from -6 to -4, and still dropping?

[Underdog88]

Can't seem to pull the trigger on the Bears- really like them, but my concerns are....

1. This is the Bears 2nd straight road game-always tough to win 2 consecutive roadies.

2. Line dropped down to 2, I kind of expected it to sit at 3 & it's seemingly begging for Bears money.

3. I hate playing against home dogs.

[Underdog88]

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

I too lean GB, but I am starting to think the over may be the better option- or even the Packers team total. Seattle D has been terrible, allowing 523 total yards offense to NYG (254 on the ground), 365 to SF, 338 to Buffalo. 30+ pts allowed in 3 of their 4 games. Their pass D has allowed 7 tds just 1 int, & a 8.4 average pass completion! The only time Seattle has been able to score is when they got the rushing attack going. This is my main concern with backing the Packers, as they continue to be unable to stop the run. 5.1 ypc/161 per game is just terrible, & with Hasselchoke banged up you can bet there will be plenty of focus on the run game. Not that Seattle is that much better vs the run, allowing 4.6/129.5 per game. Seattle was able to run well in 2 games (169 rushing SF/245 vs St Louis), I would put GB in the same grouping as these 2 when it comes to run stopping. They were blown out when Buff & NYG shut the run down ... they also got Ingram back, which at this point is huge. Both teams are in a must win situation, I think it results in a bunch of scoring.

[Underdog88]

That Texans defence was dominant against the Colts, and will be fine against Miami, IMO.

This game reminds me alot of the Zona win last week. The road team coming in on a high (last week: Buff 4-0, this game: Miami 2 straight wins over BIG name teams), playing a home team coming off a couple tough losses (last week: Zona off two bad road losses including the 6 TD Farve show, this game: Houston winless with two late losses against Jax/Ind in their last two).


IMO they are a decent team with no luck.

(in the voice of Samuel L Jackson)....Oh wait, you're finished? Oh well than allow me to retort!



I was on the Texans last week as I liked the situation & though Houston could run on Indy- luckily I got a nice inflated line & bought a half to cover that debacle. I wouldn't go so far as to say the D dominated the Colts. The Colts averaged over 4 ypc, but they abandoned the run (17 run plays). There are some glaring differences between the Miami & Colts offense. The Colts aren't getting any protection for Manning, and are dead last in the NFL for rushing offense- 67 yards per game/ 3.6 ypc! Miami has found their rushing attack the past two games, & are averaging 4.3 ypc/ 126 per game for the season. They are also attempting the run 29 per (indy is averaging 18 attempts per game) which has in turn opened up the passing game.

The difference between this situation & the Cardinals one is that the Cards are actually a good football team at home. I think the sole edge the Texans have is that they are @ home & facing a team in a letdown situation. Just seems to me that regardless of the situation, the Texans find ways to lose... JMO

[hodown]

Starting to re-think Dallas -5. Dallas really has done nothing this year to earn a -5 spot on the road @ Arizona where they have won 7 of their last 9 at home. I still think Dallas is the better team and it is a pick the winner situation, but I'm thinking there may be better plays on the board than this one.

[hodown]

dont put your hard earned money on the lions. the line is huge but ****, detroit has lost by 13, 23, 18, and 27, to four teams that might be worse than the vikings. minny still in a must win situation at 2-3, id lay off that.

you make a good point on the colts, and the line continues to drop. i prob wont play a side because i am 0-3 against balt so far, but i dont think the colts move to 0-3 either.

im itching to fade denver, but the jax defense sure isnt doing much. i still think a small moneyline play isnt a bad bet

[Underdog88]

That's good because I'm due dammit:bitching:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Bears-2.5 over the Falcons.

Like the Bears too. Looks like we're on the same page this week. :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Another inflated line is the Giants. I'll be on the Browns for sure...

Me too...waiting on that one... :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I might be forced into a Colts play as well, as I have been fading the Ravens all year, and I agree that the Colts are due for a Colt-like performance at home.

Raiders would definitely be the play in that game, but I'm leaving it alone. Wouldn't surprise me if Brees went off at home after last week.

I wouldn't play Detroit if I was getting 20 points. They don't compete worth ****, and Minny is starting to roll...especially on defence...and Minny has looked good at home. I was in the early talk about playing Detroit last week, but wisely thought better of it. I'll do the same this week. It's not like Detroit plays tough, competes hard, and covers the number from time to time. They are 0-4 ATS this year, and have only won ATS ONCE in their last 12 games. Better games on the board, IMO. Why risk money on a bad team on the road playing a good defence.

[Underdog88]

Another inflated line is the Giants. I'll be on the Browns for sure...

[Underdog88]

Bears-2.5 over the Falcons. I hate small road chalk, but the Bears have a great defense vs the run, allowing 74 ypg. Situationally the Falcons are in a letdown spot after winning su as dogs @GB. Linesmakers are saying something by making the Bears faves. The Falcons go as Turner does, just look at their wins/losses....


Turner in Falcons wins

220 vs Lions
104 vs KC
121 vs GB


Turner in losses

42 @TB
56 @Car


I would put the Bears defense in the second category. Defensively, the Falcons are still very weak vs the run, allowing 4.6ypc/ 125. Chicago lost to 2 solid defensive teams @Carolina & vs TB, both by 3 points. They have been very impressive on the road so far this season, & with the advantage in the ground game I'll likely roll with them here...