Week 6 Discussion

[Underdog88]

Anyone have a take on Baltimore/Indy?


I have a hard time believing the Colts will fall to 0-3 at home. The Ravens have dropped 2 in a row, & now have to go on the road after a late collapse. The Colts managed to pull out the win @ Houston despite being outplayed for 85% of the game. Have to think the Colts have an edge motivation wise. The Ravens have a great defense, but if you ask me this total is set way too low. I'm seeing 38.5, which looks flat out silly for a Colts game. The Ravens held Pitt to 168 passing yards/69 rushing, but the Steelers still managed to score 23 points. Leaning Colts & over.



IMO there are some very inflated inflated lines this week....


Raiders+7.5- Exactly what has NO shown this season to be favored by 7.5? They beat SF by 14 & TB by 4. The Raiders got blown out by Denver in week 1, but have since been in every game. They ran all over KC, nearly beat the Bills on the road & blew the cover vs SD. I will give NO the edge in the passing game, given they are #1 in the NFL. However, if there's one very positive thing about JaMarcus it's that he's thrown just one int. The Saints are careless with the football, & to me that's a red flag when thinking about laying points. Oakland has a solid pass defense, allowing 212 5tds/ 5 ints. The Saints 244 7tds/ 4 ints. When it comes to the run game, Oakland has the potential to get to the Saints. Oakland is averaging 4.8 ypc/155 per game vs a D that's giving up 4.5 ypc/ 105 per game. The Vikings IMO were very predictable with the run game. Oakland has been good at using Bush out of the backfield, something Minny didn't do at all....


Detroit+13 God they are terrible. But 13 in a divisional game? Looks like an overreaction to both the Lions beating at the hands of the Bears & the Vikings win @NO. The Vikings pass D is the weakness, something the Lions should be able to exploit. Brees threw for 330 yards & it looked rather easy. Turnovers will be the difference here. I just don't think this line is right.... high number total wise, but I really can't make much of a case for the under.

[FlyersFan]

I didn't want to corrupt JML's thread with Eagles talk but.......

The Eagles best defensive game was when they faced off against the human sleestak and the steelers. That dude moves like a concrete statue and they just teed off on him that night. But i really wasn't impresssed with the Eagles D vs. the Bears or the Redskins, especially in the 2H vs. the Skins. They gave up almost 400 yards to Washington. Not to mention they couldn't come close to stopping DAL in that game in week 2. SF has a capable offense, but a suspect D i do agree. This is also a huge game for the 49'ers as that division they are in is junk, IMO even with ARI playing well. So it could be argued that it is a must win for them as well. It's hard to trigger a team that just gave up 200 yards on the ground and facing a good back like Gore.

Butttt....they do have a large statistical advantage on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball in terms of yardage and PPG for and against. I really would like to play the Eagles but they've really only played one good defensive game this year and that was versus pittsburgh (not counting STL who just sucks......i could round up 10 dudes from here and we could hold STL to 7 points).

[FlyersFan]

stif/JML- thanks........i just put in the over play and holding off on the other 2 plays. may also see if i can get a team Over on the Cards as that should be discounted with a total at 50 and ARI -5....should be able to get about 22 1/2 on ARI which is a steal, IMO. Probably a better play than the game over.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'd hit the Over right now. It's gone from 48.5 to 49.5 at all my places...and will likely be 50/50.5 by gametime!

I'd wait on the Chargers and Bengals.

SD has gone to 5.5 already from all I can see, and we might get 5 by gametime. Like Stif says, Pats off their first good win, getting points, it'll move in our favour.

Bengals line should go to 6.5, and I might buy to 7 regardless. Farve off a 6 TD afternoon, facing the hapless Bengals. I see 63% on NY right now.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think you will be able to get at least -5.5 on SD if you are patient and shop around. the public seems to like NE and the points...and after last week, i can see why, although I think they're wrong.

There's 86% on the ARI/DAL over right now. I can get it at 49.5 (SIA), but most places are already @ 50. It opened at 48.5, and I doubt the public is gonna do too much betting on the under in that game, so i really doubt it goes lower than what it is now, and 51 certainly isn't out of the question imo if the public keeps hammering the over.

No idea what CIN/NYJ will do. 2 bad teams, and it's hard to really figure who is going to piut their money where....but since it hasn't moved down yet, i doubt it will. I think you can wait that out and see if it goes up, and still at the very worst get +6 on game day.

Just some guesses judging by early public %'s and what the lines have done so far...

[FlyersFan]

i am going to make a play on SDG this week and the Over in the ARI game. Anyone have a feel for which way those lines may go? Neither one has moved in the last 24 hours. I am also jumping on the Mean Machine this week, but that line is +6 still and something tells me i might even catch a 7 later in the week or by the weekend.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

GB pretty banged up however... might lay off...

[FlyersFan]

ARI has actually won like 12 of L13 at home or something like that.......and put up 20+ points in 13 straight home games. Im still not sold on their D, though, and i think the Over is the best play of all in this one. DAL will get their points as will ARI here.

[Stifler's Mom]

IMHO, Arizona being home dogged to Dallas is a joke. I know i'm in the minority here from what I've been reading, but I think absolutely the wrong team is favored there. Arizona's offense might be BETTER than the Cowboys, or nearly as good. In addition, Dallas is the 3rd best team in their own division!! There's no question that to this point NYG and WASH have been far superior.

Both QB's are ******* turnover machines though, and that disturbs me....but Dallas IS without a doubt overrated this year due to last year's success and a big offense.

Dickhead Owens is starting his same old **** again, and the Cowboys will plummet as a result. They've done nothing this year to earn that 4-1 record, as every team they have beaten is average or just plain ****ty (CLE and CIN? Gimme a break!! Even GB ain't really ****, and PHI hasn't looked too hot either). IMO Dallas is still riding last year's reputation, and for them to be almost a TD road fave against a team with as many or more weapons as them on offense is wrong.

In addition, Arizona is young and hungry and playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed at the NYJ, and imo beats Dallas outright, possibly by double digits if the 'Boys play at the same level that they have so far this year.

Arizona +6 was another one of those "holy ****, i can't believe this line" situations for me when I saw it....much like the NYG only laying a measly -7 to the ****hawks last week, and that'll be the game imo that breaks up everyone's parlays and teasers when Arizona wins outright....as there's at least one of them just about every week where a fave gets pounded in the arse and loses outright, and usually a road fave that looks like an easy winner to Joe Q Pub. Off the top of my head there have been DEN @ KC 2 wks ago, PHI @ home to WSH and SD @ MIA this week. "America's team" over the "****ty Cardinals who have sucked since they came into existace" without a doubt fits this to a "T".

The only way Arizona doesn't cover, imo, is if they kill themselves with turnovers, which of course is certainly possibly considering who their QB is, lol....but nevertheless, that is without a doubt my favorite play on the board this week. I would 100% certainly take Arizona all the way to -3, and would strongly consider them to -7.

I too must admit that I think the Bungles get win #1 this week and that I will probably be forced to play them, as I think the Jets suck as bad or worse as CIN, lol, and I think SD waxes NE also with what, quadruple revenge at this point? Beating SF with 2 weeks to prepare doesn't exactly prove to me NE is back on the map, and I think they fall on their faces again this week.

Well those are the 3 that jumped out to me at first glance over the card. I'll have to do my homework on the rest i guess, lol

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Hou has been giving up 4.5 ypc which is less than stellar. However, they're only giving up 4.1 ypc to opposing teams rbs. The difference in the numbers is subtracting qb scrambling and wr reverses. Parker definitely got to Hou in the first game, but since then Hou has only given up 3.76 ypc to rbs, or 84 ypg. I guess I'm massaging numbers to help my point of view, but I think they'll do better than their numbers indicate being at home, and that defense held the Colts to 10 until 4:00 left

Yeah, I was surprised to see that Hou defensive rushing stat from UD, because watching that whole game last week, Houston looked amazing against the run for the most part of that game. Addai could do absolutely nothing at all. In fact the CBS put up numerous stats, and talked numerous times about how good the Hou run defence was playing that day, forcing Peyton to throw, even on rushing downs. That Texans defence was dominant against the Colts, and will be fine against Miami, IMO.

This game reminds me alot of the Zona win last week. The road team coming in on a high (last week: Buff 4-0, this game: Miami 2 straight wins over BIG name teams), playing a home team coming off a couple tough losses (last week: Zona off two bad road losses including the 6 TD Farve show, this game: Houston winless with two late losses against Jax/Ind in their last two).

I also don't think it hurts to have Schaub coming back after watching last game. He must have confidence in his team looking in from the bench, and seeing them take it to Indy, and the week off might help his play too.

IMO they are a decent team with no luck. I mean, look at their schedule. 3 road games in Jax/Pit/Ten. A hurricane. Pretty damn brutal. Then finally a home game against Peyton Manning where the dominate the game for 55 minutes. I'll call that a win for capping purposes. I'll be on Houston, as they don't let this home game slip away.

[hodown]

Hou has been giving up 4.5 ypc which is less than stellar. However, they're only giving up 4.1 ypc to opposing teams rbs. The difference in the numbers is subtracting qb scrambling and wr reverses. Parker definitely got to Hou in the first game, but since then Hou has only given up 3.76 ypc to rbs, or 84 ypg. I guess I'm massaging numbers to help my point of view, but I think they'll do better than their numbers indicate being at home, and that defense held the Colts to 10 until 4:00 left

[Underdog88]

Agree with the Zona over- with Boldin out Breaston & Doucet have stepped it up, & Dallas secondary is not good. Thinking both teams get 24 each at least.



Totally disagree with the Texans. IMO they have to be favored since they are at home & nearly beat the Colts. Though the Fins just beat NE & SD, they still seem to be flying under the radar. Great run defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc/ 82 ypg. Houston rushed for 156 vs Indy, I don't think that happens vs the Fins. IMO teams that stop the run will be able to beat the Dolphins, & Houston doesn't fall into that category (next week, the Ravens will beat the ever loving **** out of the Dolphins). In Miami's first two losses, they didn't have a rusher over 28 yards. In their last two wins, Brown went for 113 vs NE, & 125 vs SD. The Texans are allowing 4.5/140 ypg! Addai averaged over 4 ypc last week vs Houston, I would expect a ton of running from the Fish. Leaning heavily on the Dolphins ML there.

I am also likely laying the points with the Chargers @ home. Was hoping for a softer line, but at least it's under a td.



Just started looking into totals....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Dal -5 looks like the best play on board...I still think we haven't see the full explosiveness of their offense and if Zona doesn't put points on the board early...it could get ugly for them.


I also lean to Cincy as well as I believe the pick-up a W this sunday...but dallas is the only play I've already put in.


GL

yeah...****....I'll probably be on Dallas as well... :bang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

except week 1 vs. the Ravens.......:beerbang:......trying to distance yourself from your early bengals play this year.....:ohman:
...

:laughing: Did I? Musta been a fade of the Ravens.
Maybe I should learn from that result!

[FlyersFan]

I don't think I've backed Cincy in 2 years

except week 1 vs. the Ravens.......:beerbang:......trying to distance yourself from your early bengals play this year.....:ohman:

like your reasoning a lot on the HOU game, though, seems like everyone is on it which i never like......