Week 6 Discussion

[Q-Unit]

Just a great post. Great discussion thread this week

your hatred for the Cowboys is dully noted :laughing:

[FlyersFan]

Pretty much nailed em all, save Cincy who were without Palmer. Great job! :cheery:

thanks....:beerbang:...like the discussion threads.....i didn't end up on CIN but when we were discussing this i don't think anyone knew that CIN would be without Palmer....

[Underdog88]

IMHO, Arizona being home dogged to Dallas is a joke. I know i'm in the minority here from what I've been reading, but I think absolutely the wrong team is favored there. Arizona's offense might be BETTER than the Cowboys, or nearly as good. In addition, Dallas is the 3rd best team in their own division!! There's no question that to this point NYG and WASH have been far superior.

Both QB's are ******* turnover machines though, and that disturbs me....but Dallas IS without a doubt overrated this year due to last year's success and a big offense.

Dickhead Owens is starting his same old **** again, and the Cowboys will plummet as a result. They've done nothing this year to earn that 4-1 record, as every team they have beaten is average or just plain ****ty (CLE and CIN? Gimme a break!! Even GB ain't really ****, and PHI hasn't looked too hot either). IMO Dallas is still riding last year's reputation, and for them to be almost a TD road fave against a team with as many or more weapons as them on offense is wrong.

In addition, Arizona is young and hungry and playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed at the NYJ, and imo beats Dallas outright, possibly by double digits if the 'Boys play at the same level that they have so far this year.

Arizona +6 was another one of those "holy ****, i can't believe this line" situations for me when I saw it....much like the NYG only laying a measly -7 to the ****hawks last week, and that'll be the game imo that breaks up everyone's parlays and teasers when Arizona wins outright....as there's at least one of them just about every week where a fave gets pounded in the arse and loses outright, and usually a road fave that looks like an easy winner to Joe Q Pub. Off the top of my head there have been DEN @ KC 2 wks ago, PHI @ home to WSH and SD @ MIA this week. "America's team" over the "****ty Cardinals who have sucked since they came into existace" without a doubt fits this to a "T".

The only way Arizona doesn't cover, imo, is if they kill themselves with turnovers, which of course is certainly possibly considering who their QB is, lol....but nevertheless, that is without a doubt my favorite play on the board this week. I would 100% certainly take Arizona all the way to -3, and would strongly consider them to -7.

Just a great post. Great discussion thread this week

[Underdog88]

did pretty well with my early thoughts last week so wanted to get some thoughts on a couple of games....

CIN +6...........i honestly think they win this game SU. If i could grab 7 i would feel even better. Probably worth a ML play, IMO too.

SDG -6............for a team that was supposed to be in the Super Bowl or have a chance, they've played like **** this year. Here we go again with another must win at home. NEP heading west for a 2nd straight week and not sure they cover B2B weeks. If you like the pick the winner thing then i like SDG here.

JAX/DEN Under 48 1/2............i just think this line is high by about 4-5 points. If you like the Over i would say that DEN is the play then because the only way i can see JAX staying in this one is keeping it a 23-17, 23-20 sort of game. Otherwise if it becomes a shootout i like DEN. I think they have more weapons. both teams have sucked ass vs. the number ATS at 1-4 so something has to give.


also wanted to hear some thoughts on that CHI/ATL game. ATL grabbing 2 1/2 looks great if they are the same team that won on the road last week in GB. CHI is playing some good football, though.

DAL/ARI Over49/50........The other intriguing game is the DAL/ARI game at ARI +5/50. DAL doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone and that doesn't bode well for laying 5 points against a team that has scored 20+ points in i believe 12 of their L13 games total and in 13 straight at home dating back to 2006. Total at 50 looks kind of steep but if ARI gets into the 20's again i don't see why this doesn't go over the total. But playing overs in games with 50 point totals isn't exaclty a recipe for success. I could see a 30-24/30-27/27-24 type of game here which makes me lean over even though the total is kind of high. Felt the same way last week about IND/HOU and that one managed to get over the total.

Pretty much nailed em all, save Cincy who were without Palmer. Great job! :cheery:

[Underdog88]

***Injury Report***


Looks like Hasselbeck won't play today, Frye will take his place. Line hasn't reacted yet which tells me the books are taking a stand on Seattle. With frye in I can no longer contemplate the over. I think if Seattle wins it's from the ground game anyway.....


Judging from practice, it looks like Freeney & Sesson will both play. They are both listed as questionable, but participated in full practice on Friday....

[Underdog88]

I really think this is a sucker line for the home Colts, even though they matchup horribly against Baltimore...and I believe it is mostly because of the theory I originally posted halfassed....that the "Colts are due" at home. **** that. This is a team that could (should?) be 0-4, and are in a bad matchup. Peyton is not god.

I'm going to be a sucker today & roll with the Colts. I faded them vs Jax & grabbed the Texans last week @+5.5, but I think this is a statement game for them. Bought -3-120 earlier in the week & I'm keeping it. Though the obvious problem with the Colts defensively is the run D, I don't trust Flacco in his first dome road game vs the Colts. No surprises when the Colts throw 8 in the box & the Ravens run 38 times. The Colts run D has been this bad before, they were worse in 2006 when they won the SB (allowing 5.3 ypc). The Vikings were in a better spot to beat the Colts earlier this year, having the best run d, a better run game than Balty & being @ home. The Colts still won. Bottom line the Ravens will have to show some kind of offensive balance to have a shot at winning, & there will be some situations where Flacco will need to step up. After looking long at the total, I have to trust the linesmakers & lay off. I want so badly to play the over, but it seems too easy to me. I do think if anyone is sold on the Ravens, I would think the over is the better option. As good as the Ravens D is, Peyton is better. The biggest thing I like about backing the Colts is that they are never out of a game. Peyton is not god, but he is the best qb I have ever seen play the game of football. He's also getting back into the flow of things, I think the Marvin connection could get back on track today.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Eagles lead the league in sacks, SF leads the league in sacks allowed. I like the Philly defence to win this game for the Eagles, and I have McNabb having a big day against that bad Niner defence, Westbrook or not...

[Daws1089]

westbrook, sean andrews, and reggie brown are all out for the eagles. Kevin Curtis is expected to get some action.


Anyone else think the rams are worth looking at? I know they are god awful and dont deserve anyones money, but I have a hard time believing the skins get up for this game. I can see this game also staying low scoring and a win no cover for wash.


I also see the public likes carolina. In a division game with two good defenses playing eachother, both teams favor the run, and garcia is back in for TB. I like the under a lot, but I think TB is worth a look too. Carolina has been flying high, but I just don't know if I can play them. It could be best to just go with the under as I'm having a hard time with a side.


Haven't seen anyone talk about the bengals/jets really. Fitspatrick is in, but I still think the bengals can win. Not sure if I like the total, but lean to the under.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Report: Winslow has swollen testacles

From Roto:

A league source tells Profootballtalk.com that Kellen Winslow's "unspecified illness" is swollen testicles.

Yikes. No one has ever accused Winslow of lacking big cajones, and they certainly won't now. Okay, probably a matter to joke about. A team source reportedly told the Cleveland Plain Dealer that they still expect Winslow to play. Winslow practiced Monday, but has since been held out of workouts. Cautiously keep Winslow in your lineup and wait for more news

:laughing:

[Underdog88]

I'm seeing Palmer is questionable, damn him. I needed a qb so I traded Slaton/Garrard for Maroney/Palmer. How dumb. Got garrard back from waivers, but I gave up Slaton for basically nothing now. :puke:



One other thing about GB/Sea- AJ Hawk may not play. If he is out, IMO GB is in trouble....

[hodown]

looks like Palmer is out...

[hodown]

My book still has +1.5 but same thing pretty much. Youre right they could take advantage, but they'll need to take advantage in a rather large way to keep up with GB imo. Seattle is technically in the race still b/c we are so early, but they've shown no signs as of yet that they're going to start playing some football.

I'm just not sure what linesmakers are seeing out of them. A pick-the-winner last wknd at the NYG??? The public isnt exactly pounding GB (sans WL and SB), but I wouldn't picture Seattle getting anymore money if they were a +3 instead of opening at a -3. It just seems like an odd line is what I'm saying.

[Underdog88]

GB has not been stellar against the rush, but Seattle won't take advantage.

Seattle isn't making the playoffs and they know it, GB still has a chance. I think the game is bigger for GB, I think they're the better team (though they are both dinged up), and they're getting points.

Playing devil's advocate here, but exactly why won't Seattle take advantage? They did against STL (245) & SF (169) in their other home games. SF statistically has a better run D than GB!

I still wouldn't be so sure Seattle is out of contention for the playoffs in that abortion of a division. Zona has their tougher games on deck & could go 8-8. Who knows what SF really is. Looks like the game is now a pickem....

[Underdog88]

Not sure where you're seeing 2. The lines I see at the 5 or 6 books I check are all +3 juiced or +2.5 dogged. Pinny opened at -1, and is now at -3 +109. Works out to pretty much the same, or movement slightly against the Bears. There probably isn't huge movement b/c of the Falcons being back home after a win over the popular Packers (although I think the win isn't as solid as some b/c of Packer injuries).

Earlier today I saw 5Dimes had them -2-115 available, right now-2-120. Betus has the Bears now @-3.5. Whatever, I'm playing them :sm:

[Underdog88]

Total has dropped in that one too. Just waiting to see if Hasselbeck is a definite go. If not, I may just be on the Pack team over. Currently it's 21.5, would love the flat 21 though.


Cards are 6.5 @ Betus. I think I have to play it... maybe I can get +7