Week 6 Discussion

[SRN1985]

Dal -5 looks like the best play on board...I still think we haven't see the full explosiveness of their offense and if Zona doesn't put points on the board early...it could get ugly for them.


I also lean to Cincy as well as I believe the pick-up a W this sunday...but dallas is the only play I've already put in.


GL

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I don't think I've backed Cincy in 2 years, but I might this week. Would love a full TD. Cincy has actually hung with Dallas, Cle, NYG & Bal this year. Palmer looks to be getting healthier, likely the reason for all his early struggles. And the Bengals might actually matchup well against Farve and the Jets one-dimensional offence with their surprising 6th ranked pass defence. Jets likely over-valued after Farve's much publicized 6 TD afternoon at home against a bad Zona secondary.

Also looking at backing Houston coming off that heartbreaker playing again at home looking for their first win. Oddsmakers must think the Texans win this one making a winless team lay a FG against a team with consecutive wins over high-profile teams.

I'll probably also be forced to fade Seattle again this week, even with GB coming in with 3 straight losses. I had a feeling the Hawks were going to take a huge step back this year, but they are still getting some line respect from past sucesses. How they can be favoured against anyone except STL/DET is beyond me. GB needs to stop their losing streak, and I think they do it.

[hodown]

Dolphins @ Texans -3
Haven't seen Mia play since the NYJ game, but it seems like they've done a 180. Mia coming off solid wins @ NE and at home vs. SD, in a game where SD travels across country on a second straight road game. Hou is not nearly as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, having played @ Pit, @ Ten, @ Jax, and Indy. Statistically Mia's SOS is higher, but I'm not sure how. Hou has been competitive in 3 straight, and I look for them to get redemption in front of the homecrowd after pissing on themselves in the last 4 minutes against Indy. I just dont trust Mia in this spot.

Bears -1 @ Falcons
Posting this at what I got it at Sunday night, understand its at -3 some places. I'm sure Atl will be the play for most smart bettors as a homedawg, because they can run the ball and play decent defense. Public hammering Chi but no surprise there. Being a Bears fan it could be a homer play, but I won't hesitate for one second to bet against them. Unlike other years, the rush defense for Chi is actually the strength, while they are getting gashed through the air. Chi forces Ryan to beat them, which I dont think hes ready to do just yet. Orton continues to get better on the off side of the ball for Chi, and they are averaging 26 points a game. Atl defense giving up 4.5 ypc, which wont get it done against a team that likes to run the ball. Solid win by Atl last week but I dont think they come up with two in a row. 24-17 type game for Chi imo.

Cowboys -5 @ Cards and over 50
Cowboys are 7-1-1 in the Romo era as a road fave of 7 or less. I'm sure the books know this and are trying to figure out a number that will even the action cuz they know the general public will jump on Dallas. 5 is a lot considering Dal defense this year, but I'm picking the winner. Defenses are very similar (crappy), and Dallas has the edge in offensive rushing. Arizona wont stop Dallas imo, and Ari is too one dimensional to put up the number of points they'll need to in order to win. I dont think Dallas is the class of the NFC, but I dont think theyll get trapped by Ariz either, b/c they're last two results have been less than desirable. I trust in Romo more than I trust in Warner.

[FlyersFan]

did pretty well with my early thoughts last week so wanted to get some thoughts on a couple of games....

CIN +6...........i honestly think they win this game SU. If i could grab 7 i would feel even better. Probably worth a ML play, IMO too.

SDG -6............for a team that was supposed to be in the Super Bowl or have a chance, they've played like **** this year. Here we go again with another must win at home. NEP heading west for a 2nd straight week and not sure they cover B2B weeks. If you like the pick the winner thing then i like SDG here.

JAX/DEN Under 48 1/2............i just think this line is high by about 4-5 points. If you like the Over i would say that DEN is the play then because the only way i can see JAX staying in this one is keeping it a 23-17, 23-20 sort of game. Otherwise if it becomes a shootout i like DEN. I think they have more weapons. both teams have sucked ass vs. the number ATS at 1-4 so something has to give.


also wanted to hear some thoughts on that CHI/ATL game. ATL grabbing 2 1/2 looks great if they are the same team that won on the road last week in GB. CHI is playing some good football, though.

DAL/ARI Over49/50........The other intriguing game is the DAL/ARI game at ARI +5/50. DAL doesn't seem to be able to stop anyone and that doesn't bode well for laying 5 points against a team that has scored 20+ points in i believe 12 of their L13 games total and in 13 straight at home dating back to 2006. Total at 50 looks kind of steep but if ARI gets into the 20's again i don't see why this doesn't go over the total. But playing overs in games with 50 point totals isn't exaclty a recipe for success. I could see a 30-24/30-27/27-24 type of game here which makes me lean over even though the total is kind of high. Felt the same way last week about IND/HOU and that one managed to get over the total.