***Week 7 Discussion Thread***

[Billy The Kid]

Any take on the SD/Buf game UD. Is there any word on if Edwards is going to start and if not do you think there is that much of a drop off with starting Losman this week? Initial lean was with the Chargers but still don't think they have proven much by beating a NE team that was on B2B road games and clearly over matched with SD having the revenge factor going. Any thoughts?

[Underdog88]

Any take on the SD/Buf game UD. Is there any word on if Edwards is going to start and if not do you think there is that much of a drop off with starting Losman this week? Initial lean was with the Chargers but still don't think they have proven much by beating a NE team that was on B2B road games and clearly over matched with SD having the revenge factor going. Any thoughts?

Edwards has been practicing, & I would not touch the Bills unless he was a go- there is a definite dropoff with JP, so much so that I would be forced to play on the Chargers should Trent be a no go. I too think SD didn't prove much by beating NE, as they are not good without Brady. period. I was on the Chargers vs the Jets & last week too, but I still think their D is overrated. I do have some worries about the Buffalo O-Line facing a 3-4 team, which for some reason they always seem to have trouble with. One thing that is for sure is that the Bills have played a much easier schedule. 1 win vs a team that will likely end up with a winning record (Jax). After this game they have 3 straight divisional games, imo a win here could give them huge momentum. I'm just not so sure they can handle the chargers offense...

[Daws1089]

I see addai is out atleast 2 weeks...


anyway, I'm not sure how I feel about the game, but the broncs/pats game is intriguing. NE gets embarrassed last week and just looked like crap. I like them to play better this week and broncs are usually not as good on the road. I think the total is too high too at 47.5 I look for a better defensive performance from NE.


any thoughts on sf +10.5?

[ONETIME!SPORTS]

I see addai is out atleast 2 weeks...


anyway, I'm not sure how I feel about the game, but the broncs/pats game is intriguing. NE gets embarrassed last week and just looked like crap. I like them to play better this week and broncs are usually not as good on the road. I think the total is too high too at 47.5 I look for a better defensive performance from NE.


any thoughts on sf +10.5?

The only problem I see with NE is if Denver gets up by 14 or more early, as bad as Denvers defense has looked, NE offense has looked as bad, if not worse. DEN is notoriuosly bad on the road, and they are not scoring near the points they were the first 3 weeks. I am making this game a no play in my eyes, or a slight lean to Den

SF +10.5 is tricky, if the G-Men had beaten CLE I would consider taking the 10.5, but that was a bad loss, and the Giants are coming home.

[recovering77]

Narrowing my play to 1 or two definites. Trying to play one 1 oclock game, but like only afternoon games really.

GB +1 against Indy. Remember guys, this is the same Indy team (minus Addai) that was down 15-0 to the Vikings, only to pull out a flukey last second win. Rodgers playing well, as I expected. Jennings coming of age as an elite receiver. Healthy Ryan Grant.

Oakland +3 against NYJ. People don't realize that Jamarcus Russell actually has a very good QB rating, he just barely throws it. Jet's defense is just terrible, and Raider's defense underrated. I think Javon Walker is finally gonna step up this game and surprise some people.

Buffalo +1. San Diego just had a statement game against New England, and face a Buffalo team that was exposed in their last game by the Cardinals. Really fishy line here. Surprised the public isn't pouring onto this one. Maybe Buffalo's record justifies the line.

Kansas City +8. I would be more comfortable here if the line was -6 or 6.5. Tenn lines are usually no more than -3 if they are favorites. Arrowhead is still one of the hardest placest to travel to and win. I think the safer play here is KC first half only. Last year same situation, but Tenn came back second half as KC fell apart. Not sure if they can sustain the momentum.

What do ya know, all home dogs =)

[Underdog88]

Love to hear the thoughts on this Saints angle. That game has me stumped, and is a no-play... seems like a good home team facing a questionable road team from afar...

As I stated before, this is a game I would normally be on the hometeam or no-play. The Panthers are off a road loss where they were dominated by TB. The Saints are off a dominating win over the Raiders, so situationally it seems as though the Panthers could have the edge. Something just doesn't sit right with the home team for me. Statistically, the Panthers have the #2 pass defense in the league, allowing just 158ypg. However, that number imo is skewed given they have played Chi, MIn, Atl, KC & TB. SD was the only team I would say is better than just efficient in the passing game, & Rivers threw for 217 & 3 tds. The Saints have the league's #1 pass offense, averaging 324 ypg 12tds 6 ints. Regarding run defense, these teams are very similar with NO giving up 103 ypg & Car allowing 105 ypg.

Last week TB jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, shutting down the run game (40 yds allowed) & rushing for 142 yds. I think that if the Saints jump out to an early lead, Carolina will have trouble recovering. Last season NO went into Carolina & won 31-6. I know Delhomme wasn't playing, but the Saints really ripped the Carolina D apart. I think the Saints have an edge in the passing game- Brees has thrown for over 300 yds in 5 of 6 games, & they have put up 24+ in all 6 games. I also think that in order to be considered an above average team, the Saints are going to have to win on the road. What better time to get a win than over a divisional opponent... I played the over in a teaser & parlay (bought down to 41), but also think a straight play looks solid.

[Underdog88]

GB +1 against Indy. Remember guys, this is the same Indy team (minus Addai) that was down 15-0 to the Vikings, only to pull out a flukey last second win. Rodgers playing well, as I expected. Jennings coming of age as an elite receiver. Healthy Ryan Grant.

This is the same team that was down 15-0 to the Vikings, then came storming back & won. This is the team that has finally gotten back to old form offensively, one that has so many offensive weapons that they made arguably the best defense in the game look like the Lions (sorry Larry) last week. I just don't see how beating the sorry ass Seahawks makes the Packers a live homedog this week. I would definitely wait, I bet a 3.5 may show up at some point.

[Eman885]

Just in, Larry Johnson is suspended for the game against the titans..get your bets in quick for the titans!!!

[Underdog88]

Just in, Larry Johnson is suspended for the game against the titans..get your bets in quick for the titans!!!

:nono:

[hodown]

Larry johnson or no larry johnson, they have capable backups. the big kicker is that croyle is playing, who is much more serviceable than Huard and the other guy. The Saints game is a tough one to call, as is the GB game. I'd love to take NO and Indy, but I dont believe I'd win in the long run by making plays on these teams in these situations. Small Saints moneyline play might be worth it, but other than that I just think there are better lines out there. NO, SD, and Indy all big public road teams that usually get bet up every week, wouldn't surprise me if 2 of these teams lost s/u.

[Underdog88]

any thoughts on sf +10.5?

I don't think this is a good spot to back them. Giants off a road loss, & a blowout at that. SF has been playing tough opponents lately, @NO vs NE, VS Philly, now they have to travel to NY?

To me the run game is the most important factor here. The Giants only ran the ball 25 times vs the Browns. The only other game where the Giants ran under 30 times was bs the Bengals (a no-cover for them as well). To me it's that simple- you have a great rb tandem in Jacobs & Ward, so use them! SF has allowed 100+ yards on the ground in every game played this season. Thing is, they have faced 1 team with an above average rushing offense. The Seahawks are ranked #5 in the NFL in rushing, and racked up 169 rushing yards. The next best rushing offense they faced was NE (#18 rank) & they ran for 144. Even #30 ranked Detroit rushed for 116! In addition, SF is allowing 27 ppg. I think the Giants come out charged defensively & run the ball 34+ times effectively. Already played the Giants in a parlay, may back them straight as well.....

[Underdog88]

***Injury report***


For those looking to back Buffalo.....


cb McGee is out

cb Youboty is a gametime decision

de Schobel- has has a protective boot on all week & didn't practice.

c- Fowler- didn't practice all week (elbow)


That would leave Greer & rookie McKelvin to start. McKelvin has really underperformed so far, & though SD will likely be without Chambers & Davis, IMO Jackson/Gates could still cause problems. Should Youboty miss today's game, the nickel package will suffer badly.

Schobel was regarded as the Bill's best pass rusher, but this season imo he's been awful. Could be that this injury is slowing him down, but he has always been pretty ineffective vs the run.

Fowler- this one scares me a ton. Should Fowler be a no go, the Bills will have to start Duke Preston. Either way, I think Jamal Williams has a huge advantage. Fowler hasn't practiced all week & Jamal is a beast- not a good combo if you ask me.

[Stifler's Mom]

I think everyone is over-analyzing the BUF/SD game.

SD has done nothing so far this year. Ok, they beat 3 bad teams. OAK, NYJ and NE (yes guys, NE is BAD without Tom Brady....and beating SF 2 weeks ago doesn't change that).

In addition, they had to be up for their shot to finally beat NE, and were once again in a must win @ home (seems like a recurring theme....possibly because they aren't that good and keep losing games they "should win" on the road?)

They didn't do **** vs Miami on OFFENSE (which is supposed to be their strong point)....and MIA is just another team which many are giving way way too much respect because they beat a few teams with this "wildcat formation" nonsense. They are better, but they were 1-15 last year too.

In addition SD is in a complete **** spot, with cross country travel, now having to face a team off a bye and who just laid a **** sandwich in ARIZ. Speaking of which, that loss for BUF was more predictable than another Pac Man Jones arrest. Before that game, so many were talking BUF up as such a great team, but now after that loss, many of the same people are guilty of thrashing them as "overrated".

BUF couldn't have been in a worse spot 2 wks ago vs ARIZ, and the spot couldn't have gotten any better for ARIZ. Let it go. it was one game. Stop flip flopping opinions of teams over one result like it defines a team for the whole season.

Forget what Buffalo has or has not done, or what they are or are not.....WHAT HAS SAN DIEGO DONE to justify this line? THEY are they ROAD TEAM, having to overcome a bad situational spot if they hope to win this afternoon, not Buffalo.....and if you cannot effectively answer that question, then you cannot possibly play on SD today.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Personally I'm not flip-flopping on Buffalo...I faded them last game, have had them over-rated for a while, and have thought those early wins were more of a fact of them playing injured or bad teams. You point out SD's wins, but Buffalo's are against just as weak competition, if not worse overall. I don't see how the over-rated, and very injured Buffalo defence stops the Chargers today. It's more of a fade of buffalo, than a backing of SD on the road, as I very much agree with you that it is not the best spot for them. Also...I think Edwards is more ****ed in the head than what they are saying...and that means there is a good possibility of your boy Losman playing in this game.

We know how you feel! lol.

[Stifler's Mom]

You still haven't answered my question about what San Diego has done this year that leads you to believe they can do anything vs BUF or anyone else??

And like i said, that ARIZ loss was probably the most predictable game of the entire season, not just for BUF, but for the entire NFL. Stevie Wonder and Helen Keller could have seen that coming.

My point is that I don't care what anyone thinks of BUF. You guys are capping SD as if this was 2007 or prior. The same SD team that is 3-3, and almost lost to OAK a few weeks back....an OAK team who many of the same people are saying is a complete piece of ****.

To say OAK sucks complete ass and is one of the worst teams int he NFL...so bad that the ****TY JETS are a good bet today playing them as a road fave, and then to turn around in the next sentence and say you're confident enough that SD is good enough to take it to Buffalo today that you're gonna lay your money down on them is a complete contradiction.

I gotta check back over this thread, but I think I also saw you say BUF should be -3.5 earlier in the week....