Thanks DBO!!! Dees Nuts.......... Lets hope we make it throught the LO!!!!!
General Conference Championship Round Trends
Visitors swept the ATS action for the first time since ’02 in last year’s conference title games. Not coincidentally, the combined pointspreads for the games of ’08, favorites by 21-1/2 points, marking the first time since the ’01-02 season that figure reached 20 or more. In general, home field advantage has meant very little once the teams reach this round, as since ’93, home teams are just 18-14 SU for 56%, the lowest winning percentage of any playoff round. Here are some other tidbits that could help you prepare for Sunday’s games:
• The Championship Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the highest scoring games in recent years as the last 14 contests have seen an average of 46.9 PPG scored. In that span, the OVER is on a strong run of 10-3-1, for 76.9%.
• The past 10 conference title games with totals set at 46 or higher have seen 8 OVER’s, 2 UNDER’s.
• NFC title games have been solid OVER bets, 11-4-1 since ’93.
• The road team leads the pointspread ledger in the conference championship round, 17-14-1 ATS since ’93.
• When a road team is favored in the conference championship round, it is nearly always successful lately, 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS since ’93. Similarly, when the road team has an equal or better record, that team is 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS.
• Road teams that have won 14 or more games on the season, including playoffs, boast a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in the championship round.
• Favorites of 9-1/2 points or more in conference title games are just 5-3 SU & 1-7 ATS in their L8 opportunities.
• Home favorites of 9-points or less are more successful than those laying more points, going 12-7 SU & ATS since ’93.
• In past conference championship games without double-digit pointspreads, the straight up winner is 24-0-1 ATS since ’93. In other words, for Sunday, if you pick the underdog, play the money line, if you side with the favorite, take comfort in laying the points.
• Road team wins have been far more common in the AFC, with eight in the past 16 conference championship games. Those visitors are also 9-6-1 ATS. In the NFC, home teams own a 10-6 SU record with an 8/8 split on the Vegas number.
• Including Green Bay’s loss a year ago, championship game home teams that are not #1 seeds are just 3-5 SU & 2-5-1 ATS since ’93.
• Non-divisional winners, or true “wildcard teams” boast an impressive 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in their L10 times reaching the conference championships. In this decade, they are 4-1 SU & ATS with four OVER’s on the total as well.
• Home Favorites of <=9.5 or dogs with 2+ more regular season wins than their opponent are 6-3 ATS in the championship round.
• The secret to the road underdog upset in the championship round has been defense. In these games, the home teams are being held to just 14.4 PPG by visitors that had been allowing 16.7 PPG. In other words, good defensive road teams are most capable of pulling upsets. In fact, road teams allowing less than 20 PPG on the season are 16-8-1 ATS.
• Compare the road upset trend to that of games won by the home team, in which the average score has been 30.1-15.9. In fact, 23 points is the magic number for home team success in the conference championships. In games where they score 23 or more, they are 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS (81%) since ‘93. In games where home teams don’t reach 23 points, they are an awful 4-12 SU & 1-14-1 ATS (7%)!
• For the road team in the championship round, success hinges on the modest 16-point mark. Those scoring 16 or more are 13-7 SU & 14-5-1 ATS, those producing 15 or less are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS
• Unlike the Wildcard & Divisional Rounds, the road team’s scoring is a better indicator of totals results. In past championship games where the visitors scored 20 or more points, the OVER is 14-2 since ‘93. In games where they fail to reach 20 points, the UNDER is 10-4-1.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including the playoff games of ’09. The records for the ’09 playoffs of each angle are also given along with the qualifying teams for this week’s games.
Keep in mind that these are purely raw stat based angles and don’t take into account any other betting scenarios, such as line range, situational factors, or experience. Using various stats, here are 18 different playoff betting trends that have produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results.
Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
Rushing Stats
• Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-19 ATS (56.8%)
Record in ’09: 1-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS (75.0%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 13-10 ATS (56.5%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 52-38 ATS (57.8%).
Record in ’09: 7-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS (64.1%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Passing Stats
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
Record in ’09: 2-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%)
Record in ’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
Record in ’09: 3-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS (40.7%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 17-5 ATS (77.2%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%)
Record in ’09: 5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%)
Record in ’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
Good luck. See ya in a couple of weeks to get ready for Super Bowl XLIII!
General Conference Championship Round Trends
Visitors swept the ATS action for the first time since ’02 in last year’s conference title games. Not coincidentally, the combined pointspreads for the games of ’08, favorites by 21-1/2 points, marking the first time since the ’01-02 season that figure reached 20 or more. In general, home field advantage has meant very little once the teams reach this round, as since ’93, home teams are just 18-14 SU for 56%, the lowest winning percentage of any playoff round. Here are some other tidbits that could help you prepare for Sunday’s games:
• The Championship Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the highest scoring games in recent years as the last 14 contests have seen an average of 46.9 PPG scored. In that span, the OVER is on a strong run of 10-3-1, for 76.9%.
• The past 10 conference title games with totals set at 46 or higher have seen 8 OVER’s, 2 UNDER’s.
• NFC title games have been solid OVER bets, 11-4-1 since ’93.
• The road team leads the pointspread ledger in the conference championship round, 17-14-1 ATS since ’93.
• When a road team is favored in the conference championship round, it is nearly always successful lately, 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS since ’93. Similarly, when the road team has an equal or better record, that team is 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS.
• Road teams that have won 14 or more games on the season, including playoffs, boast a 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in the championship round.
• Favorites of 9-1/2 points or more in conference title games are just 5-3 SU & 1-7 ATS in their L8 opportunities.
• Home favorites of 9-points or less are more successful than those laying more points, going 12-7 SU & ATS since ’93.
• In past conference championship games without double-digit pointspreads, the straight up winner is 24-0-1 ATS since ’93. In other words, for Sunday, if you pick the underdog, play the money line, if you side with the favorite, take comfort in laying the points.
• Road team wins have been far more common in the AFC, with eight in the past 16 conference championship games. Those visitors are also 9-6-1 ATS. In the NFC, home teams own a 10-6 SU record with an 8/8 split on the Vegas number.
• Including Green Bay’s loss a year ago, championship game home teams that are not #1 seeds are just 3-5 SU & 2-5-1 ATS since ’93.
• Non-divisional winners, or true “wildcard teams” boast an impressive 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS record in their L10 times reaching the conference championships. In this decade, they are 4-1 SU & ATS with four OVER’s on the total as well.
• Home Favorites of <=9.5 or dogs with 2+ more regular season wins than their opponent are 6-3 ATS in the championship round.
• The secret to the road underdog upset in the championship round has been defense. In these games, the home teams are being held to just 14.4 PPG by visitors that had been allowing 16.7 PPG. In other words, good defensive road teams are most capable of pulling upsets. In fact, road teams allowing less than 20 PPG on the season are 16-8-1 ATS.
• Compare the road upset trend to that of games won by the home team, in which the average score has been 30.1-15.9. In fact, 23 points is the magic number for home team success in the conference championships. In games where they score 23 or more, they are 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS (81%) since ‘93. In games where home teams don’t reach 23 points, they are an awful 4-12 SU & 1-14-1 ATS (7%)!
• For the road team in the championship round, success hinges on the modest 16-point mark. Those scoring 16 or more are 13-7 SU & 14-5-1 ATS, those producing 15 or less are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS
• Unlike the Wildcard & Divisional Rounds, the road team’s scoring is a better indicator of totals results. In past championship games where the visitors scored 20 or more points, the OVER is 14-2 since ‘93. In games where they fail to reach 20 points, the UNDER is 10-4-1.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including the playoff games of ’09. The records for the ’09 playoffs of each angle are also given along with the qualifying teams for this week’s games.
Keep in mind that these are purely raw stat based angles and don’t take into account any other betting scenarios, such as line range, situational factors, or experience. Using various stats, here are 18 different playoff betting trends that have produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results.
Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
Rushing Stats
• Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-19 ATS (56.8%)
Record in ’09: 1-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS (75.0%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 13-10 ATS (56.5%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 52-38 ATS (57.8%).
Record in ’09: 7-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS (64.1%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Passing Stats
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
Record in ’09: 2-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%)
Record in ’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
Record in ’09: 3-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS (40.7%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 17-5 ATS (77.2%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%)
Record in ’09: 5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%)
Record in ’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
Good luck. See ya in a couple of weeks to get ready for Super Bowl XLIII!
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